Category: Financial Markets 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, May 11, 2019
US Increases Trade Tariffs Against China – Stock Markets, Gold, and Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today, the US increased tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods as the US/China trade deal breaks down. China has vowed to retaliate for the move. The past week has seen the global markets shocked by two items: Iran sanctions and US/China trade breakdown. The markets had been expecting a US/China trade deal to be reached and optimism was quite high – hence the rally in the Chinese stock market and the rally in the US stock market. What next?
Well, we believe this news, as well as future news that will likely hit the markets over the next 3+ months, will continue to prompt the Shake-Out we have been warning about. Depending on how severe these news events are, the rotation in the markets could be quite severe as well.
Our recent analysis suggests that recent lows in the US stock market may be near-term support and that the US stock market may attempt to form a bottom near these lows. Our research shows the Transportation Index is leading this move. We believe the ORANGE Moving Average level, as well as the RED and GREY Fibonacci projection points, will act as a temporary price floor this week and next. The YM could move lower by 100 to 200 points today, retesting these low levels, before recovering near the end of the day.
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Thursday, May 09, 2019
Trade Negotiation in Jeopardy After China Reneged its Commitment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
Summary
- The odds of trade war escalation rises after Trump sent a pair of tweets threatening to increase tariffs to Chinese goods.
- If there is no deal by this Friday, the tariffs to Chinese goods will rise to 25% from 10% on $300 billion. Additional $325 billion of Chinese goods will also get 25% tariff.
- The rapid deterioration is due to the reversal of China’s commitment to address the U.S. core complaints.
- U.S companies with huge presence and sales in China, like Apple, can suffer if there’s trade war escalation.
- Elliott Wave Analysis on Apple suggests another major correction can happen.
Tuesday, May 07, 2019
Stocks, Oil, Gold: Inflation-Adjusted Returns / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
In late 1999, the hyper-bullish technology stock sector was nearing the end of its nearly decade-long run to unsupportable and overly optimistic highs. At the center of the hype and fascination were new companies, headed by twenty-something geniuses. They were referred to as startups.
The multiples of earnings that normally applied in order to assess value of these companies was thrown aside. That is because most of them did not have any earnings.
Nevertheless, they were attractive enough to garner huge crowds of support. Just the hint of a revolutionary idea could boost an unknown small private company into the spotlight of the new issue market with over subscription being commonplace.
Technology stocks collapsed in 2000, and were eventually joined by the broader stock market which began a two-year descent that saw the S&P 500 lose fifty percent of its value.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
MAY Analysis - Stock Market, Machine Intelligence Stocks, House Prices and Gold & Silver / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a head up for planned analysis for MAY 2019 that will first be made available to Patrons who support my work. I aim to post at least 4 pieces of analysis as was the case for April. Primary analysis to include an update to the stock market trend forecast i.e. any deviation from trend, a look at Gold and / or Silver, more stocks to invest to profit from the machine intelligence mega-trend as well as reaping individual personal benefits i.e. in terms of longevity. As well as continuing in-depth analysis in my series seeking to conclude towards a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices.
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Friday, May 03, 2019
US Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged – The Shake-Out Begins / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The US Federal Reserve announced today they are leaving rates unchanged based on their latest meeting. The markets should take this as a sign of relief. Yet, hear all-time highs and expecting the Fed may actually decrease rates a bit, the market reacted with quiet price rotation near these highs.
The US Fed could have shaken up the markets even more, but we believe this move by the Fed will be interpreted as “Fed Uneasiness” with regards to the overall US and global economy at the moment. A failure to prompt a rate increase could be seen as weakness by the Fed and uneasiness over the fragility of the US and Global economies. Once this shake-out settles, the markets will go back to doing what the markets always do – interpreting future fair values.
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Thursday, April 04, 2019
Why Are The Markets Ignoring The US Treasury Yield Curve Inversion? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research continues to support a Bullish price bias over the next 30+ days, very likely reaching to new all-time highs again, before June/July 2019. For many months, other researchers have continued to predict “doom and gloom” with warnings of Treasury yield inversions, global collapse events, and other crisis events. Yes, we believe continued price rotation will drive future price swings and they could be volatile moves – yet we believe any crisis event will actually become an incredible opportunity for long traders to BUY into the markets at extreme lows.
Recently, our researchers focused on OIL and the Transportation Index as key elements suggesting this upside move is far from over. Oil has moved from below $55 ppb to well above $60 ppb. We believe this move will continue higher to target the $64 ppb level were resistance is likely to be found. We do believe that some price rotation in Oil is likely to happen in the Summer months – when travel increases and Summer blend gas hits the markets. Winter has been uniquely difficult this year and the rise in Oil prices, where OPEC and foreign market events have attempted to push prices above $50 ppb, is warranted given global economic activities.
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Wednesday, March 27, 2019
March Analysis Update - UK House Prices and Machine Intelligence Stocks Investing / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Here's a quick heads up on what I am currently working on. I aim to complete two further pieces of analysis before the end of March that will first be made available to Patrons who support me work.
Firstly a continuation of my UK house prices series of analysis, with my fifth piece seeing if house building says anything different to my preceding analysis that continues to paint a bullish picture for UK house prices for many years.
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Sunday, March 24, 2019
Yield Curves, 2yr Yield, SPX Stocks and a Crack Up Boom? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues…
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Friday, March 22, 2019
Fed Acknowledges “Recession Risks”. Run for the Hills! / Forecasts / Financial Markets 2019
By: Troy_Bombardia
Today’s biggest news was that the Fed predicts no more rate hikes this year. Given that we are extremely late in this economic expansion cycle, this probably means that the Fed is also done hiking rates for this economic expansion cycle.
Of course, the news outlets and social media took this as “the Fed now acknowledges ‘recession risks’, so it’s time to run for the hills!”
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Tuesday, March 19, 2019
FREE Access to Stock and Finanacial Markets Trading Analysis Worth $1229! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: EWI
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Friday, March 15, 2019
Deflationary Assets are Outperforming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Donald_W_Dony
During the current bull market, deflationary assets (industrials, technology, financials, communication, consumer discretionary and real estate) have greatly outperformed inflationary assets (commodities) for most of these past 10 years.
Martin Pring's Deflation/Inflation Index (Chart 1) illustrates that deflationary assets have largely outperformed inflationary assets from late 2011 to the beginning of 2016 and again from mid-2018 to the present.
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Gold and Stocks Bear Market Rallies: The Nascent Narcotic / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Sector expert Michael Ballanger reflects on the implications of recent market moves. The 2018-2019 bear market rally that we identified during the last week of 2018 via the 2019 Forecast Issue, entitled "2019: Mayhem, Misallocation and the Mockery of True Price Discovery," is now on record as one of the most ferocious rallies ever recorded, as short sellers are being carried out on stretchers and in body bags left, right and center. The youngsters out there who think their new and highly sophisticated analytical software will guide them through this minefield of intervention and deceit have obviously forgotten (or conveniently ignored) the immortal phrase from the lips of the legendary Marty Zweig, "Don't fight the tape and don't fight the Fed."
Earlier this month, I did fight the tape and the Fed by shorting the S&P 500 slightly beneath the 200-dma (daily moving average) at 2,738, placing the stop-loss at a 2-day close over 2,755. This resulted in a modest haircut of 23 S&P points and an ample serving of humility. I now have Marty's picture up on my wall right above the monitor to remind me that only in free markets can you use the old tools from preintervention eras.
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Wednesday, February 06, 2019
Higher Interest Rates & Market Risks Require Active, Careful Investment Management / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Coming up Axel Merk of Merk Investments joins me for a terrific conversation about gold, the Fed, stocks and the dollar. And find out why he believes investors will soon realize that it DOES matter again about where you put your money. Don’t miss my interview with Axel Merk, coming up after this week’s market update.
Gold and silver markets closed out the month of January on a high note as the Federal Reserve signaled it would back off on further rate hikes.
On Wednesday, Fed policymakers voted unanimously to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fed chairman Jerome Powell cited recent weakness in economic growth forecasts.
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Tuesday, February 05, 2019
A Crash is Coming - Bonds Yields, Oil and Credit Are Rolling Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s cut through the nonsense.
The only reason that stocks are rallying is because investors are hoping the Fed has reinstated its policy of inflating stocks…
However, HOPE is very different from reality. And the Fed hinting at halting its rate hikes and possibly altering the schedule of QT is VERY different from cutting rates and engaging in QE.
Put simply, a Fed that says it might be less hawkish is not a dovish Fed. And the markets know it, though stocks always “get it last.”
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Monday, February 04, 2019
Is The Stock Market Manic? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX challenged Long-term support at 16.39, closing beneath it on Friday. Primary Cycle [C] has been delayed another week. While investors are heaving a sigh of relief, the Wave structure and Cycles suggest a strong reversal may be imminent.
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Sunday, January 27, 2019
Will Liquidity Prevail In The Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX challenged Short-term resistance at 21.77 on Tuesday, but eased back toward long-term support at 16.51 at the close on Friday. The Primary Cycle [C] that may have just started may be a multiple of the Primary Wave [C] of February 2018.
(RealInvestmentAdvice) All Quiet on the Western Front is a 1929 novel which describes German soldiers’ extreme physical and mental stress during World War I, and subsequent detachment from civilian life felt by many soldiers upon returning home. This novel was eventually made into a major motion picture.
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Thursday, January 24, 2019
These Are the 3 Biggest Market Risks in 2019 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: John_Mauldin
A Federal Reserve policy mistake is our top risk this year.
Correction: The mistake is already happening. So that’s less a forecast and more a recognition of reality.
The Fed is raising rates and reversing its quantitative easing. At the same time! They should be doing one or the other, not both.
The media and investors focus on the rates. But as you’ll learn, the global balance sheet reduction may be even more harmful.
If Jerome Powell doesn’t realize this in early 2019—or the rest of the FOMC disagrees with him—2019 could get rocky, and very quickly.
Friday, January 18, 2019
SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Leaving aside our usual inclusion of macro fundamentals and market ratios, today let’s take a simple technical look at the S&P 500 and gold.
As the US stock market was becoming deeply oversold (and over-hated, sentiment-wise) in December we planned for a holiday seasonal bounce, which finally arrived with the immediate reversal after the Christmas Eve massacre when the machines (and a few human casino patrons) drove it to its downside climax. The bounce was almost a certainty, given the sentiment backdrop of the moment.
Our (NFTRH) view however, has been for an eventual decline from a significant momentum divergence (MACD & RSI) to the obvious support of 2100-2200 (which is also the rough measurement from the bearish pattern) on SPX per this weekly chart. The current market bounce was expected and necessary to rebuild the conditions for enough downside to meet our target.
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Tuesday, January 15, 2019
2018-2019 Pop Goes The Debt Bubble / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
Fiat paper money: Once gold and silver derivatives
Today, instruments of debt issued by central banks
After the 2008 financial crisis, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke invoked Milton Friedman’s theory that a helicopter drop of money could prevent a collapsing credit bubble from becoming a Great Depression.
When credit bubbles burst, defaulting debt and disappearing demand cause the velocity of money to plunge; and, in 2008, Bernanke resorted to Friedman’s untested theory hoping to prevent the US economy from collapsing as it did in the 1930s.
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Friday, January 11, 2019
Yield curve suggests that US Recession is near: Trading Setups / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: FXCOT
Investors think recession risk is quite high. This, though, raises another question: Since investors have access to the same news and data as the Fed, how can they know the economy better than the Fed? Economist Jesse Edgerton of J.P. Morgan has found that economic data has a better record of predicting recession than the yield curve and right now, the data sees lower odds than the yield curve. Short-term interest rates are set by the Federal Reserve, and long-term rates by bond market investors. The curve has been flattening for the past two years as the Fed has slowly raised short-term rates in hopes of a “soft landing,” a slowing in growth that keeps both unemployment and inflation low and stable. But in recent months the flattening has been driven by falling bond yields. The usual interpretation: Investors in their collective wisdom think the Fed is overdoing it with rate increases and could shove the economy into recession, in which case short-term rates will be lower in a few years than they are now.