Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Demographics Are the Biggest Drag on the US Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
BY SAMUEL RINES: The US economy has slowed, and the reasons for the sluggish growth cause heated arguments among market participants and economists alike. There are two outspoken camps: “the good ole days are coming back” and “this is normal.” The camps have little in common, except yelling at one another.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Limits of Empirical Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Two separate economic developments over the last 100 years have caused macroeconomics to regress instead of progress. The first is the Keynesian, or more accurately Malthusian, notion of aggregate demand. The second is Friedman’s positive empiricism emphasising the importance of empirical verification of economic theory.
According to positive empiricism, adherence to economic facts is the only way to validate economic theories.
Monday, October 17, 2016
Bank of England Blames Brexit for Sterling Drop Inflation, Masks QE Money Printing Cause / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's master monetary magician Mark Carney appeared on stage this week presenting his latest magic trick one of blaming the 16% drop in sterling on Brexit on all those who voted for it, and then warning of the inevitable future inflation consequences as the price of imports look to soar. After all the establishment elite remain determined to subvert the will of the British people be they bankers or 80% of the members of the establishment MP's that illustrates that democracy is to to all intents and purposes an illusion.
Sunday, October 16, 2016
End of Economic Growth Sparks Wide Discontent / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Former British diplomat and MI6 ‘ranking figure’ Alastair Crooke quotes my September 26 article “Why There is Trump” so extensively in this article for Consortium News that I thought I might as well post the whole thing here at the Automatic Earth too. The other sources he also quotes -John Gray, Stephen Hadley among them- help to put my points in a solid perspective, which is nice to see. I can only hope that this will open more people’s eyes to the fact that in the end of growth and centralization, we are witnessing the “most important global development in decades.”
Friday, October 14, 2016
The Next Recession Will Blow Out the Budget / Economics / Recession 2018
By: John_Mauldin
The odds that the next US President will face a recession during his or her first four years in office are quite high. Maybe not in the first year, but it’s highly unlikely he or she will get more than two to three years without one.
Given this fiscal reality and the dwindling number of arrows left in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy quiver, the administration will have a hard time dealing with the fallout from a recession.
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Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Samsung's Galaxy Battery Just The Tip Of The Iceberg / Economics / Global Economy
By: Gordon_T_Long
Are Central Bankers Crippling The Global Supply Chain?
Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.
Though the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 battery problem is presently receiving a tremendous amount of media and public attention, what few appreciate is that it is only the tip of the iceberg of cracks in the global supply chained as a result of unintended consequences of central bank monetary policies. In this 35 minute video Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith begin 'pealing the onion' on a deteriorating global supply chain and what the root cause is.
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Tuesday, October 11, 2016
The World Is Turning Dangerously Insular / Economics / Global Economy
By: John_Mauldin
A toxic mix of short-sighted policy and isolationist politics is endangering the global economy.
In his recent talk at the Strategic Investment Conference 2016, David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff argues that there are growing threats looming over the global economy.
He believes that current macroeconomic and political trends could lead to serious problems in China, and especially Europe, in the not too distant future.
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Friday, October 07, 2016
The Next Recession Looms Large / Economics / Recession 2016
By: Peter_Schiff
Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.
Wednesday, October 05, 2016
The Hyperinflationary Death Watch / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense – perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire – that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. – Alan Greenspan
Every hyperinflation is unique. No one wants the chaos it will bring. We are not rooting for it. Monetary crisis is always part and parcel or a extension of the inevitable cycles of history.
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Thursday, September 29, 2016
BEA Revises Q2 2016 US GDP Growth Upward to 1.42% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their third and final estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the growth rate was +1.42%, up +0.33% from their previous estimate and up +0.59% from the prior quarter. Most of the improvement in the headline number came from a +0.24% upward revision in commercial fixed investment. None of the other revisions were statistically significant.
Saturday, September 24, 2016
US Economy GDP Growth Estimates in Free-Fall: FRBNY Nowcast 2.26% Q3, 1.22% Q4 / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
GDP estimates for third and fourth quarter are now in a free-fall.
Last Friday the FRBNY Nowcast was in a blackout period because of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Today we see estimates tor the last two weeks. Let's also take a look at my guess of the estimates vs. how the estimates came in.
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Friday, September 23, 2016
Hedonics, Food, and Pluralistic Ignorance / Economics / Inflation
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Inflation is alive and well – despite what we hear from the mainstream. Due to pluralistic ignorance, it persists much longer than anyone would have ever predicted.
From Wikipedia:
Pluralistic ignorance
“In social psychology, pluralistic ignorance is a situation in which a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but incorrectly assume that most others accept it, and therefore go along with it.[1] This is also described as ‘no one believes, but everyone thinks that everyone believes’.”
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Thursday, September 22, 2016
Japan’s Economy Impending Monetary Exhaustion / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Japan’s monetary gamble and Abenomics are approaching the end of the road. Neither Brussels nor Washington is immune to the adverse consequences of Tokyo's monetary exhaustion, says Dan Steinbock. Recently, Japan’s second quarter GDP growth was revised up to 0.7 percent, after four consecutive quarters of stagnation. But don’t set your hopes too high.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
U.S. Economy - We Can’t Party Like it’s 1999 / Economics / US Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
I came of age in the early ’80s, when Prince was king of the airwaves (pun intended). His smash hit “1999” had an end-of-days feel to it, asking everyone to “party like it’s 1999.”As time went on and the end of the century loomed, the world grew nervous about what would happen when we reached the year 2000, or Y2K. In the end, none of the doomsday predictions came true. The computers still worked, air traffic control still functioned, hospitals and banks carried on.
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Tuesday, September 20, 2016
BrExit UK Inflation CPI, RPI Forecast 2016, 2017 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Going into the EU referendum the vested interest academic economists from the Bank of England down were repeatedly issuing dire warnings of a plunge in sterling that would send inflation soaring that would trigger a series of interest rate hikes all whilst the economy collapsed. The prices in the shops as measured by official UK CPI Inflation was hugging near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016 data, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation was already above 1% at 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So official UK price Inflation was already well above 1% and trending towards 2% before BrExit.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Fascist Business Model: Reich Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Fascist Business Model incorporates all the worse elements of Keynesian economics, a broken fallacious school of thought. The model also integrates a vast system of economic heresy, put forth as public address dogma. All their messages are wrong. They are instead aligned with support of the power structure where big banks conduct self-dealing and print money for themselves.
Monday, September 19, 2016
China Is Digging Itself into a Deeper Hole / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Chinese “depreciation” and all its ensuing hysteria occurred just about a year ago. It has also been a about a year since I co-wrote a book on China with Worth Wray titled A Great Leap Forward?
The title was meant to be ironic. The original Great Leap Forward was imposed by Mao in the 1960s. It was one of the most economically disastrous times in Chinese history. Food production increased, yet 30 million people starved. China underwent a true financial and economic crisis due to the insanity of central control of markets.
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Sunday, September 18, 2016
American Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Andy_Sutton
Over the years, we have written multiple times about the system of Keynesian economics, its dysfunction, and the fact that it is a pure lie. This has all been well-documented from studies, observations, right down to remarks made by Keynes himself regarding the long-term viability of his new faux economics.
However, from Keynesian economics, there has morphed another type of economics. A more ignorant and destructive type of scarce resource allocation – which is what economics really is after all – and this type is no respecter of persons, intellect, position, or influence. We could easily call it the economics of entitlement, but that would be misleading because when most think of entitlements, they think about Social Security, Medicare, and other government programs. No, that’s not where the sense of American (and global) entitlement ends. It ends with the average working stiff who is paying 20% on a $40,000 / 7 -year truck loan with a balloon payment because his buddies told him he wasn’t cool if he didn’t have such a truck. There are zillions of other such examples of financial stupidity, however, nobody is bothering to tell these folks that they’re committing financial suicide. The banks certainly aren’t going to tell them. The government? Talk about the kettle and the pot. Or maybe there is too much legal pot. We certainly can’t legislate common sense, but we sure try to legislate away the consequences of foolish behavior.
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Monday, September 12, 2016
Why the Greater Recession Will be Dollar Bearish / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Michael_Pento
The Great Recession of 2008 provided markets with an interesting irony: As the US economy was collapsing under the weight of crumbling home prices, investors curiously flocked to the US dollar under the guise of “The Safety Trade.”
But the truth is that investors weren’t running into the dollar for safety, what they were actually doing was unwinding a carry trade. In a carry trade an investor borrows a depreciating currency that offers a relatively low interest rate and uses those funds to purchase an appreciating currency that offers the potential for higher returns on its sovereign debt and stock market. The trade’s objective is to capture the difference between rates, while also benefitting from the currency that is rising in value against the borrowed (shorted) funds.
Friday, September 09, 2016
Money and The Rats of NIHM / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“When you see that trading is done, not by consent, but by compulsion; when you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see money flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get richer by graft
and pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you; when you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice you may know that your society is doomed.”– Ayn Rand