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Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Sunday, July 15, 2018

The US Dollar Crash of 2018 Has Begun / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Austin_Galt

Previous analysis updated – in previous analysis produced on the 21st June 2018, I called the high of the rally at 95.22. This was wrong. It traded marginally higher, 3 pips in fact, putting in a high of 95.25 on the 28th June. It now appears as if it is all systems go for the mini crash of 2018. This should, in my opinion, be confirmed next week with follow through to the downside.

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Currencies

Friday, July 13, 2018

Focus on the Greenback, Will USD Fall Below Euro 1.6? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

Although last week’s decline took the USD Index under the late June’s lows, currency bulls didn’t break down with this deterioration and responded to their rivals fairly in previous days. Thanks to their determination, the greenback has wiped out most of the recent decline, which in combination with several other positive factors about which we wrote in today's Forex Trading Alert suggests that ...

Before, we analyze the current situation in our currency pairs, let’s examine the short-term picture of the USD Index.

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Currencies

Friday, July 13, 2018

Bitcoin Picture Less Than Pretty / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

The move up seemed to be continuing and the first impression was that we were seeing a first period of appreciation in some time. But the operative word here is “seemed.” If we take a closer look at what the current environment really is, the picture is far less pretty.

Bitcoin has been around for close to a decade now. Yet we haven’t seen much in the way of research on the Bitcoin network and the principles governing it. Sure, there have been studies analyzing the system from an economic point of view, but their number has been low relative to other topics covered by economic research. In other words, Bitcoin hasn’t been researched that much by people from academia.  Against such a backdrop, it is interesting to see new papers taking on the problem of incentives in the Bitcoin network. In an article on the MIT Technology Review website, we read:

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

The Value of Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

In a world that is looking for alternative forms of currency due to heavy regulations and red tape installed in the current transaction systems of the economy, cryptocurrency is presented as a formidable option to traditional forms of currency. Cryptocurrency began as a craze for digital currency that is unbound by many laws and regulations. With cryptocurrency, few questions are asked when making or receiving payments which makes it very attractive.

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

How NOT to Become a Casualty in the War on Cash / Currencies / War on Cash

By: MoneyMetals

Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now.

However, a hyper-inflationary collapse in the dollar isn’t the only dire scenario to insure against.

It is now clear that the dollar, and the financial network it runs on, is a mechanism for controlling people who don’t toe the government line.

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

An Elixir for Argentina’s Fiscal Dysfunction / Currencies / Argentina

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Argentina and its peso are in trouble, again. By officially replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar, Argentina’s peso nightmare would end. But, in a country in which fiscal fiddlers know many tricks, some fiscal rules must also be added to the prescription.

Dollarization should impose a hard budget constraint on Argentina. Under dollarization, which exists in 33 countries, hard budget constraints are imposed because dollarized countries must finance government spending by taxing or borrowing in either domestic or international bond markets. They cannot finance government expenditures by using a central bank, which issues a domestic currency. As a result, fiscal deficits, when they occur, tend to be relatively small. But, there has been one noteworthy, unusual case: Zimbabwe. This case merits our attention.

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize / Currencies / Argentina

By: Steve_H_Hanke

On July 9th, Argentina will celebrate its 202nd birthday. The biggest spoiler during the festivities will be the beleaguered peso. It’s not the first time the peso has been a spoiler. Since its founding, Argentina has been burdened with numerous economic crises. Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). To list but a few of these crises: 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, and 2018(?).

By the time its 100th birthday rolled around, Argentina had experienced only three major economic crises. Alas, the next 102 years have been much more eventful, with eight currency crises, not counting 2018.

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Currencies

Monday, July 09, 2018

How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies / Currencies / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Not so long ago, Asian currencies anticipated depreciation pressures to increase, due to monetary normalization. Yet, it is the trade wars that are now penalizing all currencies, particularly in exporting economies.

In January, I gave a global economic briefing on the outlook of the Philippines in the Nordic Chamber of Commerce in Manila. At the time, the peso was still about 50.80 to U.S. dollar. Among other things, I projected the peso to soften to 54 or more toward the end of the year, which I considered largely the net effect of normalization in advanced economies, elevated trade friction worldwide, as well as fiscal expansion (the Duterte investment program).

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Currencies

Saturday, July 07, 2018

The Euro, the British Pound and the Other Side of the Coin / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

Analyzing the medium-term charts of the euro and the British pound, we see that currency bulls fought fiercely with their rivals during recent weeks. Despite several attempts to push both currencies lower, they successfully defended their main strongholds in both cases and defeated fans of the greenback. What does this mean for the U.S. currency and its European competitors?

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Currencies

Thursday, July 05, 2018

Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: ElliottWave-Forecast

At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical

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Currencies

Thursday, July 05, 2018

Why Is the Cryptocurrency Market So Volatile: Expert Take / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Andrew_Cioffi

The age of digital currencies, particularly cryptocurrencies, is here with us. It is barely a decade since the market for these digital currencies came into force. In fact, 2019 will mark exactly ten years since Bitcoin, blockchain and the ensuing platforms were launched. Cryptocurrencies have introduced so many different possibilities for both online and offline trade. While these currencies have been in the market for a considerable duration, the volatility is yet to settle. There are several key reasons why the cryptocurrency market is still very volatile. Here is a highlight of the main reasons.

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

Back to Resistance for Bitcoin and Ethereum / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Submissions

By Ryan Wilday: In last week’s article, my charts showed that I expected a corrective rally into the zones we are now pushing against. As always, I marked key resistance with a box and price has entered those areas. These zones are $6724-$7045 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $461-$489 in ethereum (ETH-USD).

Because I don’t view the downside trend as complete, nor do we have price through resistance in, my primary remains that that we’ll see further downside. But any thesis regarding market direction must be held loosely. Instead this is an opportunity for me to observe how the market reacts.

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Currencies

Wednesday, July 04, 2018

GBP/USD – Time to Jump in with Both Feet? / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadia_Simmons

On Friday, the British pound showed strength against the greenback, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdown under the long-term support line. The closure of the week above this important line emphasized the advantage of currency bulls over their rivals. What a pity that they rested on their laurels.Why? Because yesterday’s session erased most of the earlier rebound. This bucket of cold water, however, awakened the buyers who returned to the game for higher levels. What must they do to make GBP/USD grow above 1.3000?

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Currencies

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

Bitcoin Tension Ramps up / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

The recent couple of days have turned the short-term outlook on its ear for some traders. The last couple of months have seemed like sooth sailing, not something that could be said about the Bitcoin market too many times in the past. Now, we get a different reading and some might say that the tide has turned. But you need to go deeper than that.

Bitcoin has gone up and the bulls are euphoric. This is a marked change from the recent weeks when there was little to nothing for Bitcoin aficionados to cheer to. The main question, however, remains: “Has anything changed?” With the recent appreciation, we could also ask: “Does this action change anything?” Is there anything that could drive the profits on our hypothetical speculative positions?

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Currencies

Friday, June 29, 2018

Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Troy_Bombardia

For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.

From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:

On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.

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Currencies

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Sound Money Needed Now More Than Ever / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

The sound money movement reemerged on the national political scene a decade ago. In 2008, the financial crisis brought in a fresh wave of U.S. gold and silver investors.

Ron Paul and the Tea Party advocated for limiting government and ending the Federal Reserve system. Sound money advocates made real inroads in recruiting Americans to their cause based on evidence that the nation is headed for bankruptcy.

The implications of the most recent financial crisis went way beyond budget and finance.

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Currencies

Saturday, June 23, 2018

A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Peter_Schiff

On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements.

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Currencies

Friday, June 22, 2018

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Austin_Galt

Previous analysis updated – price has continued rallying right up to the previous swing high and I believe the 2018 top was made today at 95.22. The expectation of a mini crash in the second half of the year remains unchanged.

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Currencies

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Things You Need To Know If You Want To Invest In Bitcoin Now / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

2017 was a wonderful year for Bitcoin but 2018 did not yet live up to initially set expectations. Basically, people that are specialized in Bitcoin and crytpocurrency investments are now divided. Investing in Bitcoin is something so many are interested in but before you do this, there are some things that you absolutely have to know.

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Currencies

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

EURUSD: Why the "Next Day or Two" are Critical / Currencies / Euro

By: EWI

An Open House insight from our Currency Pro Service editor

Every week, our Currency Pro Service editor, Jim Martens, records a new video focusing on EURUSD, USDJPY and other markets. Learn why "the next day or two" should determine the next move in the euro in this clip from Jim's June 17 video.

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