Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Don't Forget the Yen, Especially During Risk Aversion / Currencies / Japanese Yen
Much has been said about the US dollar's role as a funding currency for carry trades and its well publicized rebound during the most recent episode of risk aversion (Oct 21-Nov 2). But once again, it was the Japanese yen that outperformed the US dollar as well as all major currencies. This helps explains why the emerging gains in non-USD currencies (EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD etc) remain limited against the JPY when equity markets are on the rise and are quick to lose ground vs. JPY than against USD. Both USD and JPY pay ultra low interest rates, with 3-month LIBOR at 0.27% and 0.32% respectively. But the medium term future prospects remain brighter for JPY relative to USD.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Currency Traders Await Release of Bank of England's (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
The report sets out a detailed economic analysis and inflation projection on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to present an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the next two years.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
U.S. Dollar Meltdown / Currencies / US Dollar
I had the pleasure of reading a final finished copy of The Dollar Meltdown by Charles Goyette this past week.
Congressman Ron Paul offers an opinion on the front cover to which I certainly concur: "Goyette does a great job explaining why America faces a looming financial crisis and outlines commonsense strategies for individuals to protect themselves and their families. This book truly is a must read."
Friday, November 06, 2009
EUR/USD Bulls’ Unease After Key Reversal Week / Currencies / Forex Trading
Bulls are on the alert after a recent potential reversal signal on the Weekly chart. But so far not enough has been done on the downside to fully persuade the bears, and the jury is still out, deliberating.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 06, 2009
The Hated U.S. Dollar Might Rally / Currencies / US Dollar
Few essays I’ve ever written have drawn as much ire as the ones in which I propose that the US Dollar might rally. The US Dollar is indeed hated, so hated that people will hate you just for considering that it might rally.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 05, 2009
Who Cares About the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
Who cares about the dollar? It turns out quite a few do, except for those who could put it on a course to long-term recovery. First of all, you should care, as the purchasing power of your dollar savings is at risk when the dollar plunges versus other currencies. Let’s examine a couple of groups, what they have at stake and how influential they may be.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 05, 2009
U.S. Dollar Drifts Ahead of U.S. Unemployment Rate / Currencies / US Dollar
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
When the U.S. Dollar Rallies, the Stock Market Will Crash / Currencies / US Dollar
Interest rates. The Fed does not need slinky women in plunging necklines to peddle money. All it needs is low interest rates. When rates are pushed lower than the rate of inflation, the Fed provides a subsidy for borrowing. This is not as hard to grasp as it sounds. If I offered to give you $1.00 for very 90 cents you gave me in return, you would buy as many dollars from me as you could.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
U.S. Dollar Still Looks Weak in the Short-term / Currencies / Forex Trading
With unemployment still at historic highs and the state of the economy still fragile, most top economists expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to announce Wednesday (November 4) afternoon that the Central Bank is keep its key interest rate at its current low point.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Dethroning of the U.S. Dollar Will Happen Sooner Than You Think / Currencies / US Dollar
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: By now virtually every investor has heard the argument that the U.S. dollar is slated to lose its status as the global reserve currency. And that’s good – as far as it goes.
What’s bad is that many of these investors have yet to latch onto the fact that this could happen much sooner than many people realize and in a manner that will catch most by surprise.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Currency Markets Wait on Initial Jobless Claims Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
Initial Jobless Claims to Be Published in the US Tomorrow. The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Upside Alert / Currencies / US Dollar
The Dollar could fool everyone ...
Just as Foreign countries are diversifying out of the Dollar ... just as the Dollar's carry trade is being overdone, the Dollar is poised to make an upside run.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
U.S. Dollar Looks Ahead to the FOMC Interest Rate Decision / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tomorrow (Nov 4).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
Monday, November 02, 2009
U.S. Dollar Meltdown / Currencies / US Dollar
Doug French writes: The current investment climate is more perilous than ever. The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet continues to grow stuffed with the dubious paper purchased from the too-big-to-fail banks that are now wards of the state. The music stopped and there were no chairs, but the Fed and the Treasury snapped their fingers and trillions of dollars later the chairs appeared, the band played on and the banks live on. The taxpayers are now the not-so-proud owners of AIG, General Motors, Fannie and Freddie and dozens of banks. Where did the money come from? Out of thin air.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 02, 2009
Is the U.S. Dollar About To Crush Stocks? / Currencies / US Dollar
Long-time readers know that I’ve begun to develop a love/hate relationship with the US Dollar. On one hand I believe the US currency is horribly flawed given our unserviceable debt load and the Fed’s profligate spending.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 02, 2009
Sterling Traders Await Release of Nationwide Consumer Confidence Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
UK traders await the release of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence report tomorrow (Nov 3rd) - The report is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers, and measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 02, 2009
Do You Really Want To Short The U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
Lets face it…everyone seems to hate the US Dollar…Seems every Forex trader wants to be short the US dollar. So many think the US dollar will crash ( maybe it will..who knows).. but what I do know as a commodity trader..when too many traders are on the other side of the boat… something happens. My short on the US dollar was recently taken out.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 01, 2009
U.S. Dollar Bull Market Scenario Update / Currencies / US Dollar
The most recent price action has seen the U.S. Dollar manage to hold onto USD 75 support that has propelled the dollar back through 76, however the trend over the past 2 months has been weak. The last update of the US Dollar bull market scenario of mid August 2009 called for a rally that targets USD 90 by the end of this year as long as 75 holds, as indicated by the original chart below :
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Chinese Yuan the Most Undervalued Currency in the World / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
When the leaders from the 20 most powerful countries in the world (including China) met last month, they left with a pledge to work toward rebalancing global economies.
That means countries running large trade deficits, like the U.S., would save more, consume less, and produce more … and export-driven economies, like China, would spend more and export less.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 30, 2009
Yuan Currency Swap / Currencies / China Currency Yuan
On March 23, 2009, China made public announcements to overhaul the global monetary system, thereby questioning the role of the US dollar as the reserve currency.1 Chinese officials have gone on record saying they want to move the global currency peg away from the dollar in favour of currency diversification as indicated by China's push for OPEC to price oil in a basket of currencies (including the yuan) instead of dollars.
Read full article... Read full article...