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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold and Silver 2022

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, November 04, 2022

Fed Continues Tough Talk, but Gold & Silver Show Resilience / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Precious metals investors remain cautious following the Federal Reserve’s latest jumbo rate hike.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced another three-quarter point bump up on interest rates. It’s the sixth straight hike by central bankers and brings the Fed funds rate up to 4%. That’s the highest it has been since 2008.

Investors fully anticipated the Fed’s latest move but hoped it would be accompanied by a dovish statement from Chairman Jerome Powell. Instead, Powell threw cold water on the idea of a pause or pivot at the FOMC’s next meeting. In his remarks, he sounded less like a dove and more like a grinch who was preparing to severely punish Americans for the Fed’s past mismanagement and impose more pain to financial markets as the holiday season approaches.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

Gold and Silver Believed To Be Close to Major Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

On the 1-year chart for gold shown below, we can see precisely why it has been in a quite severe downtrend from its peak last March. It is because the dollar and interest rates, shown at the top and bottom of the chart, have been in strong uptrends during this period.

A very important point to note is that while gold has dropped about $400 from its March peak, in real terms, this decline is much more serious because of the robust inflation during this period.

So if the Fed does pivot soon, that is to say, it stops raising rates and starts lowering them, or other Central Banks start raising rates, thus reducing the dollar’s appeal.

It will mean a reversal to the downside in the dollar and to the upside in gold and commodities and risk-on assets generally, and as we saw on Friday 21st, even talk of a pivot is enough to generate a recovery.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

Why Gold’s Losing Streak May Soon Turn Around / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The gold market enters trading for the month of November on a losing streak. Can bulls finally turn things around?

Their first test will be to defend the line of support established from the September and October lows. Although the gold market registered a seventh consecutive monthly decline in October – marking its worst string of monthly losses in 50 years – daily prices didn't actually break down to new lows for the year.

Despite another losing month, downside selling pressure appears to be fizzling out. Gold prices have been consolidating within a narrowing range over the past several weeks and have even popped above the downtrend line today (November 1).

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Commodities

Monday, October 31, 2022

Could a Red Wave Cool Off the Retail Bullion Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Americans will vote in the midterm elections next Tuesday. The latest polling suggests that a “red wave” is building, and Republicans may win the majority both in the House and the Senate. The election results will have implications for all markets – and that includes precious metals.

Mass psychology is one factor. Confidence in U.S. institutions has been in decline for several decades. However, when we see a marginal restoration of confidence, it can impact physical market demand for bullion.

Accordingly, should Republicans win big next week, red-hot bullion demand could cool off for a period of time.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been battered over this past half-year, bludgeoned relentlessly lower with gold.  Heavy gold-futures selling fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in a mania has slammed the yellow metal.  Gold’s normal seasonal trends have been overpowered by speculators’ leveraged gold-futures dumping.  But with their selling capital firepower exhausted, gold’s usual winter rally should roar back.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Is $600 Gold Price Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD PRICE DECLINE – $600 POSSIBLE?

Over the past couple of months, since the posting of my article Gold Charts – $1450 the price of gold has done nothing to indicate a change in direction or reversal of any consequence.

Below is the latest chart (source) of physical gold prices showing monthly average closing prices since the peak in July 2020…

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Commodities

Saturday, October 22, 2022

Euphoric US Dollar Vexing Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The euphoric US dollar’s epic parabolic surge over this past half-year continues to sorely vex gold.  The dollar’s vertical march to extreme secular highs spawned heavy gold-futures selling, slamming gold.  The resulting lower gold prices have scared away investors, leaving gold languishing near deep lows despite an inflation super-spike raging.  This fundamentally-absurd market anomaly can’t last, and is overdue to reverse.

Gold is behaving terribly this year, plunging 17.9% between mid-April to late September!  That has left even hardened contrarian traders disheartened, increasingly wondering if gold is dead.  Speculators and investors alike want nothing to do with history’s ultimate inflation hedge, even with headline Consumer-Price-Index inflation averaging stunning 8.5% year-over-year gains over the last six months.  Gold looks broken.

While gold was being slammed lower by relentless gold-futures dumping, the CPI peaked in June at a cycle high up 9.1% YoY.  That proved its hottest read since way back in November 1981!  So we are literally suffering through a brutal inflation super-spike today, the first since the 1970s.  The Fed’s extreme money printing after March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic has come home to roost, driving up prices.

Gold skyrocketed during those 1970s inflation super-spikes, as it should.  The first was born in June 1972 at a CPI trough up 2.7% YoY, then peaked 30 months later in December 1974 with the CPI soaring 12.3% YoY.  The monthly-average gold prices during that span soared 196.6% higher!  Gold’s supply growth is heavily constrained by mining limitations, so it is bid way up during times of serious currency debasement.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 15, 2022

The Fed’s Challenge and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As the economic slowdown deepens, the Fed’s challenges grow larger. It increases the risk of policy mistakes that could benefit gold.

Inflation Is Still a Challenge


It was a tough year for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank’s inflation forecasts were embarrassing. In December 2021, it projected the PCEPI inflation rate at 2.6%, while it soared to 6.8% through June. The Fed disclosed $300 billion in unrealized losses on its assets as of the end of March, showing the negative impact of rising interest rates on the market value of the Fed’s balance sheet (that likely only intensified since Q1). There was a trading scandal with two top officials resigning.
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Commodities

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

How Will the New CPI Data Affect the Gold Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Fresh inflation data is to be released tomorrow. While it may trigger daily fluctuations, the precious metals’ medium-term fundamentals remain bearish.

Stuck in Reverse

While risk assets attempted a daily rally on Oct. 11, Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey spoiled the party with his hawkish warning to U.K. pension funds. After restarting QE to curb the rapid rise in U.K. interest rates, he said:

“My message to the funds involved and all the firms is you’ve got three days left now. You’ve got to get this done. The essence of financial stability is that [intervention] is temporary. It’s not prolonged.”

Thus, while gold bucked the trend, it was another down day for silver, mining stocks and the S&P 500. Furthermore, with Fed officials undeterred by the financial market volatility, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Oct. 11:

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Commodities

Monday, October 10, 2022

Gold Is Below $1,700 Again. Will It Repeat Its Fall to $1400? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The current situation of gold and its behavior in 2013 share many bearish analogies. Is the yellow metal only halfway through its massive collapse?

A Decade Ago

After we posted last week’s gold price forecast, gold, silver, and mining stocks declined in tune with the analysis. Is the rally over?

Let’s start by taking a closer look at gold.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 08, 2022

Silver – Dead In The Water for 40 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

SILVER IS DEAD IN THE WATER…

…and cheap; it’s a bargain! Buy it now before it goes to – $500? Seriously? One thing for sure; silver is cheaper now than it was the last time we heard such exuberant (irrational?) calls for action.

In fact, the lower the silver price goes, the more fervent are the claims and projections for ever higher and seemingly ridiculous prices. After more than forty years of calls for $100 silver (see $100 Silver – Nothing Has Changed) now we are being treated to fantasy projections of $500 oz.

Coupled with the price prediction of $500 for silver is a prediction for a crash in the U.S. dollar – by 2023.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 02, 2022

The Queen Died, but King Dollar Lives On / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Queen Elizabeth II died, but King Dollar is the strongest in decades. Gold doesn’t like it.

To say that gold has been struggling this year is an understatement. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal declined from above $2,000 to below $1,700 (as of September 20). That slide occurred during the highest inflation since the great stagflation of the 1970s.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 02, 2022

Why Gold? Why now? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Richard_Mills

Why should investors even consider taking a position in a gold junior, given gold’s lackluster performance so far this year?

Having scaled 2021 peaks of $1,865 an ounce in November, and $1,903 in June, the gold price burst onto 2022 @ $1,800. By Jan. 19 it was at $1,840. Since then, the precious metal has come under intense selling pressure. A combination of rising government bond yields and a soaring US dollar index are the main bearish elements driving gold (and silver) south. Spot gold year to date is down $124, or 8.4%.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 01, 2022

Gold – A Case Of Unrealistic Expectations / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD – WHAT DID YOU EXPECT?

Question No. 1. What’s wrong with gold?

Question No.  2. Inflation is roaring and gold is dropping in price. Since gold is an inflation hedge, why isn’t its price going up?

If you need to ask either or both of those questions, then you are likely suffering from a case of unrealistic expectations involving gold and its price behavior.

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Commodities

Monday, September 26, 2022

Gold Waved the White Flag and Began Its Great Decline / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As predicted, the dollar grows stronger while gold goes in the opposite direction. Can we expect a temporary correction next?

It’s happening! The massive upswing in the USD Index and the slide in the precious metals market are here.     

Just like you knew in advance. I’m receiving multiple messages where you’re sharing your gratitude with me, and I’m extremely happy that you’re enjoying the results that you were able to get thanks to my help.

All right, what’s next?

First of all, I would like you to keep perspective.

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Commodities

Friday, September 23, 2022

All Gold and Quiet on the Eastern Front / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The war in Ukraine has entered its seventh month and some people believe that China is gearing up for a war with Taiwan. Will bulls invade the gold market?

In August, half a year had passed since the beginning of the war in Eastern Europe. Ukraine defended its independence but lost 13% of its territory. The six months of war between Europe’s two largest nations have brought death and suffering on a mass scale. More than 13 million people have been displaced, and nearly 7 million refugees have dispersed across Europe. Ukraine’s economy collapsed while the prices of food and energy have soared.

What is the situation on the front? Unfortunately, the aggressor’s troops maintain a relatively stable land connection with Crimea and are slowly pushing the Ukrainian army from its positions in Donbas, the main area of combat. It means that taking control of the rest of the Donetsk Oblast by the Russians is probably a matter of time, although it may take several more months. The change in favor of the Ukrainians is possible only if the West significantly increases its military supplies, which would enable an effective Ukrainian counter-offensive. It’s true that the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the direction of Kherson in the south of the country is gaining momentum – in particular thanks to the supplies of HIMARS – but a full scale operation is unlikely due to a lack of manpower and weapons.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Will Gold Survive Another Jumbo Rate Hike? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The key FOMC meeting ends soon. One thing is certain: after this event, the gold market won’t be the same.

The Fed’s Projection Will Be Key for Gold

Ladies and gentlemen, please take your seat and fasten your seat belt, as we’re approaching the FOMC meeting and there could be some turbulence! Actually, gold has already entered an area of turbulence and has declined below the psychologically important level of $1,700. As the chart below shows, the price of the yellow metal has declined from $1,726 last week to the current level of $1,664, in a response to the strengthened expectations of a more hawkish Fed.
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Commodities

Monday, September 19, 2022

Gold Bleeding, Seasonal Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has sure been a four-letter word lately, suffering one of its worst bull summers.  The primary culprit was heavy gold-futures selling on a parabolic US-dollar surge fueled by extreme Fed hawkishness.  But the resulting gold technical damage really disheartened investors, spawning additional relentless selling from them.  This investment bleeding has certainly exacerbated gold’s downside, but its days are numbered.

With inflation raging in its biggest super-spike since the 1970s, gold should be soaring today.  Instead it has been bludgeoned 14.3% lower between mid-April to late July, defying long precedent.  And at the mid-week data cutoff for this essay, gold had again been pummeled right back to those deep summer lows.  Technically gold looks pretty broken, which has whipped up bearish sentiment to suffocating extremes.

Gold was trading near $1,977 in mid-April just before the US Dollar Index started rocketing vertically.  In the past five months starting then, US headline CPI inflation has run red-hot blasting up 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5%, and 8.3% year-over-year!  That high-water June print was the worst witnessed since way back in November 1981, a 40.6-year high!  It’s hard to imagine a more-irrational backdrop for a major gold selloff.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

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Commodities

Friday, September 16, 2022

Inflation Is Hotter Than Expected, Gold Price Colder Than Hoped / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The annual CPI decelerated in August but came in higher than expected. Bets on a more hawkish Fed increased, while in the case of gold, they decreased.

Inflation stayed hot in August. Unbelievable! At least for the majority of pundits who expected softer inflation. However, I’m not surprised, as I’ve repeated many times that “inflation is likely to stay elevated for some time.” But let’s stop bragging – and start digging into the recent CPI report.

The CPI increased 0.1% in August after being flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It doesn’t seem to be a huge increase, but let’s note that it occurred despite a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. Without plunging gas prices, inflation would be much higher because of the broad-based monthly item increase.
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Commodities

Friday, September 09, 2022

Futures Still Dogging Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold continues to languish near major lows after a rough summer, deeply out of favor with traders.  Oddly this leading alternative investment seems oblivious to the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s.  That should be driving big gold demand, fueling a major upleg.  But that classic inflationary response has been temporarily delayed by heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling.  When that reverses to buying, gold will soar.

As everyone running a household or business knows, inflation is raging out of control.  Not even lowballed government statistics can hide it.  The monthly US Consumer Price Index has averaged blistering 8.3% year-over-year gains so far in 2022!  That’s 4.6x 2019’s +1.8%-YoY monthly average, the last normal year before the pandemic-lockdown stock panic and its extensive aftermath.  This June, the CPI soared 9.1% YoY.

That proved its hottest print since way back in November 1981, a staggering 40.6-year high!  That’s despite today’s CPI being way watered-down compared to the 1970s one, extensively understating real inflation.  Americans sure wish prices were only climbing 9%ish annually, but the grim reality out there is at least double to triple that.  With such extreme inflation, gold should be soaring on huge investment demand.

Gold skyrocketed during the last similar inflation super-spikes in the 1970s.  In the first the CPI blasted from +2.7% YoY to +12.3% over 30 months into December 1974.  Gold’s monthly-average prices from trough to peak CPI months launched 196.6% higher!  During the second the CPI exploded from +4.9% YoY to +14.8% in 40 months climaxing in March 1980.  Gold’s monthly-average prices were a moonshot, up 322.4%!

If today’s CPI still used its far-more-honest 1970s methodology, headline inflation would be about double reported levels.  Gold’s stunning disconnect from today’s raging inflation is troubling, leaving the great majority of traders forgetting about that 1970s precedent.  After suffering one of its worst summers in modern bull-market years, gold has largely been left-for-dead.  Instead of flocking back, investors are fleeing.

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