Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
The Gold Market - Mario Draghi is a Hype Machine / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: EconMatters
The Gold Market is pretty interesting here as investors realized on Thursday that much that comes out of Mario Draghi`s mouth is complete hyperbole, because things aren`t nearly as dire in Europe as some bankers try to persuade for additional stimulus out of the ECB, and Germany isn`t going to sign off on the extreme bazooka stimulus measures because Germans by nature are conservative, and there is a commensurate symmetry between ratcheting up extreme monetary measures and stoking the fire of unintended consequences.
Saturday, December 12, 2015
Gold Sector Inputs That Actually Matter and Stock Market Refugees / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Gary_Tanashian
The word play in the title is in reference to the ridiculous fuss over COMEX gold inventory and other promotions masquerading as fundamentals put out by cartoons masquerading as analysis.
30 year divided by, and 30 year minus 5 year are neutral at best. Yield spreads would be rising in a gold-positive environment. As a side note, this spread also tends to bring trouble for the stock market during its initial stages of rising.
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Friday, December 11, 2015
Gold Thrives in Fed Interest Rate Hike Cycles / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s deep new secular lows of recent weeks were fueled by American futures speculators’ overpowering fear of Fed rate hikes. They believe zero-yielding gold is doomed in a higher-rate world, so they dumped gold futures at astounding record rates. The problem is history proves just the opposite, that gold tends to thrive during Fed-rate-hike cycles. This revelation is a super-bullish near-term omen for gold.
Some brief context is essential to frame gold’s apparently dire predicament today. Late July saw gold crushed to new secular lows by a record extreme gold-futures shorting attack brazenly executed to blast through long-side stops and foment panic selling. But this burst selling soon fizzled, leading to a major gold bottom in early August. Over the subsequent few months, gold carved an impressive new uptrend.
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Friday, December 11, 2015
Gold and Silver Exceptional Hypocrisy / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Jesse
Gold and silver finished largely unchanged in a lightly traded session.
There were no deliveries worth noting at The Bucket Shop yesterday. Nothing in gold, and a few bars of silver.
The gold warehouses were completely quiet, sitting tight with warranted (registered) bullion sitting at decades long lows, and with little historical precedent for their ratio to open interest.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold Bullion / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
We’re at a moment of historic opportunity.
By Chris Martenson
Every year or two we update this report which lays out the investment thesis for gold. Here is this year’s version.
Silver is touched upon only as necessary; as a separate report of equal scope is required for that precious metal.
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Thursday, December 10, 2015
Strippers Suffering From Low Oil Prices / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
With Prices Below $50, what is a stripper to do?With OPEC breaking down and any kind of coordination among its members on price cuts looking increasingly unlikely, it now appears that oil prices could remain below $50 a barrel for a year or more. As producers confront this unpleasant reality, some will finally start to significantly curtail or even shut down operations. And that is going to severely hurt an all but invisible group; strippers in the United States.
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Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Dishonest Money Will Die - I Hope / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: DeviantInvestor
Honest money – gold and silver – are not supported by governments and central bankers for obvious reasons. The Fed can “print” $85 Billion per month to buy dodgy paper to support the banking system, but the Fed can’t produce 75 million ounces of gold each month. Consequently we use dishonest money.
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
The Science Behind Shale Oil Investments that Pay Off Big Time / Commodities / Shale Oil and Gas
By: The_Energy_Report
As Matt Badiali, geologist and editor of the Stansberry Resource Report, explains, it has only been in the last few decades have we learned to release the potential of the massive oil and gas reservoirs in the U.S. Now we are learning how to tell if a shale project will be profitable. In this Energy Report article, he shares three names he is watching closely.
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
Plunging Commodities Interfere With The New World Order / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Anglo American, a British company, and one of the world’s biggest miners, and a ‘producer’ (actually just a miner, how did those two terms ever get mixed up?!) of platinum (world no. 1), diamonds, copper, nickel, iron ore and coal, said today it would scrap dividends AND fire 85,000 of it 135,000 global workforce (that’s 63%!).
Anglo is just the first in a long litany line we’ll see going forward. Commodities ‘producers’ are being completely wiped out, hammered, killed, murdered. They’ve been able to hedge their downside risks so far, but now find they can’t even afford the price of the hedges (insurance) anymore. And then there’s all the banks and funds that financed them.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
How Much Longer Will Rising US Dollar Crush Commodities and Mining Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2015
By: Jeb_Handwerger
-For over four years, capital has been flowing from Europe into the US Currency and Economy to get better returns.
-The rising dollar and S&P 500 crushed commodities and emerging economies over the past several years.
-Geopolitical uncertainty throughout the world is rising especially in the Middle East where now Russia and the West are taking on ISIS.
-Rapidly rising US dollar caused horrible bear market in mining equities.
-High US dollar is slowing down economic growth domestically which could be exacerbated by higher rates. Meanwhile, Europe and emerging economies may be bottoming and improving with the negative rates.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Gold Buying Surges At U.S. Mint In November – China Buys 21 Tonnes In November Alone / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
Despite gold at near 6 year lows, global demand for physical bullion remains very high. This is clearly seen in the recent demand data from the U.S. Mint and other mints. It is also seen in demand data from GFMS and the World Gold Council which shows very robust demand from Germany, India and of course, China.
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Extreme Leverage in a Gold Futures Market Nearing the Breaking Point / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: MoneyMetals
The metals markets rallied strongly on Friday – action which came as a surprise to many. The gains snapped a 6-week losing streak for gold, silver, and platinum. Prices rose despite a stronger-than-expected November jobs report raising the odds the Fed will hike interest rates later this month.
Perhaps silver and gold futures finally caught a safe-haven bid on news of the terrorism-linked shooting in Southern California.
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Tuesday, December 08, 2015
Crude Oil Price Under $40! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $54.12 and initial (!) target price at $35.72 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Friday, crude oil reversed and declined sharply after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to keep production high weighed on investors' sentiment. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude lost 2.74% and slipped under the barrier of $40 once again. What's next?
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Monday, December 07, 2015
BIS Warns of ‘Uneasy Calm’ in Financial Markets Before Possible Debt Storm / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: GoldCore
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned in its latest quarterly review that the current ‘uneasy calm’ in financial markets might be short lived, threatened by the Fed’s widely expected interest rate hike – the first rate increase in a decade.
Monday, December 07, 2015
Silver Rides Along with Gold Price Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
Silver broke out with gold on Friday, following an extraordinary plunge in the dollar on Thursday. On its 3-month chart we can see that the ground had been well prepared for this move, with an intermediate base pattern having formed above support for about 3 weeks prior to the breakout. The preceding persistent decline included an extraordinary 15 days down in a row. There were various indications of an impending upside breakout, including the appearance of a bull hammer at the support and a bullish cross by the MACD indicator above its moving average, the large gap with moving averages, and, in the background, silver's COT was improving and gold's COT had become remarkably bullish by last week.
Monday, December 07, 2015
Gold Price Convincing Upside Breakout Triggering Start of Intermediate Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Clive_Maund
On Thursday the dollar reversed dramatically to the downside and on Friday gold broke out upside, with both developments being predicated by the most bullish gold COTs for 14 years.
On gold's 3-month chart we can see that, after trying the patience of bulls for weeks as the COT pressure cooker intensified, gold finally broke out on Friday. This was a big decisive breakout on strong volume which COTs indicate is "the real deal". Fortunately the COTs were already so bullish a week ago that we went long ETFs, stocks and Calls before the breakout. As we can see, even after Friday's big move, there is lots more upside potential here, as gold is still heavily oversold on its MACD and way below its 200-day moving average.
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Saturday, December 05, 2015
Gold And Silver – Hope And Change From Last Week? Little Hope, Little Change / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Michael_Noonan
Was last week the start of something big? You be the judge of what the market is saying.
There is a reason and purpose why we always use and refer to the weekly charts, and the monthly at the end of each month. These higher time frames are more controlling over the lower time frames, particularly the daily chart upon which most rely. From the daily, many then choose to view the markets from an intra day perspective, as though a closer time frame will give better results. That is not the case.
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Saturday, December 05, 2015
Gold Price Weekly Reversal : This is IT ! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Dan_Norcini
In watching the short squeeze taking place in the gold market this AM, I am noticing that the push higher is creating a WEEKLY UPSIDE REVERSAL PATTERN on the intermediate term chart.V
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Saturday, December 05, 2015
Gold’s Artificial Price Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold’s latest slide to new secular lows has amplified the hyper-bearish sentiment long plaguing it. More than ever, traders are universally convinced gold is doomed to drift lower indefinitely. But these extreme gold lows are not fundamentally righteous, they resulted from extreme record gold-futures shorting. As these risky leveraged bets must soon be covered, prices driven by them are artificial and unsustainable.
One of the greatest mistakes made in the markets is the common assumption that prevailing price levels are justified by fundamentals. Nothing could be farther from the truth. While prices do indeed gravitate towards levels supported by supply and demand over the long term, herd emotions drag them away in the short term. Popular greed and fear have vastly more influence on current prices than fundamentals.
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Friday, December 04, 2015
Does GDP Drive the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2015
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country in a specific time period. It is also the most common measure of a nation’s overall economic activity or the size of economy. More and more economists recognize the flawed character of GDP (for example, it includes only final goods and services; overstates the consumption; it assumes that government spending is productive; it treats imports as something negative; it excludes household work, and so on), but governments, central banks, financial analysts and investors still think it is possible to frame the whole economy in just one number. This is why the GDP growth is still closely followed, also in the gold market.