Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, June 14, 2009
How long Can the U.S. Dollar Last as the World’s Reserve Currency? / Currencies / US Dollar
Bob Chapman writes: The big question is how long can the dollar last as the world’s reserve currency? Needless to say, that is not an easy question to answer. We recently called the top on the dollar at 89.50 on the USDX. The USDX is six currencies versus the dollar on a weighted basis. More than a year ago the dollar hit a low on the USDX at 71.18. A phenomenal rally ensued from that level expedited by de-leveraging and the closing out positions within the carry trade. A good example of the carry trade was when a bank in NYC borrowed yen. At ½% interest, sold the yen for dollars and bought dollar denominated securities.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
US Dollar Index Embarking on Voyage of Recovery… / Currencies / US Dollar
…at the least over the shorter term. Last week the US Dollar Index started to rebound from technical support, aided by an interesting ‘Fibonacci’ projection which we detail below. Our bullish view here underpins our thinking across a range of markets that we cover in the FX Trading Guide, where we have adopted some early, somewhat aggressive reverse stances.
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Thursday, June 11, 2009
EUR/USD Forex Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
The EUR rose in early trading and is currently testing the 1.4050 resistance level, which is a former support level.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Falling Stock Markets Still Key for the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
The intermarket relationship underpinning the US currency and global equities remains largely unhinged, with falling equities persisting as the longe saviour for the corroding US dollar. And so once again the falling US dollar got a fresh respite from a falling stock market. Earlier in the day, the dollar seemed to succumb to one of those typical selling waves after better than expected UK housing numbers, improving confidence figures in Australia and higher than expected Norwegian inflation -- all of which bolstered the rally of these currencies against the greenback. Such figures reduce the need for quantitative easing in these economies, which only add to a widening in their yield differential ahead of the US currency.
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Wednesday, June 10, 2009
EUR/USD Range Break Pending / Currencies / Forex Trading
The pair is nestled in a congestion area of old support and resistance levels. The range is currently 1.4050-1.4100. Based on average daily movements we can expect at least 90-100+ pips of movement outside of this this range.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Will the British Pound Get Pounded? / Currencies / British Pound
Bryan Rich writes: When financial markets were on the way down, risk aversion reigned and every investment that was deemed risky crashed. The U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasuries did well as global investors fled to safety.
But for the last three months this trade has been in retracement mode. And the further it has retraced, the more it has fueled optimism in the outlook for a recovery.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
USD/SGD Key Reversal Day Heralds Rebound / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Daily charts of the markets we follow in the FX TRADING GUIDE are littered with Key Reversal Days and Almost-Key Reversal Days from earlier this week. We’ll be looking at all of these in next week’s Guide, but here we have chosen USD/SGD as an example – rebound is on the cards.
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Friday, June 05, 2009
Russian Ruble to be made from Palladium / Currencies / Russia
Boris Gryzlov, the speaker of the Russian Parliament, the State Duma, said that the participants of the Economic Forum in St. Petersburg would discuss a possibility of making ruble coins from precious metals.
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Thursday, June 04, 2009
The Plummeting U.S. Dollar Economic Prosperity Plan / Currencies / US Dollar
It is becoming painfully obvious that the Fed, Treasury, and Administration's disastrous recovery plan hinges on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Their specious strategy stems from the belief that a falling currency can re-ignite exports and spark a recovery in manufacturing while putting a floor in U.S. asset prices. But just as the President's initials indicate, the plan stinks of B.O.
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Thursday, June 04, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally Ahead of Today's Interest Rates Decisions / Currencies / Forex Trading
EUR/USD
With news out of the US and the EURO zone today a larger than average range is expected (150 + pips).
Thursday, June 04, 2009
Bernanke's Math - Does It Add Up? / Currencies / US Dollar
The current account deficit is down as we are less reliant on foreigners to finance our deficits; the government's deficit is increasingly covered by the domestic private sector as private sector borrowing is down. -- These were the approximate words of Fed Chairman Bernanke in testimony to the House Budget Committe. This statement is so troublesome, let's examine it a step at the time.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Strength Puts Euro Near Critical Support / Currencies / Forex Trading
The darling commodity trade such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) is getting hammered today, mostly because of dollar strength. Just when the Euro looked like it was about to rocket above key resistance at 144.00, the price structure reverses in a significant way.
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Wednesday, June 03, 2009
EUR/USD Continues to March, USD/JPY Swings Continue / Currencies / Forex Trading
A pair has just pulled off the highs in the early Tokyo session, but the trend is still up and the bias is still up.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
Speculative Bets Against the U.S. Dollar Highest Since July 15 2008 / Currencies / US Dollar
Anti-dollar sentiment is again running rampant. Please consider Bets against dollar highest since start of economic crisis.
Read full article... Read full article...Speculative bets against the dollar have risen to their highest level since the onset of the financial crisis.
Tuesday, June 02, 2009
EUR/USD Awaits Breakout, USD/JPY Flag Pattern / Currencies / Forex Trading
The pair has been stuck in a range through early trading, but the EUR is showing early signs of weakness.A drop below the lows of 1.4100 would confirm a swing down and would target 1.4020 and beyond this 1.3980.
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Monday, June 01, 2009
Shorting Yen vs. U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Forex Trading
My foreign exchange work on Dollar/Yen is screaming at me to short the yen against the greenback via the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (NYSE: YCS) as a reflection of what should be deteriorating fundamentals in Japan (commodity procurement as oil and other commodities climb, as well as continued sluggishness in global consumption which will retard Japanese exports...as well as rising U.S. interest rates vis-a-vis Japanese rates).
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Monday, June 01, 2009
China Forced to Support U.S. Dollar to Defend $2 trillion Currency Reserves / Currencies / US Dollar
China is uncomfortable about being the principal creditor of the United States. Asia’s largest nation became the hostage of the US economy in the 21st century. The reserves of the People’s Republic of China are based on dollar assets - $2 trillion. US Treasury Bonds make $700 billion of the amount. China is forced to continue crediting the budget deficit of the United States not to let these reserves go down in value.
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Monday, June 01, 2009
EUR/USD Continues Uptrend, USD/JPY Sideways Swings / Currencies / Forex Trading
The EUR/USD has started higher once again after bouncing off of the 1.4100 level. Resistance is currently at 1.4160. A break above this level would signal a move to 1.4220-1.4240. Beyond this there is little resistance till 1.4350.
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Sunday, May 31, 2009
Panacea For a Mismanaged Nation is Inflation of the Currency / Currencies / Fiat Currency
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” Ernest Hemingway
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Saturday, May 30, 2009
US Dollar Hegemony Over China and Russia / Currencies / US Dollar
Bob Chapman writes: The Chinese and Russians are the laughing stock of the US and European Illuminists at the G-20 meetings concerning talk about a new world reserve currency to supplant the dollar. With China's gold reserves of about a thousand tons and Russia's five hundred tons, they are like penny ante poker players trying to get in on a thousand dollar ante game. They need five to ten thousand tons of gold reserves just to be an average player in "The Big Game," much less a leading and influential player. The rest of their foreign exchange reserves are denominated in fiat currencies, which are all practically worthless except for the euro and Swiss franc.
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