Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Sunday, April 03, 2016

Gold Getting Stale? – Charts and COTs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dan_Norcini

Notice on the very short term chart, a 2 hour run, gold has been in a steady decline since the middle of last month with rallies attracting selling at the key resistance levels noted on the chart.

Price is currently holding below $1212 – $1210.

Initial resistance begins near $1225 and extends higher towards $1228. Above that lies $1237-$1240.

Saturday, April 02, 2016

Gold And Silver – Qrtly, Monthly Charts. No Change In Trends / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Noonan

“Nothing ever changes on Wall Street. Speculation is as old as the hills. What has happened before in the markets will happen again.” Jesse Livermore

Despite taking his life at the Sherry Netherland Hotel in 1940, at the age of 63, [he considered himself a failure], Livermore is revered by many as the consummate trader.
We often comment on the importance of rules, and our adherence to rules does not come from Livermore, but he always attributed his losses to the times when he failed to follow his rules.

Saturday, April 02, 2016

Gold Stocks Correcting Through Time Not Price / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold Stocks enjoyed a fabulous, near vertical rebound into March yet were in extreme overbought territory. We and many others called for a correction. In recent weeks those other voices have worried excessively about the alleged bearish construction of the CoT. Although Gold and Silver have essentially consolidated with a little weakness, the gold stocks have continued to hold above even initial support. Over the past month they have corrected through time rather than price. The longer gold stocks hold above initial support, the greater the chance they are building a bullish flag consolidation.

Friday, April 01, 2016

Silver Is Coiled Spring / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver's reluctant, sluggish participation in early 2016's powerful gold rally has been glaringly obvious. Instead of amplifying the yellow metal's big gains as in the past, silver largely failed to even keep pace. The lack of silver confirmation for gold's big move has certainly raised concerns. But despite silver's vexing torpidity in recent months, it is a coiled spring ready to explode higher to catch and surpass gold.

Silver has always been something of an investing enigma, somehow combining attributes of a highly-speculative investment, a conventional industrial commodity, and an alternative currency. Silver trades like each from time to time, stymieing attempts to classify it. Silver tends to grind sideways boringly for long periods of time, and then skyrocket higher in bulls of such magnitude that they are celebrated for years.

Friday, April 01, 2016

Gold Prices Rise 16% In Q1 – Best Quarter In 30 Years / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

– Gold prices gained 16% in Q1 – best quarterly performance since 1986
– Gains due to increasing global financial, macroeconomic and monetary risk
– Stocks come under pressure – Flat in U.S.; Falls in Europe and Asia
– Sterling fell 20% on BREXIT concerns and the euro fell 11% against gold
– Canadian dollar fell 10%, Aussie dollar fell 9% & Swiss franc fell 12% against gold
– Outlook positive as gold and silver remain undervalued
– Reasserted role as safe haven in Q1 

Friday, April 01, 2016

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: A Truly Generational PM Stocks Opportunity / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

This week's Gong Show in the global financial markets reminds me of the early 1980s before the advent of the Internet or online trading or blogs and especially before 30-something financial "advisors" were allowed to go on the national (and international) airwaves or Internet websites and babble on for what seem like days how "The Fed has our back!" as an excuse for buying stocks at 23 times forward earnings.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Silver Lows – Silver Ratios / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Silver prices as this is written (March 23) are down 60 cents on the day.  Scary …  no, probably a normal correction.

Yes, paper silver prices on the COMEX are “managed” for the benefit of traders, banks and others large enough to manipulate the prices.  It makes sense that if a bank, which owns the regulators and can “work” the prices to their advantage  …  will do so.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Gold Firms Up On Dovish Yellen Commentary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: AnyOption

Precious metals prices have been on a tear higher since the outset of 2016 as concerns about the pace of US policy tightening combined with growing global uncertainty sent gold to the highest levels since February of 2015.  Although commentary from more hawkish Federal Reserve members in the previous few weeks raised speculation that another US rate hike could come as soon as April, Chairwoman Janet Yellen extinguished those expectations with her more dovish tone.  Citing the downside risks to the current pace of global economic expansion combined with reduced confidence in the outlook for monetary policy normalization, Yellen sent the US dollar tumbling with investors embracing gold, driving the precious metal nearly 1.65% higher over the session.  A crumbling outlook combined with a drive towards data dependency in decision-making has seen hawkish sentiment shift more neutral, benefiting precious metals near-term.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Crude Oil Price Meets Support / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
On Tuesday, crude oil lost 2.06% ahead of the American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory report. Thanks to this drop, light crude closed another day under $39, but reached important support zone. Will it encourage oil bulls to act in the coming days?

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Gold Royalty Companies Continue to Progress / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

The large gold royalty companies remain among our top holdings, notwithstanding the high valuations and our comments on the overall gold market and short-term concern on the gold stocks.

Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. (OR:TSX, $12.90) is all cashed up, as its two core royalties proceed well. It has about CA$650 million available for investments (of which CA$260 million is cash), after spending about CA$220 million in the last year on several royalties.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Believe it or Not, it’s happening to Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Tonight as I was going over my charts and running my end of analysis the charts jumped out at me with a trade setup and wanted to share my cycle chart for gold with you.

The price chart of gold below is exactly what my cycle analysis told us to look for last week WELL ahead of the today’s news and its things play out I as I feel they will then we stand to make some pretty good money as gold falls in value during the month of April.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Silver’s Bullish Cup And Handle Pattern / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: InvestingHaven

Two months ago, we signaled a huge buying opportunity was setting up in gold. Basically, that observation was based on a bullish chart pattern which is known as a ‘cup and handle’. After our call, gold moved higher in an explosive way.

Today, we observe a similar chart formation on silver’s chart. The cup and handle resistance line comes in at $16 /oz.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

U.S. Lifted The Crude Oil Export Ban, And Exports Went…Down / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Just over three months after the authorities lifted the four-decade ban on crude oil exports, the U.S. has actually exported less this year than it did over the same period the year before, when the ban was still in place.

According to Clipper Data market intelligence cited by the Financial Times, we've seen a 5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil export volumes since the beginning of this year. The data suggests that on average we are exporting (waterborne) 325,000 barrels per day now, compared to 342,000 barrels per day during the first months of 2015.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Marc Faber: Gold Still Most Desirable Currency in Wake of Brussels Attack / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

After several years of low gold prices, 2016 has brought a rebound, with the metal rising almost 20% since the first of the year, although recent price corrections have slowed gold's advance. After the Brussels terrorist attacks last Tuesday, gold rose briefly, but then was undercut by a strong U.S. dollar rally. Investors are wondering whether gold is in a temporary correction mode or if the three-month bull has run its course.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Gold, the Misery Index, and Insanity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

In 1980 Ronald Reagan spoke about the Misery Index.  An economist had added the inflation rate to the unemployment rate, called it the Misery Index, and used it to indicate the social costs and economic difficulty for the middle class.

Today the Misery Index is much smaller than in 1980, thanks to … intelligent fiscal management, economically beneficial monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and wise political policy from the White House.  If you believe any of those, read no further.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Goldman is Dead Wrong on Demise of Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Michael_Pento

Goldman Sachs has been predicting the demise of gold for the past few years. Back in July of 2015, Jeff Currie (Global Head of Commodities Research at the investment firm) went on record predicting the price of the yellow metal would fall below $1,000 per ounce by the start of 2016. However, that prediction failed to materialize; despite the fact that gold was already below $1,100 at the time he made the call.

Sunday, March 27, 2016

Sugar Commodity Price Set For Correction  / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities

By: Austin_Galt

The sugar price has traded exactly as outlined in analysis titled, Sugar Technical Outlook, produced back in September 2015 and has seen price increase by just over 50%.

That analysis outlined the expectation for price to trade up to around the $16.25 level. Price just hit a high of $16.75 before reversing back down impulsively. I believe that completes the intermediate term rally.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

What to Watch For in Gold Price and Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold and gold stocks finally showed a bit of weakness during the holiday shortened week. Gold had its biggest weekly loss in months, losing 3% to $1217/oz while the miners (GDX, GDXJ) declined about 5%. Silver lost 4%. If weakness in Gold and gold stocks continues then we should turn our attention to technical support and see if it will hold. Gold and gold stocks are trading above the 400-day moving average which has been key resistance since 2011. Holding that support in the days or weeks ahead would offer confirmation that a new bull has started.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Who Sets the Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

How is the price of gold established? Scratching the surface, the answer seems obvious: it is a result of a free interplay of market forces. However, there is no single gold market; the yellow metal is traded in many places. Who then sets the price of gold? London or New York? Which of them shapes the price discovery process? What is the relationship between the LBMA Gold Price and Comex futures and spot prices? As the chart below shows, there is an almost perfect correlation between London and New York prices; but which leads the dance?

Friday, March 25, 2016

Gold Stocks Spring Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs.  Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets.  Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March before embarking on a strong spring rally in April and May.  With gold stocks back in a bull, their seasonality warrants consideration.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.