Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, January 02, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Ripe for Explosion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Browne
Bonds in 2009: A Tough Call - The second half of 2008 will be remembered as the era in which justifiably panicked investors fled the global equity markets and flooded into the bond markets, particularly the U.S. Treasury market. As I write this, the migration largely continues.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Investment Opportunity in Municipal Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Derrick
We all know that 2008 has been a rough year for virtually all investors, and the municipal market has not been immune. Municipals, however, have weathered the storm better than most asset classes. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 29, 2008
Grossly Overbought Bond Markets Continue Chugging Higher into New Year / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for an 8th consecutive week as the Long Bond future continues its unstoppable march higher. There are a couple of undercurrents that I would like to discuss heading into the New Year. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 28, 2008
U.S. Corporate Bonds Show Recovery Progress / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
Several US bonds types have mostly recovered from the steep losses of October. The differences in recovery generally correspond to the position of the bonds in the capital structure, or to credit quality.
After this difficult year, we expect more investors will consider bonds as part of their portfolio and a volatility moderator.
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Sunday, December 28, 2008
ETF Bond Yields Confirm Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Richard_Shaw
The table below presents the SEC 30-day yield and the portfolio yield-to-maturity reported for most of the Barclay's iShares bond ETFs.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Investment Tip / Interest-Rates / Investing 2009
By: Richard_Shaw
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are more attractively priced than ordinary Treasuries of the same maturity.
About Ordinary Treasuries
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Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Credit Crisis Watch: Credit Market Freeze Continues to Thaw / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Are the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections having the desired effect of unclogging credit markets and restoring confidence in the world's financial system? This is precisely what the “Credit Crisis Watch” is all about – a regular review of a number of measures in order to ascertain to what extent the thawing of credit markets is under way.
Updating the report at this time is also to gauge the credit markets' reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) announcement of a week ago about a Fed funds rate cut and specific actions that would move the Fed further towards a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy. (Also see my “ Words from the Wise ” review.)
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Monday, December 22, 2008
Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 2) / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Mike_Shedlock
This post is a continuation of Dangerous Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 1) . If you have not yet done so, please read part 1. The symptoms of the FIV disease are complex. Part 1 addresses the symptoms and part 2 below continues with more symptoms and a discussion about preventative measures and cures.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bond Steamroller Keeps Chugging Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for a 7th consecutive weeks as the Long Bond future rallied an unprecedented 29 points since the end of October. If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it must be just another blow-off top. It is really no big deal, blow-offs have been a dime a dozen this year, so there is no reason to get too excited. I apologize for plagiarizing my own work from last week, but I just could not think of presenting it in a more appropriate manner. Heading into the year end, the signs of extreme distress remain evident in the bond market. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Bank of England's Failure at Handling of the Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Having watched and written about the increasing failure of the Bank of England to act throughout the crisis that broke way back in September 2007 as the run on Northern Rock Bank began, having always acted too little too late that was most recently evident during the summer of 2008 when the BoE was paralysed by the fear of inflation into a state of inaction on interest rates, the MPC members basically sat twiddling their thumbs whilst the economy burned. It took until a frustrated Gordon Brown effectively took away control of Monetary policy from the BoE on the eve of financial armageddon on 8th of October when he announced the first 0.5% cut in interest rates at the Prime Ministers question time despatch box. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Panorama: The Year Britain's Credit Bubble Burst / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008
By: BBC
Happy Christmas? For many people the holiday season is more likely to be a fearful one as they worry about their finances and job security after a year of global economic turbulence.
The last 12 months have seen house prices tumble and repossessions rise, with banks needing billion-pound bailouts. Such has been the speed of the economic crisis that the notion of the credit crunch has been replaced by the very real prospect of a recession.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Global Recession, Crashing Interest Rates Igniting Government Bond Bubbles / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Duke University: CFO Survey – historic recession to last another year “Chief financial officers in the United States and around the world are more pessimistic than at any time in the history of the Duke University/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. The majority of chief financial officers in the US and Europe say their firms will slash spending and employment in 2009, and their firms will post losses. The recession will last another year, according to nearly two-thirds of CFOs.
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Saturday, December 20, 2008
Fed Targeting Long-term Interest Rates to Force Mortgage Rates Lower / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
- I Meant to Do That
- The Lights of Myanmar
- Some Good News for Borrowers
- Madoff May Give Us a Sell-Off
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We may not be in for a two-decades-long Japanese malaise, but we will experience a whole new set of circumstances. In what will hopefully be a shorter holiday version of the e-letter, I will tackle these questions and more.
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Friday, December 19, 2008
The Greatest Wealth Transfer in the History of Mankind Starts Now! / Interest-Rates / Economic Depression
By: Brent_Harmes
Right now, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the banking system seem to be gearing up for an event the likes of which has never been seen. I believe the crisis that will unfold over the next few years will add up to the biggest economic event in history. The scale of what is happening will dwarf all other economic events combined. The Tulip mania of 1637, John Law's "Mississippi Scheme" of 1720, and the dot-com / tech bubble of 1999 will pale by comparison. Even the hyperinflation in Weimar Germany in 1923 and the Great Depression will seem like a walk in the park compared to what is coming. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Bond Investors Turn Bullish on U.S. Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Here is a headline I am laughing at: Bond Investors Turn Most Bullish on Treasuries Since February
Treasuries will appreciate over the next six months as the U.S. economy reels from its worst recession in a quarter-century, a monthly survey of Bloomberg users showed.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2008
U.S. Fed Opts to Inflate Treasury Bond Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Dorsch
Beware - “Quantitative Easing” is Hallucinogenic - American bankers are so fearful of a replay of the 1930's Great Depression, they've finally reached the point of "No-return," – lending $30-billion to Uncle Sam at a rock-bottom interest rate of zero-percent. Demand was so great at the last auction, the Treasury could have sold four-times as many T-bills. If short-term T-bill rates go negative, frightened bankers would effectively be paying the US Treasury for the privilege of lending money to it! But remember, "The Fed can guarantee cash benefits as far out, and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power," former Fed chief, "Easy" Al Greenspan told Congress on Feb 15, 2005.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
U.S. Treasury Bonds Soar Following Zero Interest Rates Policy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The extraordinary near-vertical advance in the Lehman 20 Year T-bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues, as yield on both the 10 and 30 year Treasuries plummets. Let's notice that for the first time in what I consider to be the "blow-off" stage (since 12./12), the TLTs have gapped up, which technically suggests strongly that the price structure has entered the final phase of the incredible "parabolic" move. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Fed Policy to Drive U.S. Dollar Lower to Prevent Deflation / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Axel_Merk
Faced with the threat of deflation, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be trying to drive the dollar lower to spur inflation. As policy makers don't want home prices to deteriorate further, an alternative is to inflate the prices of all other goods and services: as a result, the relative prices of homes would be less expensive. Weakening the dollar is an effective policy tool to drive up inflation as the cost of import goes up. Just be careful: the Fed may be getting more than it is bargaining for. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Fed Fights Deflation with Zero Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The US Federal Reserve yesterday pulled out all the stops in a frantic effort to save the US economy from collapse and stem the deflationary forces. The Fed funds rate was slashed from 1% to a target range between 0 and 0.25% – the lowest the central bank's key rate has been since records began in 1954. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Quantitative Interest Rate Easing American Style: Free Money / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Treasury rally continued in spectacular fashion in conjunction with the ZIRP Arrival: Fed Targets Interest Rates 0 to 1/4 Percent . From the FOMC Press Release . The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level.
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