Category: Gold and Silver 2022
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, August 12, 2024
Gold’s Minsky Moment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Richard_Mills
A “Minsky Moment” refers to a point in time when a period of bullish speculation leads to a spectacular market crash.
Named after economist Hyman Minsky, the theory centers around the inherent instability of stock markets.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
What Signals Do Gold, Silver, and Stocks Send to Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the statistics scream, investors, often blinded by emotions, do not hear them. However, since history seems to rhyme, what do gold, silver, and mining stocks have in store for us?
What a boring month!
At least for those who monitor the performance of junior mining stocks. It’s Dec. 29, and the monthly price change for the GDXJ ETF is $0.15 (0.41%). That’s how much higher the GDXJ is now than it was at the end of November. That’s next to nothing – almost a “statistical error.”
Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Despite the War in Europe, Gold Remains Below Its 2011 High / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Can gold's recent short-term rally be considered bullish, or can we expect a decline like in 2008?
Is Silver Really Strong?
Gold and silver are moving higher today, but nothing really changed despite that. Silver moved to its previous highs, while gold didn’t (chart courtesy of https://GoldPriceForecast.com).
Friday, December 23, 2022
The Breakout That’s REALLY Important for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Since the gold market now shows parallels to 2008 and 2013, what can we expect if the correction has just ended?
The USDX's Breakout
The changes that we saw on the charts yesterday were not enough to change anything that I described yesterday, so those comments remain up-to-date. Also, what I covered during yesterday’s live event (I combined the live market analysis with the presentation about the top 3 gold trading techniques – you can see the recording here) remains up-to-date at the moment of writing these words.
Friday, December 16, 2022
Gold Defies Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold defied another hawkish Fed decision this week, consolidating high in its immediate wake. That was an impressive show of strength, after this extreme Fed tightening cycle hammered gold for a half-year or so. That strong performance reflects gold-futures speculators’ weakening resolve to keep shorting. With their long-side selling exhausted, they have massive mean-reversion buying to do which is super-bullish for gold.
Gold was looking really good technically heading into this week’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Since late September, it had blasted 11.5% higher in a powerful rebound on big gold-futures short-covering buying. That catapulted gold back above its key 200-day moving average on FOMC eve, by the most since mid-June. Gold was a hair away from a decisive 200dma breakout, after escaping its downtrend.
The FOMC decision itself wasn’t a surprise, with the Fed hiking its federal-funds rate by 50 basis points. That was a sharp slowdown from the streak of monster 75bp hikes executed at its previous four meetings. The FOMC statement was virtually unchanged from its last iteration in early November. With this week’s 50bp hike universally expected, that didn’t faze gold-futures speculators. They focused on something else.
Once a quarter after every other FOMC decision, the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections by individual top Fed officials. This is better known as the dot plot, since it shows where they see FFR levels heading in the future. Though notoriously unreliable in predicting where the FFR is actually going according to the Fed chair himself, traders lap that up. This week it proved more hawkish than expected.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Demand For Gold – No New Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
As investors and others continue to jockey for position in order to announce that “the bottom is in for gold” or that “gold owners received an early Christmas present” or “crypto failures will translate to higher prices for gold”, it is clear that most of them are thinking that increased demand for gold will drive its price higher.
That is not the way it works.
FACT NO. 1 The price of gold is NOT driven by demand for gold.
FACT NO. 2 The price of gold tells us NOTHING about gold.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Since the Gold Rally Has Stopped, Can a Reversal Be Expected? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold’s rally was just stopped by the resistance provided by its previous high and its 60-week moving average. Will gold now reverse?
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
Invalidations Across the Market Have Major Implications for Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The invalidations of breakouts and breakdowns are strong signals in the opposite direction, and we just saw them throughout the market – also in gold.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Gold Bullion’s Under-Appreciated Feature: It Will Never Go to Zero / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Physical gold and silver will never become worthless. This fact does not make for much of a marketing pitch. But given recent events, this is a much more important feature than it looks at first glance.
Americans, and investors around the world, live in an age of collapsing confidence in institutions. The bubble economy built on zero interest rates by out-of-control central bankers appears to be in danger of implosion.
Companies can fail, and their share prices can go to zero. Bond issuers can default on their debt. This happens rarely in strong economies, but it can happen wholesale when bubbles pop.
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Tuesday, November 29, 2022
SILVER INVESTORS – MONEY TO BURN? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
Over the past two years, there have been some wild and crazy things happen with regard to premiums charged and paid for various physical silver investment products. For the privilege of owning silver in certain specific forms, investors are paying through the nose; and, apparently, willingly so. WHY? Is the cash burning holes in their pockets?
I just completed a review of current market premiums for both silver and gold products. It shouldn’t be a surprise as to what particular product heads the list for the most expensive premiums. Investors are having a torrid love affair with U.S. Silver Eagles.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
Why Silver Price 'Should Resume Upwards Path / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month, 1-year, and 5-year charts to tell you where he believes the future is headed for this precious metal.
When the dollar broke down over a week ago, silver joined gold in breaking higher, as we can see on its 4-month chart below, and now we are seeing a normal post-breakout reaction as the dollar rallies somewhat to relieve the extreme condition that resulted from its steep lunge.
Once the dollar’s relief rally is done, silver should resume the upward path.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
US Bond Market and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably owes to the fact that my earliest (gold bug) training in the markets was with an eye toward the dangers of debt in a fiat driven system.
In other words, how could I take seriously the debt of a government hopelessly in multi-trillions of dollars in debt and adding to it all the time? That is what a bond as an investment is, a call on the debt of, in this case, a supposedly high quality entity (the US government). No thank you.
Though I am not well liked in some corners of the gold promotion err, analysis business, I consider myself today to be a full on gold bug just as I did 20 years ago. Nothing has changed because gold does not change. It has remained a steady literal and figurative rock within the financial system for years, decades and centuries. It’s what confidence in risk assets – including bonds – is measured by.
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Sunday, November 27, 2022
Gold and Silver Post Breakout Reaction Provides Another Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
With the breakdown of the U.S. dollar, expert Clive Maund reviews charts for gold, copper, and palladium to tell you where he believes the metals are headed and which he thinks you should buy.
The last update was prescient as it called for a major breakdown in the dollar and breakouts by gold and silver, all of which happened just days later. If this were 2010 or 2011, this update would have generated considerable interest and numerous emails, but today nothing — it was greeted with a yawn.
This means one of two things or a combination of the two – either American investors or others are now broke and have no money to invest. Hence no interest or sentiment towards the precious metals sector is now so negative after recent underperformance that there is no enthusiasm for it.
I believe that the explanation is largely the latter reason, in which case it is exceedingly bullish because the more negative the sentiment towards a sector, the more upside potential it has, and I saw an article or video confirming this a few days ago because it described the rally this month as a “bull trap.”
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Tuesday, November 22, 2022
GOLD AND THE NORMALCY BIAS / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
We think we know most (if not, all) of what we need to know about gold. Investors do their research and marketers spin their best yarn(s). Support is offered with an amazing array of fundamental and technical factors on display for all to see. But what are we not seeing?
NORMALCY BIAS DEFINITION
normalcy bias (noun)
“The phenomenon of disbelieving one’s situation when faced with grave and imminent danger and/or catastrophe.” …Wictionary
Here is a better, more complete definition from a different source…
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Monday, November 21, 2022
Gold Price Formed a Bearish Star, and It’s Not Even Christmas Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Last week was full of events, but the most important one clarified after Friday’s closing bell – gold formed a reversal “shooting star” candlestick.
The implications are just as you think they are. After a sharp run-up, the rally has run its course, and the yellow metal is now about to slide again.
Let’s take a closer look.
Friday, November 18, 2022
As inflation eases, Macro grinds favor of Gold Stocks Mining Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The macro market and economic backdrop continues to pivot favorable for the gold mining sector
The risk/reward for gold stocks has been very good after 2.5 years of correction that, contrary to what a majority of gold bugs think, was very valid amid the post-pandemic cycle of cyclical inflation. I won’t review the details about why here, as it is beyond the scope of this article and I’ve parroted them in several blog posts at nftrh.com. But suffice it to say, the gold stock sector did the work it was supposed to do since August, 2020.
In a previous post we noted the risk/reward of gold (mining product) vs. crude oil (mining cost driver) that is at once very bearish for gold stocks and implying a great risk/reward proposition for gold, and by extension, the gold mining sector. Here is a chart showing the Gold/Oil ratio in a very depressed (bearish) state with nowhere left to go but up. That’s the positive risk/reward that has been hammered out since the high risk days of mid-2020 as the ‘inflation trades’ were just getting underway.
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Friday, November 18, 2022
Can a Gold Stocks Rally Be Bearish? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
History tends to repeat itself, and mining stocks appear to be repeating their 2008 performance, which has very interesting implications.
Why do I think that gold miners are repeating their 2008 price patterns? Please take a look at the below chart.
Thursday, November 10, 2022
Why Now 'Is a Great Time To Load up on Silver and Silver Investments / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Clive_Maund
Expert Clive Maund reviews silver's 4-month and 1-year charts to tell you why he believes it is a good time to load up on this precious metal.
Silver has three irresistible attributes at this time, one is that it is very cheap historically, especially when you factor in mounting inflation in recent times. Another is that, in common with metals generally, it looks set to enter a robust bull market as the dollar breaks down into a severe bear market.
The arguments relating to why the dollar looks set to break down have been set out in the parallel Gold Market update, as have the other circumstantial factors supportive of a rising silver price, such as the upside breakouts by copper and oil, so they will not be repeated here.
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Tuesday, November 08, 2022
What Did the US Dollar Have to Do With Gold’s Nov 7th Rally? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold, silver and mining stocks’ prices soared on Friday. Let’s see if the dollar may have had something to do with this movement.
Very little happened in the precious metals market yesterday, and what I wrote and said yesterday remains up-to-date.
I got a request to comment on the USD Index (and its link with gold), and I’ll be happy to deliver.
Sunday, November 06, 2022
Yield Curve Flashes Recession Alert! Better Times for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The key yield curve has inverted, shouting loudly that a recession is coming - and with it, better times for gold.I activated the high-degree recession alert! I’ve been writing about the downturn for some time, but in October, another important indicator flashed a red light. As you can see on the chart below, the key yield curve has inverted.
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