Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
US is Winning Trade War with China...for Now / Economics / China US Conflict
By: Richard_Mills
The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.
Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.
Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.
This article is concerned with the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping statistics - such as cargo volumes through West Coast ports - that we can use to determine who, at this stage, China or the US, is winning the trade war.
The overall conclusion we, at Ahead of the Herd, came up with, is that the United States is winning, in terms of raw economic data, but at a cost to both economies of roughly $165 billion in two-way trade. The losers also include US consumers who are paying more for imported goods, and companies in both countries that can’t afford 25% tariffs for an extended period of time.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
What Will Trump’s Immigration Fight Cost You? / Economics / Immigration
By: Rodney_Johnson
Just like investors tend to buy high and sell low, politicians tend to react to most major issues (ahem… immigration) by doing the wrong thing at the right time.It’s no secret that almost all developed countries, and China in the emerging world, are slowing in workforce and demographic growth – many outright declining. Rodney talked about this just last Thursday. Five of the six smaller ones (which include Australia and New Zealand) that aren’t have one thing in common: strong and high-quality immigration.
You would think, with clearly predictable further slowing in demographic trends, that the developed countries would be competing for the best global immigrants. But most are restricting or fighting against it just as we need them the most. The U.S. fought against immigration going into the Great Depression. It’s doing it again now…
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Sunday, May 26, 2019
The Three M's of Hyperinflation : Milosevic, Mugabe, And Maduro / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
What do Slobodan Milosevic, Robert Mugabe, and Nicolás Maduro have in common? Other than being leaders who kept the Communist Manifesto at their bedside, all three ushered in devastating hyperinflations.
Hyperinflations are rare. They have only occurred when the supply of money has been governed by discretionary paper money standards. No hyperinflation has ever been recorded when money has been commodity-based or when paper money has been convertible into a commodity.
The first hyperinflation occurred during the French Revolution (1789-96) when the mandat collapsed and the monthly inflation rate peaked at 143% in December of 1795. More than a century elapsed before another episode of hyperinflation occurred. Not coincidentally, this period of currency tranquility occurred during the heyday of the gold standard. With the emergence and adoption of fiat currencies, the 20th century ushered in currency instability and inflation. Indeed, since 1900 there have been 57 episodes of hyperinflation. And, five of those episodes can be claimed by Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. All are featured in the Hanke-Krus World Hyperinflation Table below, which first appeared in The Routledge Handbook of Major Events in Economic History (2013).
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Saturday, May 25, 2019
Employment - The Good and the Bad of Job Automation / Economics / Employment
By: Patrick_Watson
People are worried robots will take their jobs. That’s a legitimate fear sometimes, but it’s not new. It is just another step in a process that started long ago.
The bigger question is whether job automation is good.
If we want the economy to grow, the math is pretty easy. It’s a two-factor equation:
- The number of available workers, multiplied by
- The value of goods and services the average worker produces.
Increase one or both of those and presto, GDP will rise. Automation helps raise the second one. But then it gets complicated.
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Thursday, May 23, 2019
Capitalism Works, Ravenous Capitalism Doesn’t / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Raymond_Matison
For more than a century, capitalism has proven to be successful in expanding the efficient manufacture of goods and agricultural products, increasing jobs and incomes, promoting technological innovation, decreasing poverty and improving the general welfare of humans globally. By contrast, socialism and communism with its centrally planned economy and collectivism historically have produced misery, war, need and poverty through oppressive totalitarian governments.
Super hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, the president of Bridgewater Associates, the very successful and largest hedge fund in America recently released a thoughtful and timely report stating that “capitalism is broken” - pointing to, among other things, the gross income disparity between high and low earners. Ray Dalio’s judgment of broken capitalism relates to his observation that the vast majority of wages going to the top 5% wage earners does not benefit the overall economy, destabilizes society and is destructive to capitalism. The fact that a true-blue capitalist wrote the article should alert industrialists, globalists, bankers and all capitalists that perhaps “capitalism with American characteristics” has veered off its previously successful course. Capitalism does work; but ravenous capitalism is indeed self-destructive. The bounty of capitalism must be shared not only with its owners or investors, but also with its other “significant partners” – the nation’s workers.
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Saturday, May 18, 2019
US Economy to Die a Traditional Death… Inflation Is Going to Move Higher / Economics / US Economy
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Later in today’s program we’ll hear from Axel Merk of Merk Investments. Axel breaks down the trade war with China and gives us some keen insights on the likely strategy being employed by President Donald Trump there, and also tells us why he sees inflationary pressures returning in the economy and the affects it will have on gold prices. Don’t miss another wonderful interview with the highly respected Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
As markets continue to gyrate on global trade and tariff threats, precious metals are struggling to capture investor interest.
Lately, the big push in alternative assets has been in Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency has doubled in price over the past two months, though it remains well below its old high.
Gold was the sole metal to show strength amidst the recent selloff in stocks. However, its momentum petered out mid week and turned lower on Thursday. As of this Friday recording, gold prices are down 0.8% for the week to trade at $1,277 an ounce.
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Friday, May 17, 2019
This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red / Economics / Recession 2019
By: Patrick_Watson
The yield curve isn’t the only sign recession is coming. Rising corporate misconduct says the same.
Business scandals seem to peak at the end of every growth cycle. I think that’s because CEOs are human, and humans get overconfident when everything is going well.
- In the late 1980s, we had the savings & loan crisis, followed by recession in 1990–91.
- The early 2000s brought both a deep recession and scandals at Enron, Tyco, WorldCom, and others.
- The Great Recession exposed Bernie Madoff’s fraud scheme. A couple of years earlier, commodity broker Refco went bankrupt after its CEO had concealed millions in bad debts.
Allegations of negligence and/or misconduct at public companies now seem to be growing again…
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Thursday, May 16, 2019
It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs / Economics / Employment
By: John_Mauldin
You’ve likely heard of the term “income inequality.” It means wealthy people are making a larger share of our collective income.
In one sense, it’s nothing new. The people with the highest incomes have more of the total. Math guarantees it.
But the top’s share has largely grown in recent decades, as has the share of assets owned by the wealthiest.
In fact, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates says that income inequality is now at the same level it was in the Great Depression.
Let’s review some charts from my friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest fascinating slide deck. It does a good job of explaining the drivers of this trend and its striking scale.
Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Breaking Down Today’s Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Rodney_Johnson
I recently had dinner with my extended family. Afterwards, my parents mentioned they were surprised at how expensive the meal had been. It was a nice restaurant, but nothing fancy. It worked out to roughly $50 apiece, before tip. As we left, we separately climbed into our newish cars, which all cost more than $40,000. My brother-in-law’s pickup tops out over $50,000.But don’t worry, the government tells us, there’s not much inflation.
We could have chosen a cheaper restaurant, and less expensive cars, which is exactly the point the government tries to make…
The government wants us accustomed to the chained consumer price index (CPI), where prices move higher and we’re chained to a falling standard of living.
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Sunday, May 12, 2019
US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update / Economics / US Economy
By: Troy_Bombardia
Instead of trying to predict when the economy will deteriorate in the distant future (which countless experts have tried and failed), we simply look for deterioration among the leading indicators. Instead of predicting the next 10 steps, we seek to predict the next 1-2 steps for the economy.
Here’s a brief summary of the leading economic indicators we track
Positive factors
- Labor market
- Corporate profits
- Financial conditions
- Loans
- High yield spreads
- Inflation-adjusted new orders
- Heavy Truck Sales
Negative factors
- Housing
- Yield curve
- Inflation-adjusted retail sales
- Earnings revisions
- Average weekly hours
Friday, May 10, 2019
Make America’s Economy Great Again / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
A lot of Americans find themselves in a quandary over Donald Trump. On the one hand they can’t stand the braggadocious billionaire for his lack of principles, business ethics, exorbitant wealth, his treatment of women, minorities, the list goes on and on. But they also have to admit, the economy is in better shape now than when Barack Obama was installed in the White House.
Can Trump justifiably take credit for the economic expansion of the last two and a half years? Why is the US economy growing? In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the question, “Why is the American economy great again?”
The sweet spot
The facts would appear to support that notion - the evidence shows that the economy has done extremely well since Trump was inaugurated as president in January, 2017.
In the first quarter, the US economy barreled along at 3.2%. A year ago it was at 4.2%. That’s not the highest growth the American economy has seen historically, but it’s pretty good. Taking a look at the chart below by Trading Economics, we can see that economic growth peaked in 2014, at close to 6%, when Obama was president, then dropped under 1% as the US election cycle began, in 2015. Since Trump has taken the helm, the trend line is clearly up.
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Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Record-Low Unemployment and Trump’s Message to China: Implications for Gold / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The US unemployment rate dropped in April to 3.6 percent, a level not seen since December 1969. So, everything must be great. With the exception of the renewed worries about the U.S.-China trade deal. On Sunday, President Trump surprised the markets again. What did he write exactly and how could his tweets affect the gold market?
US Economy Adds More Than 250,000 new jobs in April
America created 263,000 jobs last month, following a strong rise of 189,000 in March (after an downward revision). The number surprised again on a positive side, as the economists polled by the MarketWatch forecasted 213,000 created jobs.
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Saturday, May 04, 2019
Trump Trade War Is Widening, Not Ending / Economics / Protectionism
By: Patrick_Watson
Almost every day brings comforting news on the trade front. They’re talking! Someone went to Beijing! Someone else is optimistic!
The problem is, that’s just talk. The longer it goes on, the more tariffs damage the economy.
Let’s call tariffs what they are: import taxes. Maybe then the people who oppose all other taxes will stop thinking tariffs are somehow helpful.
There are better and less harmful ways to achieve our goals. But what you or I think doesn’t really matter.
President Trump likes tariffs, and current law lets him use a “national security” pretext to impose them.
So they will continue until he changes his mind, and there’s no sign he will.
Friday, May 03, 2019
Economic Dominoes Are Starting to Drop / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019
By: John_Mauldin
In the Great Recession, authorities faced enormous pressure to “do something.”Letting nature take its course may well have been the best strategy. But it couldn’t happen that way in our political system. They had to act.
In 2008–2009, we got things like TARP—the Troubled Asset Relief Program that used $431 billion of your money to buy loans that banks no longer wanted on their books.
What we now forget is that TARP helped banks that weren’t even banks before that point. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and numerous other broker-dealers and insurers hurriedly got bank charters specifically so they could be part of TARP.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Universal Basic Income Would Be a Social and Economic Disaster / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Jared_Dillian
I am never going to retire. Oh sure, I say that now, but what about when I am 80? No. I will never stop working.
Every morning, I get out of bed when the alarm goes off, take a shower, put on dress clothes (a suit, usually), and drive 35 minutes to work in an office that I rent in an office building.
I write newsletters. I can just as easily do that on the couch, in a pair of gym shorts, with a cup of coffee. Why spend over an hour a day commuting and dealing with all the brain damage of putting on a suit and going to work?
Friday, May 03, 2019
UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture / Economics / Unemployment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
Toward Japan’s Economic End-Game / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt – and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall.
Ever since Shinzo Abe started his second stint as Prime Minister, Japan has focused on positive economic signals, which has sparked futile hopes, including a bad sales tax proposition.
Japanese officials vow to stick to the planned tax hike in October (it has been delayed twice), barring a big economic shock. With the 2019 budget, Abe hopes to offset adverse impact of the sales tax by returning much of the extra revenue to consumers via $18 billion of offsetting measures, instead of faster debt-reduction.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
U.S. GDP Accelerates, while Socialists Triumph in Spain. Will Gold also Win? / Economics / US Economy
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The US economic growth in the Q1 2019 positively surprised. Indeed, on the upside. The doubting Thomasses were proven wrong. And The Socialist Party just won the snap elections in Spain. Is the left back in vogue in the Eurozone? But what does it all mean for the gold market?
US GDP Surprises on the Upside
On Friday, the government said that the US GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2019. What is important is that the number significantly surpassed the forecasts. For example, the economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 2.3 percent increase. The fears of the slowdown were overblown, as we have been warning for a long time.
Actually, the American economy accelerated in the first three months of 2019, as the economy grew at a 2.2 percent in Q4 2018, as one can see in the chart below.
Tuesday, April 30, 2019
This Indicator Signals the US Economy Is Slowing Down / Economics / US Economy
By: Patrick_Watson
It’s not a good sign for your health if your blood pressure drops too low. Similarly, the economy is probably sick when its circulatory system slows down. You don’t need a blood pressure gauge to know it either. Just count how many trucks you see on the highway.
Under normal conditions, busy highways and seaports mean a growing economy. Businesses are producing more stuff finding its way to consumers.
That was happening since we emerged from the Great Recession in 2009, albeit slower than in the past cycles.
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Tuesday, April 30, 2019
When Overvalued and Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation
By: Michael_Pento
To put into perspective how overvalued and dangerous the US market has become; I often cite the figure of total market cap to GDP—currently 145% of the economy. How high is 145% of GDP? It is a full 30% higher than it was before the start of the Great Recession. The twin sister to this metric is the Household Net Worth to GDP Ratio. Household net worth as a percent of GDP is calculated by dividing the current bubbles in home prices and equities by the underlying economy, which has been artificially inflated by interest rates that have been pushed into the sub-basement of history. This metric is now an incredible 535% of GDP, which is a record high and 19% higher than the NASDAQ bubble of 2000. To put that figure in perspective, the good folks at Daily Reckoning have calculated that the historical average is 384%.
These valuation measurements are much more accurate than Wall Street’s favorite PE ratio valuation barometer because they cannot be easily manipulated by corporate share buybacks that have been facilitated by record-low borrowing costs. And, as hinted at already, the GDP denominator of today is much more tenuous because it has become more than ever predicated on the record amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government.
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