Category: Gold and Silver 2022
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, June 15, 2022
The Gold Market Is Getting Ready for Another Interest Rate Hike / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
As predicted, gold stocks are gradually declining. Their situation is unlikely to improve - the Fed is already planning another interest rate hike.
After yesterday’s huge slide in the PMs (GDXJ declined by over 8%!) and a sizable increase in our short positions in junior miners, gold and silver are moving back and forth, gathering strength for the next move. Or waiting for the next trigger.
They are likely to get it tomorrow (Wednesday, June 15), as the Fed is about to make another interest rate decision. The word got out yesterday that the Fed might hike interest rates by 0.75% instead of just 0.5%, and the markets reacted accordingly. Stocks and PMs fell, while the USD Index rallied.
The best part is that you knew about the bigger rate hike before almost everyone else – I wrote about that in the extra analysis that I posted/sent out on Saturday. Quoting:
The next interest rate decision is this Wednesday, and it’s probably going to be very interesting. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a rate hike by more than 0.5% - for example by 0.75%. This might be enough to send a message to the market that they are serious about the inflation and have positive political implications. Whether that happens or not, the following conference will likely aim to rebuild investors’ confidence in the Fed. It might or might not work with regard to confidence, but it should be enough to trigger declines in the markets (including PMs) – after all that’s how hawkish surprises work.
Saturday, June 11, 2022
Big Inflation Will Spur Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold investment demand should be soaring with serious inflation raging, catapulting gold way higher. Yet recently it has greatly lagged fast-rising general price levels, confounding contrarian investors. But history argues this anomaly won’t last, that eventually big inflation will spur gold. Today’s terrible inflation super-spike fueled by extreme Fed money printing is the first since the 1970s, when gold rocketed up by multiples.
The most-widely-followed US inflation gauge is the Consumer Price Index. While its components and calculation methodologies have been changed countless times, the CPI’s history extends back well over a century to 1913! For an entire decade prior to April 2021, the monthly headline CPI averaged modest 1.7% year-over-year gains. That long span didn’t see a single 4%+ print, even with pandemic-lockdown disruptions.
But something changed in April 2021, when the CPI suddenly accelerated up 4.2% YoY. That proved its hottest read since September 2008, emerging from that year’s brutal stock panic. The Fed itself blamed that mounting inflation on supply-chain disruptions. The Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary-policy statement released late that month argued “Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”
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Monday, June 06, 2022
Understanding Profit Potential In Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
An analysis of any profit potential in gold requires an understanding of gold and its fundamentals. The problem is that most folks do not understand gold or its fundamentals.“Most folks” includes investors, traders, speculators, advisors, analysts, marketers, etc.
THERE IS ONLY ONE GOLD FUNDAMENTAL
The single fundamental for gold is that gold is real money. PERIOD. Gold’s value is in its use as money.
Whereas gold is real money, the US dollar and all paper currencies are substitutes for real money, i.e., gold.
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Thursday, June 02, 2022
Where Is Gold Price Going From Here? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After briefly reaching highs above $2000, Gold has fallen to $1785 (-14%) following the deep selling in the US major indexes throughout most of April & May 2022.
Interpretation Of The Current Consolidation In Gold
My team and I see the recent lows in Gold as similar to the April/May 2009 consolidation after the Global Financial Crisis. Also similar to the January 2013 consolidation before an extended -34% price decline took place – ending in December 2015.
The primary difference between now and then is that the US Federal Reserve is currently initiating a new round of Quantitative Tightening (QT), raising rates, while battling Inflation. In both the previous examples, the US Federal Reserve was moving aggressively into Quantitative Easing, attempting to aid in the recovery of the US & the global economy.
It seems to me, that the underlying factors driving the price of Gold have drastically changed. All it would take for Gold to break into a new trend, up or down, would be to see some new catalyst or contagion event come to life.
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Thursday, May 12, 2022
The War on Gold Ensures the Dollar’s Downfall / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
By Matthew Cortez, Last month was the 89th anniversary of one of America’s biggest blunders on her descent from honest, sound money into weaponized political money: Executive Order 6102.Signed on April 5, 1933, U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt required all persons holding more than five ounces of gold to deliver their “gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates, now owned by them to a Federal Reserve Bank, branch or agency, or to any member bank of the Federal Reserve System.”
By outlawing the so-called “hoarding” of gold, Roosevelt intended to destroy gold as an everyday currency, transferring the purchasing power of gold to the U.S. government.
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Wednesday, May 11, 2022
INFLATION IS KILLING SILVER / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
More than just a few people are buying silver because “it protects them from inflation” – or something to that effect. Ever wonder if that argument holds up? The chart (source) below indicates otherwise…
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Tuesday, May 10, 2022
The Future of the Dollar Seems So Bright It’s Blinding Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the USDX rushes up without looking back, gold is running... out of power. What could the next dollar highs mean for the precious metals market?
In short, practically everything that I wrote in yesterday’s analysis remains up-to-date. Based on the relative valuations and pre-market price movement, I wrote that junior miners were likely to decline below their rising support line, and I moved the exit price for the current short position in the GDXJ lower (it seems that it will gain even more shortly).
Indeed, the GDXJ fell like a stone in the water, and it pierced through the above-mentioned support line without looking back. Thanks to remaining in the short position, we were able to benefit from the breakdown below the support line.
Saturday, May 07, 2022
Gold and Silver Outperform Stocks and Bonds during Stagflation / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
As turmoil in financial markets unnerves investors, a larger economic crisis may be starting to unfold.
The Federal Reserve’s first steps toward tightening monetary policy are exposing vulnerabilities in the highly leveraged economy. The Fed spent years injecting the economy with artificial stimulus. Now it is trying to take that stimulus away without causing a crash.
On Wednesday, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. That was the central bank’s biggest hike in 22 years.
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Monday, May 02, 2022
Gold is following a logical path in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
Reference this article posted on 12.30.21: 2022: The Golden Year
Gold has done nothing unusual and in fact it has done as would normally be expected. In February it began to rally out of the base on the daily (futures) chart below. Driven by war (easy on the war, terror and pestilence bull rationales dear gold bugs) and inflation hype, kneejerkers and momos (momentum players) quickly jumped on pushing gold to an overbought high on March 8. The resulting correction is normal and it is healthy. Momos are not allowed to participate in a real gold bull (at least not until later when the bull is obviously blowing off).
As you can see on the chart, gold found support at the first projected level (this chart was used in an NFTRH update on Wednesday) to possibly contain the downside. However, as also noted in the update, better support is below at and around 1834 and the 200 day moving average. Still below short-term resistance, that lower support is still well in play at this time.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Following Twitter, Elon Musk May Next Want to Acquire Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
Elon Musk’s $44 billion purchase of Twitter is being hailed as a victory for free speech. Musk vows to make changes to the social media platform that will make it a true “digital town square” where people are free to speak their minds, even if others take offense.
Of course, not everyone is excited about the prospect.
“Biden officials worry Musk will allow Trump to return to Twitter,” CNBC informs us.
Musk, meanwhile, is worried that the Biden administration may launch retaliatory attacks by securities regulators. He is also concerned by government policies that are stoking inflation.
Wednesday, April 20, 2022
If Gold Read the Tea Leaves, It Would See the Shape of a Bear / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Despite increased war tensions, gold failed to break above $2,000. What’s worse, rising USDX and interest rates are already lurking on the horizon.
The precious metals just performed exactly as they were likely to. Despite the increase in war tensions, PMs and miners reversed instead of rallying, which indicated that the rally has probably run its course. Since the tensions can now (most likely) either decline or stabilize, gold and silver prices will presumably fall right away, or after a while, as the market starts paying attention to gold’s two key fundamental drivers:
- the USD Index
- the real interest rates.
Both are inversely correlated with the price of gold, and both are on the rise. It’s therefore most likely only a matter of time before gold declines, and the same goes for silver and mining stocks. In fact, silver and mining stocks are likely to fall harder than gold, as they’ve been very weak in recent years anyway. Let’s not forget that while gold moved above its 2011 highs, silver and miners are well below the 50% retracement from their respective 2011 highs.
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Monday, April 18, 2022
Gold Gains In Price Only – Not In Value / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD GAINS IN PRICE ONLY
It has been said that the more things change, the more they remain the same. That is certainly true of gold prices.
Let’s look at the following three charts in succession. Then we’ll talk about them…
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Saturday, April 16, 2022
Beating Inflation: Are The Fed’s Dreams Gold’s Worst Nightmare? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While investors remain happy-go-lucky, fundamental data for gold and silver is now worse than in 2021. Is this the last chance to come back to earth?
As another week comes to a close, the winds of change are blowing across the financial markets. However, while many investors and analysts can see only sunny days ahead, fundamental storm clouds should rain on their parade over the medium term, and it’s quite possible that it’s going to happen shortly.
To explain, this week culminated with the USD Index soaring above 100, the U.S. 10-Year real yield hitting a new 2022 high, and Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) hitting its highest level since the global financial crisis (GFC). However, the PMs paid no mind yet. In fact, investors across many asset classes continue to ignore the implications of these developments. So far.
Sunday, April 10, 2022
6 Things You Need To Know Before Investing In Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Steve_Barker
Investing in gold is a smart investment. But why? Gold has been valued for centuries and for good reason! It's rare, durable, and can be used to make jewelry or electronics. Plus, it's not affected by inflation so no matter what happens with the economy it'll always have some value. But before you invest in gold there are a few things you need to know - what type of gold should you buy? How do you store your gold? What if the economy takes another downturn? Learn more here!
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Wednesday, April 06, 2022
Gold Begins to Wobble. Is It a Sign of a Greater Fall? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold is still running on the war-fumes, but its last moves bring to mind only bearish associations. Worse yet, a rising dollar appeared on the horizon.
On the technical front, we saw that the junior mining stocks moved higher in the first part of the session, but then declined and ended the day practically unchanged.
Wednesday, April 06, 2022
Waiting For GLD To Make New Highs – Gold Rally Is Still Intact / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The calm of the last 3-weeks has resulted in a risk-on environment. This, in turn, has led to a nice recovery rally in stocks. For the time being, volatility has subsided. However, we believe there are many underlying market risks that can still resurface without any warning.
From late 2015 to August 2020, the price of gold doubled, going from approximately $1040 to $2080. Gold then experienced a profit-taking $400 pullback. Gold’s rally over the past 12-months failed to break through its $2080 price level. After retreating back to $200, gold seems to have found support at the $1900 level.
In reviewing the following spot gold chart, it appears we have broken out of an accumulation phase and seem to be preparing to move above the $2080 high.
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Tuesday, April 05, 2022
Problem With Predictions For $20K Gold Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
PREDICTIONS FOR $20K GOLD
Gold at $20,000 is the latest price prediction from a high profile analyst. The article I read makes a strong case for how the gold price could go to $20,000 oz. if the US dollar loses ninety percent of its current value.
That part of the explanation is correct. And it is what I have been saying in my articles over and over again; namely, a higher gold price reflects the loss in purchasing power of the US dollar that has already occurred – nothing more, nothing else.
Since the origin (1913) of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has lost ninety-nine percent of its purchasing power. It takes one hundred dollars today to buy a similar amount of goods and services compared to what one dollar would buy a century ago.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Silver Mining Stocks Q4’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
The silver miners’ stocks have rallied in recent months, but are still underperforming gold stocks. Silver lagging gold is mostly responsible, driven by big stock-market down days dampening enthusiasm for speculation. But silver will ultimately mirror and amplify gold’s bull upleg, fueling strong leveraged gains in its miners’ stocks. Their just-finishing Q4’21 earnings season reveals they are faring well fundamentally.
With the subsequent Q1’22 ended, looking at the prior quarter’s operational and financial reports seems dated. But because most companies run on calendar years, the Q4 reporting deadlines are extended. In the US companies don’t have to report full-year 10-K results until 60 days after quarter-ends, compared to 40 days for 10-Q quarterlies. In Canada, the epicenter of the silver-mining universe, year-ends extend to 90 days!
Since many of the major silver miners have primary stock listings in that Great White North, late March is about the earliest enough of them have reported to analyze their collective Q4 results. Soon after each quarterly earnings season, I dig into the latest reports from the top-15 component companies of the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF. Despite just $1.1b in net assets, SIL remains the leading ETF in this small sector.
SIL’s lackluster performance recently reflects the ongoing apathy plaguing silver stocks. Between late January to early March, SIL rallied a solid 18.3%. But that proved poor relatively, since silver marched 17.7% higher in roughly that same span. If silver miners’ stocks can’t leverage their metal’s upside, they aren’t worth the sizable additional risks they bear compared to silver. They must double to triple silver’s gains.
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Sunday, April 03, 2022
Gold At $2000 Or $600? No Difference / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
GOLD AT $2000
Gold flirted briefly with the $2000 number last month. At $2043 oz., it was several dollars shy from matching its peak price eighteen months earlier at $2058 oz.
With the current gold price at $1958 oz., the $2000 number is the sweet midpoint of that range. It is a nice round number and seems to be the price most gold traders and investors are focusing on at this time.
It is probably a good idea, therefore, to see if the $2k gold price holds any special significance other than what most in the gold community are thinking about.
And it does.
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Friday, April 01, 2022
4 Scenarios for BIG Moves in Precious Metals Markets / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: MoneyMetals
World events are driving a volatile and potentially pivotal environment ahead for investors. Huge swings in financial markets are likely still to come.
Direction, magnitude, and timing are difficult to predict. But precious metals bulls are eying massive upside potential for gold and silver as war and inflation stoke safe-haven buying.
What follows are four major macro scenarios that could impact metals markets in a big way in the months ahead.