Category: Gold & Silver 2024
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, June 08, 2024
Gold Summer Doldrums / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold, silver, and their miners’ stocks suffer their weakest seasonals of the year in early summers. With traders’ attention normally diverted to vacations and summer fun, interest in and demand for precious metals usually wane. Without outsized investment demand, gold tends to drift sideways to lower dragging silver and miners’ stocks with it. Long feared as the summer doldrums, they can offer good buying opportunities.
This doldrums term is very apt for gold’s traditional summer predicament. It describes a zone surrounding the equator in the world’s oceans. There hot air is constantly rising, spawning long-lived low-pressure areas. They are often calm, with little prevailing winds. History is full of accounts of sailing ships getting trapped in this zone for days or weeks, unable to make headway. The doldrums were murder on ships’ morale.
Crews had no idea when the winds would pick up again, while they continued burning through their limited stores of food and drink. Without moving air, the stifling heat and humidity were suffocating on those ships long before air conditioning. Misery and boredom grew extreme, leading to fights breaking out and occasional mutinies. Being trapped in the doldrums was viewed with dread, it was a very trying experience.
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Friday, June 07, 2024
How Much Gold Is There In the World? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
The quick answer is not much - at least not relatively speaking.
According to the World Gold Council, as of the end of 2023, around 212,582 tons of gold have been mined throughout history. About two-thirds of that amount was dug out of the ground since 1950.
That sounds like a lot of gold, but if you melted down every ounce of gold ever mined and formed it into one block, it would only measure 73 feet on each side.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
India Silver Imports Have Already Topped 2023 Total / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
India imported more silver through the first four months of 2024 than it did in the entirety of last year.
Indian silver imports totaled 4,172 tons of silver from January through April. That compares with 455 tons during the same period in 2023.
India imported 3,625 tons of silver last year.
India ranks as the world's number one silver consumer.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
Gold Has Done Its Job – Isn’t That Enough? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD HAS DONE ITS JOB
For most of us who understand what gold is (and, what it isn’t), gold continues to perform as reasonably expected. Rather, its price continues to reflect the ongoing loss of purchasing power in the U.S. dollar. Gold, itself, isn’t doing anything at all. (see Not About Gold; All About The Dollar)
Short term nominal profits notwithstanding, gold’s value is the same as it is always. Gold is real money and its value is in its use as money. Gold is a medium of exchange, a measure of value, and a long-term store of value.
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Friday, May 31, 2024
Gold Stocks Catching Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
After getting off to a slow start in this upleg, gold miners’ stocks are beginning to catch up with their metal. Gold stocks lagged dreadfully early on, but are increasingly outperforming in gold’s remarkable breakout surge of recent months. These mounting gold-stock gains are boosting bullish sentiment, attracting in more traders accelerating the upside. This virtuous circle of capital inflows still has a long way to run.
If gold stocks can’t leverage gold’s gains, they aren’t worth owning. While miners have high potential to soar with their metal, they bear big additional risks. Those include all kinds of operational, geological, regulatory, and geopolitical challenges and problems. And they are all heaped on top of the biggest risk of all, gold price trends! Yet that’s the only risk in gold bullion, so miners’ stocks really need to outperform.
If they don’t, speculators and investors are much better off sticking to gold itself. Historically the leading GDX gold-stock ETF has amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x. This range’s lower end is probably the minimum acceptable to compensate traders for gold stocks’ big additional risks. And the upper end is where this high-flying sector can quickly multiply wealth. Unfortunately much of gold’s latest upleg saw neither.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Gold vs. Silver – Very Important Medium-term Signal / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold and silver soared and plunged together, but… Not at the same pace. And this can tell a lot.
Recent Movements and Their Implications
The way in which both precious metals move relative to each other is not random. It has specific rhythms and patterns, and understanding what it means can give one an extra edge over other market participants. Every now and then, the gold-to-silver ratio moves in a specific manner that indicates something important for the following weeks – and that’s exactly what happened.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Is Gold Price Heading to $2,275 - 2,280? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: The_Gold_Report
USD index has given back recent gains this morning with bond yields continuing to rise.
Gold (+.2%) and silver (+.77%) are rebounding very slightly but there has occurred some s/t technical damage, especially for gold. Copper (- .2%) and oil (-.08%) are lower, while stock index futures are modestly higher across the board.
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Saturday, May 25, 2024
Gold Mid Tier Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Zeal_LLC
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential recently wrapped up their latest earnings season. These fundamentally-superior smaller gold producers delivered big last quarter, reporting spectacular results. The potent combination of record gold prices, lower mining costs, and better production fueled some of their richest profits ever. Yet mid-tiers still remain way undervalued.
The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $5.5b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!
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Thursday, May 23, 2024
All That Glitters Isn't Gold: Silver Has Outperformed Gold During This Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
All that glitters isn’t gold.
Silver also has quite a shine lately.
While gold has gotten the headlines, silver has had a solid bull run over the last several months. In fact, the white metal has outperformed gold in this gold bull market.
Last week, silver charted an 11 percent gain, cracking $30 an ounce for the first time in over a decade.
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Gold and Silver Expose Stock Market’s Phony Gains / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Wall Street is ecstatic after the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit 40,000 for the first time ever. The nominal record makes for plenty of pithy headlines.
The Dow is indeed racing higher in terms of depreciating U.S. fiat dollars. But what about in terms of real money – gold and silver?
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Silver Price Forecast: Trumpeting the Jubilee | Sovereign Debt Defaults / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Hubert_Moolman
Over the last 125 years, the silver chart has formed two remarkable, similar patterns. The chart below shows a yearly silver chart (only closing values):
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Sunday, May 19, 2024
Could We See $27,000 Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Could we see $27,000 gold?
That seems far-fetched but financial analyst and investment banker Jim Rickards makes the case that it could happen.
Gold charted a big rally in recent months, hitting a new all-time high of over $2,400 an ounce last month. Even with the higher prices, gold demand has remained robust. Central banks globally are adding gold to their reserves, as have investors, particularly in the East.
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Sunday, May 19, 2024
The Gold and Silver Ship Will Set Sail! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Over the last couple of months, gold has scaled record highs, peaking at over $2,430 an ounce before correcting and settling in the $2,300 range.
That's a healthy gain. But you could argue that gold remains significantly underpriced given the inflation we've experienced that continues to rapidly devalue the dollar.
That leaves many people wondering when gold is really going to break out.
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Thursday, May 09, 2024
Could Chinese Gold Be the Straw That Breaks the Dollar's Back? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
There are cracks in the foundation of dollar dominance. Could Chinese gold be the straw that breaks the dollar’s back?
In a column published by the Telegraph, economist Julian Jessop points out that people have been predicting the dollar's demise for decades. Eventually, they'll be right.
“And that day may be drawing much closer.”
It may seem premature to talk about the demise of the dollar. Based on the dollar index, the greenback is stronger than ever. But this doesn’t necessarily reflect the greatness of the dollar. It’s more a function of weakness in other global currencies. As the saying goes, the dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry.
Wednesday, May 08, 2024
Gold 2008 and 2022 All Over Again? Stocks, USDX / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can the HUGE price move from those years really be repeated?
Analogous Situations: 2008, 2022, and Now
As gold continues to move back and forth in the same trading range, I decided to dedicate today’s analysis to something different. After all, I already described my current gold price forecast for May 2024 and the situation in the forex market remains just as I had described it earlier.
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Monday, April 29, 2024
Inflation Still Runs Hot, Gold and Silver Prices Stabilize / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
As economic data comes in worse than expected, investor uncertainty is rattling markets.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department released its estimate of Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter. GDP growth came in at a disappointing 1.6% -- well short of the 2.3% consensus forecast.
Stocks sold off on the news. But gold and silver markets bounced modestly off their lows from earlier in the week.
Monday, April 08, 2024
Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: MoneyMetals
Another week, another record high for gold.
On Wednesday, the monetary metal surged above $2,300 per ounce. It took a bit of a breather Thursday ahead of today’s key employment report but it rallied again on Friday.
Turning to silver, it made a significant breakout of its own this week. The white metal shot up above the $27 level to a fresh 2-year high and rallied to over $27.50 on Friday
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Gary_Tanashian
On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface
Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown of the details as posted earlier. However, let’s pluck one graphic from that post and illustrate a phenomenon I’ve been watching unfold for several months in a row; that of unabated government hiring this election year.
The USS Good Ship Lollipop sails along, supported by its vast services economy and construction (a product of the services industries, not a productive industry itself, unlike for example, manufacturing) as well as a continued trend of brisk government hiring this election year. I am not going to play politics (I am dispirited by both major parties) but as usual, I am going to lay out facts so that we can properly manage the situation from an investment perspective.
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Sunday, April 07, 2024
What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD PRICE IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT
With the increasing gold price of late comes the assumption that the expected cut in interest rates will open a torrent of cheap money that will bring the U.S. dollar down with a thud. But, what would happen to the gold price if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?
What seemed like a universally expected event may not be as likely as some have assumed. In fact, the Fed has a history that includes examples of pivots and re-pivots; or, ignoring the presumed pivot and staying the course.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024
By: Clif_Droke
Of the many factors that determine gold price trends, the long-term cycle of inflation and deflation is of singular importance. The cycle in question corresponds closely to the 50-to-60-year economic periodicity known as the Kondratieff Wave (or K-Wave), but is in fact a separate cycle. As we’ll discuss here, the cycle tells us to expect a gradual acceleration of inflationary pressures between now and the year 2029, with particular significance for gold investors.
The K-Wave was brought to renown in the 1920s by the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff and is widely regarded as the predominant economic super cycle. This cycle arguably represents the most casual approach to identifying the real supply/demand conditions of any free market economy and is especially applicable to the United States. (Cycle analysts have even identified this cycle as existing as far back as thousands of years ago in Assyria and the Roman Empire.)
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