Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 12, 2016
Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.”
But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.
Friday, September 09, 2016
Money and The Rats of NIHM / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft
and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice you may know that your society is doomed.”– Ayn Rand
Thursday, September 08, 2016
Failure of Inflation Targeting?! / Economics / Inflation
By: Axel_Merk
It ain't working. Eight years after the outbreak of the financial crisis, central bank chiefs suggest they have saved the world, but have they? We argue central banks have become part of the problem, not the solution. At its core, their indoctrinated focus on inflation may well do more harm than good, with potentially perilous implications for investors.
Thursday, September 08, 2016
Hyperinflation Versus Deflationary Collapse / Economics / Economic Collapse
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
If the thunder don’t get you, then the lightning will… The Grateful Dead, The Wheel(lyrics)
In the world of phenomena, everything has a beginning and an end; and today, the bankers’ endgame is moving closer to its inevitable resolution and demise. The question is no longer if, it is when and how.
The relationship between paper money and gold is causal in central banking’s collapse. When paper money was backed by gold, it (1) gave the bankers’ paper money its value and (2) constrained the ability of governments to print limitless amounts of money, as governments needed money backed by gold to balance trade deficits, i.e. value for value.
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Wednesday, September 07, 2016
BrExit UK Economic Collapse Evaporates, GDP Forecasts for 2016 and 2017 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its now two months on from when the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, however subsequently a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests had propagandised both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, a message literally warning of economic collapse as the following warnings of doom from David Cameron, George Osborne and Mark Carney illustrate and that which many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality starting to dawn of a UK economy that is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several economic measures into and during the month of August.
Tuesday, September 06, 2016
GDP is more of a fuzzy reflection of the Economy / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
GDP is a fairly recent statistic. Though it is malleable in its construction, it can be contentious in its application. Yet the media tend to release GDP numbers as if they are an accurate reflection of the general economy.
GDP is one economic model among several that could serve the purpose. But its use can lead to policies that reflect the thinking of a particular school of economic, monetary, and fiscal policy.
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Monday, September 05, 2016
UK Economy Post BrExit Boom, Bank of England, Treasury Economists, Journalists ALL WRONG! / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Two months on from the BrExit economic collapse apocalypse prophecies a stream of economic data on the UK economy continues to paint a picture that is a the exact extreme opposite to that which the establishment and their vested interests painted both before and immediately after the EU referendum vote, one of recession or even economic collapse that many still blindly cling onto to this very day despite reality stating that the UK economy is literally soaring into the stratosphere by recording unprecedented gains across several measures for the month of August.
Sunday, September 04, 2016
The Anti-Cinderella Man (Part One) - The Greater Depression / Economics / Great Depression II
By: James_Quinn
There are several movies I will watch every time they are aired on one of my generally useless 600 cable channels. They all have the same thing in common – a compelling character portrayal which keeps you riveted and mesmerized by how the protagonist deals with adversity and circumstances beyond their control. The movies I can’t resist include: The Godfather I & II, The Green Mile, Shawshank Redemption, Apocalypse Now, and Patton. Another captivating movie, which didn’t do well at the box office, is Cinderella Man. The portrayal of Depression era heavyweight boxing champion James J. Braddock by Russell Crowe is inspirational, with a rousing and improbable victory by the champion of the common man. While watching this great movie a few weeks ago I found myself equating the themes to the current presidential campaign.
Saturday, September 03, 2016
John Maynard Keynes’ “General Theory” Eighty Years Later / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Antonius_Aquinas
To the economic and political detriment of the Western world and those economies beyond which have adopted its precepts, 2016 marks the eightieth anniversary of the publication of one of, if not, the most influential economics books ever penned, John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Sadly, even to this day, despite its thorough refutation by lights such as Henry Hazlitt and other eminent scholars, The General Theory, which spawned “Keynesianism” and its later variants, remains supreme in academics, financial markets, and public policy.
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Friday, September 02, 2016
Psychological Manipulation & Economic Deception are now the Order of the day / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Sol_Palha
A man has free choice to the extent that he is rational. St. Thomas AquinasIt is possible if one takes the right actions to make money and remain relatively unscathed in such an environment. One cannot say the same for the masses because they are walking with their eyes wide shut. In other words, they do not see what’s happening; their heads are stuck in the sand. They are oblivious to what’s going around, and if you try to warn them, they are apt to strangle you. This situation is strikingly similar to “Plato’s allegory of the cave.”
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Thursday, September 01, 2016
“The Fly-in-the-Ointment” -> Stagnant Wages & Hidden Inflation / Economics / Wages
By: John_Mauldin
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WHY WAGES HAVE STAGNATED
“The statistics we rely on are becoming more and more suspicious.”
Statistics are now used for perception management rather than reflecting the real economy. Of all these statistics we’re relying on to reflect reality, some of them are really suspect. We’re trying to stick with the ones that are valid. GDP is flawed but still our bellwethers, and we’re still relying on FRED database.
Thursday, September 01, 2016
BrExit Economic Collapse Evaporates into Boom as PMI Soars / Economics / BrExit
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest news out for the UK economy is that the post BrExit economic collapse as illustrated by the Purchasing Managers Index that during July fell sharply to 48.3 (a reading below 50 implies economic contraction) which most academic economists that populate the mainstream press concluded heralded the start of a severe imminent economic downtrend, an recession early warning.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
The Influx of Female Professionals is Changing Consumer Spending / Economics / Demographics
By: Rodney_Johnson
I recently dropped off my youngest at college for her freshman year. She’s finally free of the prison rules of high school, and can explore life as a young adult. I’ve given her a few pointers. OK, maybe a few thousand tips on what to do and what to avoid over the next four years.I think I’m qualified. Her two older siblings are navigating college life just fine, with no police records and their online dignity still intact. I’m sure our parental guidance had a lot to do with this… or at least a little something.
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Tuesday, August 30, 2016
7 Things to Remember When Inflation Returns / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
The problem for much of the global economy since the Financial Crisis of 2008 has been a lack of inflation. The banking system seized up, and loans were hard to come by for a couple of years. This shock hurt economic growth and knocked inflation down to near zero. Many major economies were hit with outright deflation.
In response, global central banks—including the US Federal Reserve—began a massive series of stimulus programs. The goal was to help their national economies get back on track. But, the results have been mixed. The US economy is one of the few to show signs of life over the last year or so.
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Monday, August 29, 2016
Politics Is Getting in the Way of China’s Critical Economic Reforms / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
BY JACOB SHAPIRO : Two important reports were recently published on the current state of the Chinese economy. The first was the IMF’s annual review. It said the outlook for China’s near-term growth had improved. But, it pointed out that corporate debt is rising. Also, capital outflows for 2016 will equal 2015’s at $1 trillion.
The second report was China’s monthly release of investment data. This showed that fixed asset investment growth in China slowed to 8.1% in July. According to Caixin, that’s the slowest year-to-date fixed asset investment growth in 16 years.
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Saturday, August 27, 2016
Unraveling the Secular Economic Stagnation Story / Economics / US Economy
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Secular stagnation is said to be present when economic growth is negligible or nonexistent over a considerable span of time. Today, secular stagnation has become a popular mantra of the chattering classes, particularly in the United States. The idea is not new, however.Alvin Hansen, an early and prominent Keynesian economist at Harvard University, popularized the notion of secular stagnation in the 1930s. In his presidential address to the American Economic Association in 1938, he asserted that the U.S. was a mature economy that was stuck in a rut. Hansen reasoned that technological innovations had come to an end; that the great American frontier (read: natural resources) was closed; and that population growth was stagnating. So, according to Hansen, investment opportunities would be scarce, and there would be nothing ahead except secular economic stagnation. The only way out was more government spending. It would be used to boost investment via public works projects. For Hansen and the Keynesians of that era, stagnation was a symptom of market failure, and the antidote was government largesse.
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Thursday, August 25, 2016
Protectionism in 21st Century Is More Dangerous Than Most People Think / Economics / Protectionism
By: John_Mauldin
A monster debate has been going on in economic circles on the reasons for Brexit/Trump/Sanders and the developed world’s rejection of the status quo.
There are many explanations, but it all goes back to my thesis that the benefits of globalization have been unevenly handed out. Those who have been on the short end of the distribution curve are pushing back.
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Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Proof Positive the Economic Recovery Is a Myth / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Graham_Summers
For years, I’ve been warning that all claims of economic “recovery” in the US are complete fiction.
We now have definitive proof in the form of tax receipts.
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Monday, August 22, 2016
Proof US Economic Recovery Has Ended / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Michael_Pento
The primary data point that the perennial bulls on Wall Street claim as evidence for an improving economy is the monthly jobs number. The Non-farm Payroll Report claimed that 255,000 jobs were added in July on a seasonally adjusted bases. This number was well above the 12-month average of 190,000. And according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), at total of 1.66 million additional people have been employed thus far in fiscal 2016, making this the one bright spot in the economy.
Sunday, August 21, 2016
US Government Spending - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered – Part III / Economics / Government Spending
By: Andy_Sutton
The third and final (for now) portion of this series might be a tad anticlimactic. If so, we apologize. Most people know America is in debt beyond comprehension. A small subset of people understand that the numbers published by the government are missing a whole bunch of important items and use accounting methods that would land most business people in prison. An even smaller subset understands the idea of generational accounting.