Category: US Bonds
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Monday, July 28, 2008
US Treasury Bonds Remain Range Bound / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market closed the week with slightly higher yields after a rally attempt that fizzled on Friday. With energy trading settling down somewhat – on the crude oil front anyways, the bond market started focusing on other news to drive the trading activity this past week. Earnings season on the stock side made for choppy trading along with continued problems in the financial sector. In spite of more grim news on the earnings front and a list of bankruptcy candidates in the financial sector that is multiple pages long, stocks started the week in relatively decent shape. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
US Treasury Bonds at Risk Under Weight of Debt Moutain / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Alex_Wallenwein
Instead of building its full faith and credit, the United States government is becoming increasingly faith less and is losing credit by the second while sucking individual Americans into ever-greater debt. Yet, against all expectations, Americans seem to be waking up
Wealth cannot be borrowed. For some not-so-unknown reason, Americans seem oblivious of that fact. The reason: they have been conditioned to view debt as ‘money' for decades on end, while TV commercials showed them since childhood that all you need for the good life is a credit card from so-and-so bank – and a golden one, at that.
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Monday, July 21, 2008
US Corporate Bond Sales Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Last week all eyes were on the Short Squeeze In Financials , triggered by a SEC Order To Protect Those Most Responsible For Naked Shorting , and fueled by nearly everyone going ga-ga over fabricated earning reports at Wells Fargo and Citigroup.However, most missed the quiet but extremely important action in the corporate bond market. Please consider Bond Sales Slow to $5.3 Billion as Spreads Approach March Highs
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Monday, July 21, 2008
Bonds Slump as Equities Recovery from the Abyss / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
After extending its gains for a 4th week in a row, the Treasury market pulled back as equities recovered from the abyss. The trend of bonds and energy trading in lock-step remained intact as bonds now sold off as energy prices corrected sharply. There was a recovery in stocks – especially financials during the latter part of the week, so the reverse safe-haven flows pressed bonds lower. The sharp increase in headline inflation also added fuel to the sell-off. Real returns on Treasury bonds are now negative across the entire yield curve, as even 30 year bonds provide a -.35% return after adjusting for inflation. That is great news for spenders and the government (who gets to borrow massive amounts of money at ultra low rates) but not so good for savers. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Long-Term Treasury Bond Market Paradox / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The US Treasury Bond market can be confusing. Price inflation in the United States is intentionally made confusing. That keeps the public ignorant and poorly prepared to interrupt grand larceny and elite control of the printing press, the result of which has been a few decades of hidden confiscation of Middle Class work, wealth, and dreams. Long-term bond yields have many fundamental reasons why they should fall lower in the United States . They are interwoven and integrated. The US Economy is being killed by rising costs, in no way justifying higher borrowing costs. Yet amateurish opinions seem to coalesce in an absurd consensus. The Asian renaissance contributes mightily to both the impoverishment of America and its economic stagnation. Anyone who believes the US and Europe should share a consistent rhyming monetary policy is asleep at the analytic wheel. In the zero-sum game that is currencies, higher prices in the United States come with lower prices in Europe . Refer to marginal incremental movement in prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 06, 2008
US Treasury Bonds Trend Higher Despite Inflation as Economy Continues to Weaken / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market extended its incredible winning streak to 3 weeks in a row! The trend remained intact as bonds continue to strangely trade higher with increasing energy prices. There was no relief for the financial sector as the US stock market started the second half the same way it finished the first half: round the bowl and down the hole… Credit spreads remain under pressure and liquidity is not improving. In spite of crude oil continuing to set new highs week after week, energy stocks are diverging noticeably. The lack of M&A activity even in the sector is just another sign of how severely liquidity has gone missing.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Treasury Bond Investors Mysteriously Prepared to Receive Negative Real Returns / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
It has become apparent to me that investors who continue to place money in the U.S. Treasury market don't have any idea how to protect themselves from inflation or how to achieve a real return on their investments. Even though inflation is running at a multi-decade high (according to official government numbers), we find that these fixed income investors were willing to send the yield on the 10 year note to an historical low of 3.38% on March 19th of this year. As amazing as that sounds in a world of 4+% “official” inflation rates, it was nothing compared to what happened just last month.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
US Treasuries May Be Ending Recovery Rally Phase / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Once again perhaps we can derive a message from the action of the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT), which today failed to climb above yesterday's 6-week recovery high at 92.81 in what I thought would be an extension of the "flight to safety" syndrome in an otherwise treacherous equity market. No such action has taken place thus far this morning.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 30, 2008
US Treasury's Retain Steepening Yield Curve Trend / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market is on a tremendous winning streak: it is up for the second week in a row! Safe haven flows continue to dominate as bonds strangely trade higher in step with increasing energy prices. The financial sector continues to melt away in spectacular fashion as the US stock market looks to be heading for one of its top 10 largest monthly drops ever. Credit spreads remain under pressure and liquidity is not improving. Quarter end window dressing will definitely not help the sectors that have been beaten down at least for the next few days.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Fed to Keep Interest Rates on Hold for Months if Not Years / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market finally showed some signs of life last week after a multi-week annihilation. It was a relatively quiet week in bond land as traders were more preoccupied with ever rising energy prices and ever increasing problems in the financial sector. After many months of deliberations the rating agencies finally got around to downgrading the bond insurers. 2 observations are in order here: 1, don't ever never ever never rely on the rating agencies for advice as they are severely, severely lagging indicators and they have a huge conflict of interest and 2, make sure you have a chuckle and quickly dismiss anyone who is trying to sell you on the idea of efficient markets. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Treasury Market Takes a Pounding, Dropping to New Lows for 2008 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market dropped to new lows for 2008 last week. The drumbeat of inflation concerns just became a little louder not only in the USA but also internationally. Oil and its surrogates keep trucking up to new highs and corn is certainly keeping pace with them. Central Banks are talking tough but until I actually see the Fed raise rates, I remain a skeptic as to how much they are really willing to do in order to reign in the runaway commodity inflation. Although I fully believe in peak oil, I also figure that the ongoing slowdown in the global economy coupled with surprising progress in the alternative energy space will eventually reign in the present energy price problems.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Bernanke's Strategy of Re-flation to Ignite Economic Growth / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mick_Phoenix
Welcome to the Weekly Report. Let me take you on a journey to explain what Ben Bernanke said and why he said it. We look at yields, what they are telling us and why we should listen. Finally we show evidence that the carry trade is crumbling. You will require a hot beverage, peace and quiet and probably a light snack. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
US Treasury Curve Steepening Bet Blows Sky High / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Treasury spreads between the 2 year treasury and the 30 year long bond exploded today. This in and of itself is not unusual. However, the way that it happened today was indeed very unusual.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 09, 2008
Buy Yield Curive Steeping- Buy Short-term Bonds, Sell Long-term, Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market was under pressure most of last week. Then on Friday, with major help from exploding energy prices, the bond market soared as yields across the yield curve dropped significantly. I suppose a pop in the Unemployment Rate from 5% to 5.5% may have helped bonds a little as well. Early in the week our tragic hero Doctor Ben of the Bernanke and Federal Reserve variety told the financial world and anyone else who wanted to listen that the Fed was most certainly done cutting rates and emphatically supports the Treasury's stronger dollar policy. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 02, 2008
Inflation Sends US Treasuries Sharply Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market sold off sharply last week. Ongoing weakness on the economic front is taking a back seat to other issues as the 10 year yield broke through the significant 4% barrier. The inflation chatter we discussed last week continued to stay front and center not only in the US but across the globe also as energy prices remained sky high. A key event last week was the poor interest in the Treasury Note auctions that were conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. Both the 2 Year and the 5 Year auctions were met with lousy domestic interest and more importantly a significantly diminished foreign Central Bank sponsorship.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 26, 2008
Bleak Economic Outlook Positive for Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market was essentially unchanged last week. As discussed in last week's edition, ongoing weakness in the real economy and renewed turmoil in the stock market are providing solid support for bonds. The event that got the most visible market reaction last week was the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The Fed reduced economic growth forecasts for 2008 by about 1% from 1.7 to 0.7%. They kept dreaming about 2.5% growth in 2009. As previously mentioned the market does not yet believe that sluggish or no growth will persist, so the Fed downgrade came as a surprise and severely dampened enthusiasm for the stock market while boosting the appeal of Treasury bonds. Our readers who bought bonds and sold stocks on our recommendation from 2 weeks ago were feeling pretty warm and fuzzy. That trade has a bit more upside left, so do not abandon that ship just as yet.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Bond Market Price Falls Signaling Inflation and Rate Rises Despite Recession / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Energy and food prices continue to rise – even though the consumer price index reflects a “quiet” inflation picture. Housing remains soft, especially single-family home, which showed a decline in the last report – along with lower home prices. The 10-year bond is pushing 4% for the first time this year. Yet stocks continue their trek higher – stopping a couple of times at the 13,000 mark on the Dow (other indexes have cleared recent peaks). With another round of mortgage resets lurking in the future, could the markets be whistling past the proverbial graveyard? The drumbeat of capital-raising by banks continues, yet many are commenting that we are now past the worst in the financial crisis. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 19, 2008
Yield Curve Widening Positive for Long-end Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market was somewhat weaker last week. In spite of mostly supportive fundamental news such as lower than expected inflation data (in the form of the CPI) and new 28 year lows on Consumer Confidence, the bond market appears to be stuck in the mud here. The US Long Bond future has traded in a narrow 3 point range for the better part of the past month and it closed the week pretty much dead smack in the middle of that range. There are a few things lining up that indicate odds are tilting more and more toward higher prices and lower yields going forward. Even if the market continues to trade sideways, it makes some sense to increase exposure to longer maturity product to earn the higher relative yields available in that sector of the bond market. When the stock market runs out of steam on this bounce, it should help bonds trade to higher levels. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 05, 2008
US Bond Market Outlook- Treasuries Cheap Relative to Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The Treasury market was pretty much flat last week. The Fed dutifully lowered rates by 25 basis points to 2% as the market expected on Wednesday. The brave men on the FOMC actually came up short on declaring a neutral bias, but the markets pretended that they were close enough to act as if the financial crisis was just about over. We got the seasonal pressure that we were looking for in bonds again this year. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 02, 2008
Greenspan's Bond Market Conundrum Bites Back / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Adrian_Ash
"...If Washington and the US consumer can't borrow cheap at the long end, then they'll just go to the short end for cheap money instead..."
WHAT'S A CENTRAL BANKER to do?
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