Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
UK Retail Sales Crash, No Vadera Green Shoots Visible / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Despite the hype of deep discounting, the retail sales figures released today by major high street retailers shows sales slumping by between 7.5% and 10% which clearly demonstrates that the long experienced shoppers to a large degree did not get caught up with sales frenzy of previous years and refused to fall for the sales gimmicks where actual real discounting was few and far between. This coupled with the economy falling of the edge of a cliff despite green shoots ramblings by
Labour's Shriti Vadera,
sets a bleak scene for retailers for the whole of 2009 as my earlier analysis pointed out that the 30% crash in sterling will lead to higher restocking costs, whilst at the same time consumers increasingly expect discounting and therefore put off purchasing for the closing down sales.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Economic Depression is Inevitable / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Brian_Bloom
The simple analysis below demonstrates that – based on current behaviour of the Central Banks and monetary authorities – Economic Depression is inevitable.
In the article which can be accessed via the attached link, (http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2008Q4NP.pdf ) Hoisington states that “nominal GDP …. is equal to the stock of money multiplied by its turnover, or velocity.”
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Last Nail in the Coffin for the U.S. Economy / Economics / US Economy
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The government has just released one of the most shocking federal budget reports of all time.
Even if you overlook the gaping holes in their economic assumptions, it's obvious the federal deficit is going to deliver a punch below the belt of the economy.
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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Obama Deficit Spending the Anti-Reagan / Volcker Revolution / Economics / US Debt
By: Michael_Pento
With over 2.5 million jobs lost in 2008 and G.D.P. estimates for Q4 projected to fall at a minus 6% annual rate, all hopes are now pinned on an Obama stimulus program that could exceed $1 trillion. Are investors hopes well-grounded in believing a government going further into debt can bring about a sustained economic recovery? I think not, and here's why: Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Stimulating The U.S. Economy All the Way to Rock Bottom / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
With attention turning to the next big economic stimulus package, questions are still swirling about our economic troubles. How did we get here? How do we get out? As usual, Washington has all the wrong answers. According to many politicians, we got here by not spending enough, not consuming enough, and not regulating enough. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Credit Crisis Bailouts Debt Fueled Money Printing Flood / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: How much is $1.186 trillion — or $1,186,000,000,000, written out the long way?
• It's more than the inflation-adjusted cost of the Vietnam ($698 billion) and Korean Wars ($454 billion).
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Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Bernanke Banking System, Economy In Much Worse Shape Than Previously Admitted / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
At the Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics, London, England, Bernanke Urges ‘Strong Measures' to Stabilize Banks
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus won't be enough to spur an economic recovery and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks' tainted assets to revive growth.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
The Availability of Money / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Econgineers
How does it matter if money is cheap nowadays, if nobody has access to it? Money is simply not available.
Banks have stopped lending to individuals and corporations.
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Tuesday, January 13, 2009
U.S. Consumer Booms Inevitable Bust / Economics / US Economy
By: Oxbury_Research
A Nation Named Desire - Classic film buffs will be familiar with the 1951 film – A Streetcar Named Desire – which starred Marlon Brando and Vivian Leigh. My favorite scene in the film involves Blanche DuBois (Vivian Leigh) and Stanley Kowalski (Marlon Brando).
Blanche DuBois is a fallen woman – her family fortune and estate are gone. In an absolutely classic line, Blanche says to Stanley Kowalski - “I have always depended on the kindness of strangers”.
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Monday, January 12, 2009
Global Recession 2009, Investors What to Do Now / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
Economically, 2009 has been handed some horrible numbers: It inherited the steepest contraction in manufacturing activity since 1980.
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) factory index tumbled from 36.2 in November to just 32.4 in December, the lowest level since June of 1980. The all-time low for this data series, which began in 1948, was 29.4 in May 1980.
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Monday, January 12, 2009
Emerging Giants Russia, China, Brazil and India Looming Collapse 2009 / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
I hope you've had a great start to your New Year! At the same time, however, I trust you are not counting on the latest holiday rally in the stock market — or the most recent incarnation of the Obama rescue package — to transform 2009 into a positive year for the economy.
The reasons: In addition to the massive wealth destruction I told you about two weeks ago and the continuing debt collapse I've been warning you about for many months now, the overseas engines of global growth are also collapsing.
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Monday, January 12, 2009
Growth of Global Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply
By: Mike_Hewitt
This essay analyzes the growth of the money supply for 73 selected currencies from 90 countries. Nineteen of these countries belong to two monetary unions - the European Union and the East Caribbean Union. 1 Together, these countries make up 96.7% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 84.1% of the world's population . 2 Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 12, 2009
Credit Crisis Solutions That Should Scare The Hell Out Of You / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
Things are looking pretty bleak. There is bad news in housing, the stock market, commercial real estate, jobs, and wages . Unfortunately, no matter how bad things are, someone always comes along to propose a "solution" that is guaranteed to make the situation much worse. Please consider the following ideas. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Antole Kaletsky's Economic Crisis Solution to Tax the Savers into Spending / Economics / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mick_Phoenix
Dangerous Times - Be careful what you read when Antole Kaletsky is writing. Welcome to the Weekly Report. I have been reading the mainstream media of late to get a feel for the level of understanding writers (and therefore the vast majority of their readers) have for the new economic situation that faces the global economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 11, 2009
The Cycle of Economic Deflation During 2009 / Economics / Deflation
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Bloomberg: Nouriel Roubini - worst is still ahead of US “The global financial system in 2008 experienced its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Major financial institutions went bust. Others were bought up on the cheap or survived only after major bailouts. Global stock markets fell by more than 50% from their 2007 peaks. Interest-rate spreads spiked. A severe liquidity and credit crunch appeared. Many emerging-market economies on the verge of a crisis had to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund.
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Sunday, January 11, 2009
Obama Ups U.S. Job Creation Program to 4 Million / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
While increasing his jobs creation forecast to 4 million jobs, Obama Calls for Sacrifice, Scaling Back Campaign Promises . President-elect Barack Obama said turning around the U.S. economy will require cutting back on some campaign promises and personal sacrifice from Americans.
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Saturday, January 10, 2009
Economic Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and Recession / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and the Stimulus Effect
- Muddle Through on Hold
- Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers
- Central Bankers of the World, Unite!
- Predictions 2009
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various markets. We will look at deflation, deleveraging, the fallout from the stimulus plans (note plural), housing, consumer spending, unemployment, and a lot more. There is a lot to cover. But first two quick announcements.
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Saturday, January 10, 2009
Why the Economic Stimulus Packages are Doomed to Fail / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Oxbury_Research
The Sahara Desert used to have fish. Many people do not know this, but over the last 120,000 years or so, there were no less than three distinct time periods when what is now a desolate expanse of sand was instead covered with rivers, lakes, and grasslands. In fact, millions of years ago, evidence points to the area being a prehistoric ocean. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
U.S. Unemployment Soars to 7.2%; Jobs Contract 12th Straight Month / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Before taking a look at the monthly jobs data, let's take a look at Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims from The US Department of Labor.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 09, 2009
Obama’s Inflationary Bond Market Busting Stimulus Plan / Economics / Credit Crisis Bailouts
By: Money_Morning
When is There “Too Much” Stimulus?
Martin Hutchinson writes: The Congressional Budget Office's announcement Wednesday that 2009's budget deficit was going to be $1.19 billion - before a nickel of President-elect Barack Obama's stimulus plan has been included - raises a crucial question for the U.S. economy: Is there too much stimulus, and what effect would too much stimulus have?
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