Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Worried U.S. Econcomy? You’d Better Watch China / Economics / China Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: What happens in China will have an impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy. The linkage between economies worldwide has become more profound over the past decade. This is why, as an investor, you need to be fully aware of the situation across the Pacific.
The state of the Chinese economy continues to ramp up heated discussion specifically concerning the immediate need for further monetary stimulus to drive domestic consumption in China.
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Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Debt Black Hole Event Horizon, Economic Singularity, The Minsky Moment / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: John_Mauldin
"Concern about politics and the processes of international co-operation is warranted but the best one can hope for from politics in any country is that it will drive rational responses to serious problems. If there is no consensus on the causes or solutions to serious problems, it is unreasonable to ask a political system to implement forceful actions in a sustained way. Unfortunately, this is to an important extent the case with respect to current economic difficulties, especially in the industrial world.
"While there is agreement on the need for more growth and job creation in the short run and on containing the accumulation of debt in the long run, there are deep differences of opinion both within and across countries as to how this can be accomplished. What might be labelled the 'orthodox view' attributes much of our current difficulty to excess borrowing by the public and private sectors, emphasises the need to contain debt, puts a premium on credibly austere fiscal and monetary policies, and stresses the need for long-term structural measures rather than short-term demand-oriented steps to promote growth.
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Tuesday, October 16, 2012
Inflation: Washington is Blind to Main Street's Biggest Concern / Economics / Inflation
By: Peter_Schiff
Journalists, politicians and economists all seem to agree that the biggest economic issue currently worrying voters is unemployment. It follows then that most believe that the deciding factor in the presidential race will be the ability of each candidate to convince the public that his policies will create jobs. It seems that everyone got this memo...except the voters.
Tuesday, October 16, 2012
U.S. Economic Recovery, Monetary Policy, and Demographics Analysis / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Fresh on the heels of my 3:38 AM post Charting Errors in BLS Participation Rate Projections came an interesting speech by William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Bootle's, Bad Advice for the Greeks, Misunderstands Basic Economics / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: MISES
Patrick Barron writes: This summer Roger Bootle won Lord Wolfson's £250,000 prize for the best advice for a country leaving the European Monetary Union (one may assume that this advice is aimed at Greece). A more statist, anti-liberal policy than his could hardly be envisioned, which is a sad commentary on the mindset of the judges chosen by Lord Wolfson. His advice contrasted sharply with that of Dr. Philipp Bagus, whose liberal, transparent, and free-market-oriented policy advice was rejected in favor of Mr. Bootle's call for state secrecy and coercion.
Monday, October 15, 2012
U.S. Labour Force BLS Participation Rate Projections Charting Errors / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
The following graph plots labor force participation rates by BLS economist Mitra Toossi in November 2006 with new projections for the participation rate as of January 2012:
Monday, October 15, 2012
OECD Choices: Death By Economic Austerity Or By Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Andrew_McKillop
MORGAN STANLEY SAYS
In late July, Morgan Stanley summarized the no-win that laisser-faire, or rather laisser-aller deciders committed to doing nothing rational, have created for themselves and for us all in any Developed Market, advanced industrial (also called postindustrial) country. MS said the choice of fiscal, economic, monetary and related policy was between the Scylla of chase-your-tail austerity and the Charybdis of sovereign insolvency. In a rapidly rising number of countries, now daily reality in Europe's PIIGS, both these no- hope choices are being operated: they are not mutually exclusive.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
The Good, Bad and Ugly of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Inflation in the U.S. has historically been a wartime phenomenon, including not only shooting wars but also the Cold War and the War on Poverty. That's when the federal government vastly overspends its income on top of a robust private economy—obviously not the case today when government stimulus isn't even offsetting private sector weakness. Deflation reigns in peacetime, and I think it is again, with the end of the Iraq engagement and as the unwinding of Afghanistan expenditures further reduce military spending.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
When It Comes to Forecasting, Consumers are Smarter Than 'Conomists / Economics / US Economy
By: Lee_Adler
The Thompson Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released this morning, and like just about every other September release, it hugely beat economists consensus expectations. I had written several pieces in September alluding to the fact that withholding tax collections had surged early in the month and continued to do well thereafter, foreshadowing what would be stronger than expected economic releases for September.
Saturday, October 13, 2012
What do White-Winged Doves have to do with Economics? / Economics / US Economy
By: D_Sherman_Okst
Everything!
This short, nonfiction, tragicomedy personifies what is wrong with our country, our economy and our totally inept and very dysfunctional legal system that has become a leech to taxpayers and a threat to humanity.
The Great Depression of the 1930s was brought upon by lawlessness. Documented, historical proof that a functioning economy is dependent on a basic legal framework. One that we no longer have.
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Saturday, October 13, 2012
How Long Will Iran’s Hyperinflation Run For? / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Since I first estimated Iran’s hyperinflation at 69.6% per month, many people have asked, how long will it last? To answer that question, I have posted my “Hanke Chart of the Day” and will let the data speak for themselves.
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Friday, October 12, 2012
China Banking Ponzi Crisis, China Will Grow Old Before it Grows Rich / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Ponzi schemes and off-balance sheet loans in China's banking system are in the forefront of today's news. Reuters reports Bank of China executive warns of shadow banking risks
Read full article... Read full article...A senior Chinese banking executive has warned against the proliferation of off-book wealth management products, comparing some to a Ponzi scheme in a rare official acknowledgement of the risks they pose to the Chinese banking system.
Friday, October 12, 2012
QE-U, China, and Great Economic Depression 2.0 / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Andy_Sutton
With the pop from the USFed’s latest attempt at financial shock and awe already seeping from lackluster markets, and the teleprompter news networks losing steam over their promotion of the same, it is time to take a look back at the decisions made on 9/13/2012 and set the record straight on some things.
Friday, October 12, 2012
America's New Great Depression - Sluggish Economic Growth, Staggering National Debt / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Global_Research
Dr. Rossen Vassilev writes: The American economy is caught between the Scylla of sluggish economic growth and the Charybdis of a staggering national debt aggravated by Washington’s unyielding partisan deadlock over taxes and spending cuts.
After the Great Recession of 2008, the approaching “fiscal cliff” at the end of this year threatens to cause even more economic havoc and bring about another recession which some “doom-and-gloom” economists darkly predict may turn into a new Great Depression.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Euro-zone Debt Crisis, What Happens When The Core Starts To Rot / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
While we're all watching Spain and Greece, their alleged saviors in the rich core of the eurozone are starting to show serious signs of corrosion. This makes all the hollow words and promises coming from the world of troikas and politics sound even emptier than they already did. Not that anyone in Holland or Germany seems to even be prepared to think their economies are in for a big fall; for them, all the bad stuff is temporary, and soon it will all be better. Our proverbial Martian might be tempted to think denial is a river in northern Europe.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Spain Headed in a Downward Economic Death Spiral? / Economics / Spain
By: Ian_R_Campbell
An article yesterday discusses what appears to be continued downward economic trends in Spain. I see this as hardly unexpected by those who have been following Spain closely.
I strongly suggest you read Austerity fails to close Spain's budget black hole if you have not already done that. If you participate in the financial markets, and Spain is not highly visible on your radar screen, I suggest it ought to be.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Counterproductive Minimum Wage Mandates / Economics / Economic Theory
By: BATR
Working for wages has never been the path for significant wealth. Most people are not equipped nor do they have the inclination to be engaged in business endeavors that will earn them a viable living. The reluctance that most workers bring to their occupation stems from their inability or unwillingness of properly understanding the related components that are essential in creating wealth. While many view work as a curse, the indispensable reconciliation for a practical and tolerable acceptance of universal plight is that no one is owed a living.
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Wednesday, October 10, 2012
U.S. Jobs Report Will Not Derail Fed / Economics / Employment
By: Michael_Pento
The gold market dropped nearly $20 an ounce shortly after the U.S. Non-farm Payroll report was released on Friday. The Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%, from 8.1% in the month prior. Gold prices retreated on the fear that the Fed may decide to truncate its debt monetization schemes in the near future.
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Tuesday, October 09, 2012
China and the Global Economic Crisis of Industrial Overcapacity / Economics / China Economy
By: Andrew_McKillop
EARLY MATURITY
This term now has a special meaning. Not only OECD economies, and especially their leading industrial manufacturing sectors, but also these sectors in the Emerging economies are downsizing at an accelerating pace. After the shrink in industrial and manufacturing activity, in the mature or "post mature" OECD economies, comes the downsizing of the entire economy which in Europe, especially in the PIIGS, is now the rule and a new "tradition". Any other way is now an eccentric hope, and outside the PIIGS an increasing number of other EU27 economies are moving to net shrinkage, including the UK and France.
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
U.S. Unemployment Rate Drop Surprise / Economics / Unemployment
By: John_Mauldin
The unemployment number surprisingly dropped to 7.8% last Friday, and the shoot-from-the-hip crowd came out in force. To say that the jobs report was met with skepticism would be a serious understatement. The response that got the most immediate airplay was ex-GE CEO Jack Welch (who knows a few things about making a number say what you want it to say) tweeting, "Unbelievable job numbers ... these Chicago guys will do anything ... can't debate so change numbers."
Not be left out, Fox Business quoted Ed Butowsky of Chapwood Capital Investment: "'No way in the world these numbers are accurate,' he said. 'Somebody needs to do an investigation.... Investigate these numbers.'"
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