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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, June 02, 2008

Inflation Sends US Treasuries Sharply Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The Treasury market sold off sharply last week. Ongoing weakness on the economic front is taking a back seat to other issues as the 10 year yield broke through the significant 4% barrier. The inflation chatter we discussed last week continued to stay front and center not only in the US but across the globe also as energy prices remained sky high. A key event last week was the poor interest in the Treasury Note auctions that were conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. Both the 2 Year and the 5 Year auctions were met with lousy domestic interest and more importantly a significantly diminished foreign Central Bank sponsorship.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 26, 2008

Bleak Economic Outlook Positive for Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The Treasury market was essentially unchanged last week. As discussed in last week's edition, ongoing weakness in the real economy and renewed turmoil in the stock market are providing solid support for bonds. The event that got the most visible market reaction last week was the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. The Fed reduced economic growth forecasts for 2008 by about 1% from 1.7 to 0.7%. They kept dreaming about 2.5% growth in 2009. As previously mentioned the market does not yet believe that sluggish or no growth will persist, so the Fed downgrade came as a surprise and severely dampened enthusiasm for the stock market while boosting the appeal of Treasury bonds. Our readers who bought bonds and sold stocks on our recommendation from 2 weeks ago were feeling pretty warm and fuzzy. That trade has a bit more upside left, so do not abandon that ship just as yet.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Bond Market Price Falls Signaling Inflation and Rate Rises Despite Recession / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEnergy and food prices continue to rise – even though the consumer price index reflects a “quiet” inflation picture. Housing remains soft, especially single-family home, which showed a decline in the last report – along with lower home prices. The 10-year bond is pushing 4% for the first time this year. Yet stocks continue their trek higher – stopping a couple of times at the 13,000 mark on the Dow (other indexes have cleared recent peaks). With another round of mortgage resets lurking in the future, could the markets be whistling past the proverbial graveyard? The drumbeat of capital-raising by banks continues, yet many are commenting that we are now past the worst in the financial crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 19, 2008

Yield Curve Widening Positive for Long-end Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Treasury market was somewhat weaker last week. In spite of mostly supportive fundamental news such as lower than expected inflation data (in the form of the CPI) and new 28 year lows on Consumer Confidence, the bond market appears to be stuck in the mud here. The US Long Bond future has traded in a narrow 3 point range for the better part of the past month and it closed the week pretty much dead smack in the middle of that range. There are a few things lining up that indicate odds are tilting more and more toward higher prices and lower yields going forward. Even if the market continues to trade sideways, it makes some sense to increase exposure to longer maturity product to earn the higher relative yields available in that sector of the bond market. When the stock market runs out of steam on this bounce, it should help bonds trade to higher levels.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 05, 2008

US Bond Market Outlook- Treasuries Cheap Relative to Stocks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Treasury market was pretty much flat last week. The Fed dutifully lowered rates by 25 basis points to 2% as the market expected on Wednesday. The brave men on the FOMC actually came up short on declaring a neutral bias, but the markets pretended that they were close enough to act as if the financial crisis was just about over. We got the seasonal pressure that we were looking for in bonds again this year.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 02, 2008

Greenspan's Bond Market Conundrum Bites Back / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...If Washington and the US consumer can't borrow cheap at the long end, then they'll just go to the short end for cheap money instead..."

WHAT'S A CENTRAL BANKER to do?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

US Fed Selling Treasuries as Federal Budget Deficit Doubles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

In the 20 weeks ended April 23, the Federal Reserve's outright holdings of U.S. Treasury securities had fallen by $231 billion, which is an annualized decline of $600.7 billion (see Chart 1). Up until recently, the Fed has rarely been a net seller of U.S. Treasury securities (see Chart 2). Of course, the reason the Fed has become such a large net seller of U.S. Treasury securities is that it is now providing about 14% of total reserve credit via the discount window, the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF) (see Chart 3). If the Fed does not want the fed funds rate to trade below its target rate, it has to drain reserves to offset the reserve injections via the discount window, TAF and PDCF.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 26, 2008

US Bond Investors Finally Waking Up to the New Reality of Massive Inflation! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: When the nation's most prominent bond investor, the man who is managing the world's largest bond fund, stops believing in U.S. government debt, it's time to stand up and take notice.

Bill Gross, the blackjack player-turned-bond king, whose words alone can spark rallies and selloffs in the $43-trillion bond market, has actually started betting against U.S. Treasury Bonds!

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Fed Interest Rate Cut Could Spark Bond Market Panic Selling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report. This week I have to highlight conditions in the bond markets as a priority, we maybe about to endure a bust of quite large proportions. I will also look at some longer term stock market indicators, confirmation that the Bank of England will follow the US and show why the current rally in stocks is due to a visit from an old friend, as readers at Livecharts.co.uk will know only too well.
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Forget the Credit Crisis Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet's turn our attention to something that isn't often discussed, namely bonds.

I know what some of you are saying already: “But bonds are boring!” Yes, they may well be boring in most instances. But this isn't one of those times. Actually, the message of the bond market is one of the more exciting and optimistic messages being sent anywhere in the financial markets right now and it behooves us to pay close attention to what bonds are saying.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 31, 2008

Picture du Jour: US Long Bonds in Injury Time / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince the advent of the credit crisis, stock markets, real estate and the US dollar have been the subject of investors' angst. However, two markets – commodities and long bonds – have remained in bullish trends. That, at least, is the way it looked until recently.

The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index hit a peak on March 13, and I argued in a subsequent post that although a correction was overdue, the long-term trend was still upwards.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

US Treasury Bonds vs. the CRB Point to Bond Market Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom 1980 until the spring of 2002, 10-year Treasury note yields held a positive correlation with the CRB index. Since 2002, however, there has been a dramatic divergence between Treasury yields and commodity prices. This trend is unsustainable in the long term because bond yields must eventually reflect rising inflationary pressures and at some point offer a positive real after-tax return.

There can be only two possible conclusions reached when viewing this disparity, shown in the chart below. One is that commodity prices are no longer an indication of inflationary pressures, a ridiculous contention that cannot be taken seriously. After all, the CRB Index contains 19 commodities that include precious metals, base metals, agriculture and energy, broad measures of the pricing pressures that exist in today's economy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2008

US Treasury Bonds: Safe Haven or Wealth Cemetery? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou know the spiel. Every time the stock markets drop, the financial press reports that US treasuries benefitted from the move in a “safe haven bid” - whatever that means.

Let's examine how safe US treasuries really are:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2008

Looming US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clive_Maund

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLike frightened rabbits scurrying back to the apparent safety of their hutches, investors rattled by the sub-prime shocks and the associated tremors in stockmarkets have been fleeing to the perceived safety of Treasury Bonds and Notes. The bad news is that this time the poacher knows where the rabbits are hiding and rabbit stew is on the menu tonight.

Let's just stop and think about this for a moment - just what is a Treasury Bond? - it is a piece of paper telling you that you are going to receive a fixed sum of US dollars at some designated point in the future.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 08, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market - The Mother of all Bubbles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn contrast to the dismal forecasting record of mainstream economists over the last few years, the forecasts that I have made regarding the dollar, oil, commodities, precious metals, global stock markets, inflation, and the U.S. economy have all come to pass. In addition, unlike the top economic oracles on Wall Street and in Washington, I can also point to similar accuracy in predicting the bursting of growing bubbles, first with technology in the late 1990's, and more recently with real estate.  However, my long-standing prediction about the fate of the bond market has fared much worse.  I still do believe this prediction was not wrong, but simply premature.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 20, 2007

Bullish on US Treasury Bonds, Despite Near-term Correction / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) closed about 80 cents off their earlier highs at 93.87 in what turned out to be a vertical panic-like move, the strength of which certainly surprised me (yesterday afternoon, in particular). The target of 94.00 did not surprise me, just the speed that it was achieved.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Mortgage Bonds Crash in Value , Banking Sector Deception to Send Gold Soaring to $1000 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn avalanche comes in 2008. Its wreckage will hit both the USEconomy and banking world. The greatest deception in the bank sector this year has been the misrepresentation of the mortgage debacle as a subprime problem. That is akin to calling an iceberg only a problem for what one can see, when 90% of its mass lies below water. Ice is lighter than water. Most mortgage bonds are like acidic stones weighing down bank and investor balance sheets. Wall Street and the USGovt con artists, using tools are fraud and distortion, prefer the public and investment community to think of the ‘Subprime Problem' as the source of distress.

On mortgage bonds, collateralized debt obligation derivatives, structured investment vehicles, all dominant in the news, reports constantly stress how the problem is traced to subprime mortgages to all those unworthy home loan borrowers who never should have been given such loans, even at higher mortgage rates. The systemic threat, both to the US banking system and USEconomy, has entered a new stage. The remedy addressed is sure to force the USDollar lower and the gold price higher, to occur in the next gear. Breakouts are coming which will seem to lose control, like what was seen in September and October.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 10, 2007

Nuclear Bond Implosion Ahead As Long-term Inflationary Expectations Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

The US Fed's measure for long term inflationary expectations may keep it from dropping rates much further, potentially setting off a 'nuclear' bond-price implosion. An only hours-old Bloomberg article details why "Chopper-Bernie" may have to ground his inflation-helicopter much earlier than anyone expects.

In essence, an inflation indicator used by the Fed, and literally signed off on by Alan Greenspan, indicates that bond investors' long-term inflationary expectations are on the rise - and significantly so.

Bond investors have recently been lulled into a false sense of security by the alleged 'fact' that inflation remained so low.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

US Treasury Bond Market Rockets As Yields Drop Sharply on Flight to Safety / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The bond market is going wild again on the upside, thereby pressing 10 year T-note yield to 3.94% from Friday's close at 4.01%, while the 2 year T-note is yielding 3.04%... Let's take a look at the TLT's (Lehman 20 year T-bond ETF)...

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 19, 2007

NOLTE NOTES - Bond Market Rallies Despite Rising Inflation, Stocks to Buck Season Trend and Head Lower / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_J_Nolte

The inflation figures released last week did little to derail the bond rally of the past few months. While it was in-line with expectations, the year-to-year inflation figures are running higher than many are comfortable with and as such, expect that the Fed is not going to cut rates that is already factored into the market. This holiday week, we'll get some housing data that many are hoping will indicate that housing is beginning to stabilize.

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