Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, February 05, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Possibility of Breakout Failure / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
GOLDIt was looking good there for a while but then along came Friday. Why always Friday? Maybe it just seems like sharp moves occur on Friday's. Maybe speculators do not wish to hold contracts over the week-end.
LONG TERM Well, the first thing is the long term P&F chart (see chart in last week's commentary). Thursday's action broke that initial resistance at $645 with a move to $660 to provide a bullish signal. The swift reversal on Friday, however, puts that break-out in doubt. As mentioned last week I think it's best to wait for a move to $690 which would break through the next serious barrier. That would then set up a stronger move that would take us through to new bull market highs and then through the 1980 rally high of $748. After that, the 1980 all time high of $894. But let's take it one step at a time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 04, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - 4th Feb 07 - Mission Accomplished / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
It wasn't easy to present yet another update last week that anticipated additional highs in the face of an outside down week, which has a great track record of being correct. The January 28 th update stated:
“Could the reversal looking pattern only be part of a larger correction that's stalling for time? When I look over many of my charts, the answer that pops out is yes. So, even though I can label a top is in, I won't do it yet for several reasons. The sentiment on that drop wasn't what I wanted to see and, believe it or not, I have two very valid setups for additional highs. Another huge leg up isn't in the cards, but I'm not about to be short prematurely into the squeeze of all squeezes and get taken out of the position minutes before it turns.”
Once again, the market had most traders convinced last week the top was in only to leave them on the sidelines or, worse, short. It's amazing the market simply won't pull back and continues to grind upward leaving no one a chance to get in cheap.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, February 04, 2007
The USA and Saudi Arabia Combat the Axis of Oil - Iran, Russia and Venezuela / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Crude oil is the key weapon in the battle between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, aligned with the United States, against the “Oil Axis” of Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. The Persian Gulf Oil kingdoms fear the emergence of a Tehran-led axis linking Iran, Iraqi Shiites, Syria, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Palestinian Hamas in Gaza, and Islamic militants linked to al Qaeda trying to topple the Saudi royal family.Earlier this month, Riyadh fired the first shot in the war against Iran, by knocking the price of crude oil to as low as $50 per barrel. The goal is to squeeze Iran's budget and wreck havoc on its economy, as much as possible, before the Ayatollahs can get their hands on the nuclear bomb. According to a Jan 24th report in the UK Telegraph, that indicated North Korea is helping Iran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, February 02, 2007
Uranium Bull Market Set to Continue During February / Commodities / Strategic News
By: James_Finch
Buyers have begun to show willingness in paying higher prices for uranium oxide (U3O8). Sellers remain confident they can get even higher prices. The recent six-week stalemate ended when Trade Tech raised the uranium spot price indicator to $75/pound in the consulting firm's month-end report.
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
Winning the Global War for Natural Resources / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Money_and_Markets
Although Hezbollah, al-Qaeda, and the war in Iraq often grab the headlines, I think the global battle for natural resources will probably define the 21st Century when it's all said and done. This war isn't fought with bullets … yet. Instead, it's fought with contracts and trade agreements as countries like China, India, Russia — and, yes, the U.S. — struggle for economic hegemony.
Here are just a few of the latest moves ...
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Caution ! / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Merv_Burak
Only two up days with three down days but still ending on the plus side. Gold is up against a strong resistance barrier. Will it break through? Ah! The mysteries of life.
GOLD - LONG TERM
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
ELLIOTT WAVE Analysis of Gold and HUI - Triangle Pattern / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dan_Stinson
Gold is in a triangle pattern and it currently appears to have started wave e down. We should see minor downside for the wave e count, before a reversal and subsequent breakout to the upside. The downside could complete as 3 waves or as 5 waves with further sideways action in wave e towards the apex of the triangle. A break below the lower trendline and the wave c low in the triangle would be short term bearish indicating further downside before a substantial move higher. A break above the wave b high before a pullback could indicate 2 possible scenarios.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 29, 2007
Investment Shock and Awe - Opportunities from growing risk of world conflict / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
5 new shockwaves, 5 big dangers and 6 opportunities
A new world war is unfolding with untold consequences for investors. But Wall Street remains largely oblivious. This war is not confined strictly to Afghanistan and Iraq. It is already spreading to Pakistan, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. Nor are its protagonists limited to the few countries regularly mentioned in news reports. To the contrary, even considering only those countries that are directly involved with troops or weapons, I count over forty — the U.S., Britain, Germany, and nearly all the members of NATO ... plus Iran, Syria, Pakistan and many other Muslim nations from Morocco to Malaysia.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 29, 2007
The Real International Price of Silver / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Robert_Watson
What is the real price of an ounce of silver and just how widespread should a silver bull market be? We have watched over the last few years as the price of silver in US dollars has marched upwards from the lows of $4 to the recent highs of $15. However, the good luck of silver has been mainly laid at the door of the bad luck of US dollar. The US dollar depreciates and hence the price of silver in US dollars appreciates. Seems a simple enough equation, but surely a real bull market will stand on its own merits and not on the misfortunes of another? With that in mind, is silver worth investing in by lovers of silver from other countries across the globe?Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 28, 2007
The Global Warming Resources Boom - Invest in Uranium, Gold, Silver and Diamonds / Commodities / Investing
By: Money_and_Markets
Seeping Giants and Untold Riches! - Look out your window and see if pigs are flying.
Why? Because the impossible is happening: Major corporations are joining forces with environmental groups in an unprecedented, unholy alliance to push for quicker action on global warming. A decade ago, if you'd placed bets on this kind of partnership emerging, you probably could have gotten 100-to-1 pay-offs in your favor.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Gold Market sectorwide Buy Alert / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Gold is looking technically stronger than it has done for the past 16 months. It would have escaped the notice of many that it broke out last week from a little-known technical pattern known as 3-arc Fan Correction. This pattern was not detected earlier because it is rather rare, and instead attempts were made to define the action in gold since last May as some kind of triangle, which could, of course, be bearish. However, a 3-arc Fan was clearly identified in the Streettracks chart last week on www.clivemaund.com, prompting a re-examination of the gold chart, whereupon it became evident that a similar pattern exists in gold. This is very important, because it largely sweeps away lingering doubts about where gold is headed. This is because these patterns are very bullish, and seldom break down.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Precious Metals Stocks update Gold, Silver : Follow the Money / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Dominick
As we mentioned last week, there are numerous factors weighing on the spot price of precious metals and this fact can make it challenging from week to week to say exactly which forces will predominate and determine the next direction the market will take. The forces include sentiment, interest rates, speculative demand, but, of course, the bottom line is money. If you can follow the money, understanding where it's moving and why, then you'll know what's driving the metals markets. The operative words over the last two weeks have been:
"In the short term, if next week's data continue to nourish the sentiment that the economy has rounded the bottom, a veritable soft landing, then metals have a realistic shot at overtaking resistance. The hotter the economy appears to become, the more willingness investors should have to get back into mining stocks and the greater the inflation concerns will become."
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 25, 2007
The Cycle Turn and Trend Indicator Applied to Oils and Copper / Commodities / Cycles Analysis
By: Tim_Wood
If I could only have one indicator it would be the Cycle Turn Indicator. This indicator is primarily used on the intermediate-term weekly charts to tell me the current market direction and to identify intermediate-term turn points. Staying on the right side of the market really is as simple as following this indicator, which we do. The Dow theory, cyclical and statistical work is used to "look over the horizon" and to tell us what we should expect further down the road in the future. My basic philosophy is to use the Dow theory, my cyclical and statistical analysis to develop the longer-term market expectation, all the while using the very important intermediate-term Cycle Turn Indicator in the interim.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Silver Market Update - Breakout to follow Gold higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 23, 2007
Gold Market Update - Upside breakout likely - Options straddle opportunity / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 22, 2007
Gold Analysis - Rumors of Metals' Demise are Greatly Exaggerated! / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Dominick
Even after last week's rally, there is still talk about the run in commodities being finished. If you watched CNBC, you heard over and over that money had rotated out of commodities and into tech and, later, into retail. But, as we proudly boasted last week, even in the midst of this so-called "collapse", gold and silver never broke their psychological $600 and $12 support levels. And the action since last weekend's update fit the proscription very closely. We said:
The daily charts below reveal that GLD is now very close to resistance at its 50-day moving average. A convincing move to $63 in the ETF would echo the signal that the spot market has cleared a path to $640 gold, but it will take more than technical impetus alone.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 21, 2007
Gold Bull Market set to resume / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold has been in a corrective pattern since the May 2006 peak, attempting to build a base in anticipation of the resumption of the bull market. Now finally, Gold appears ready to resume the up trend with clear technical indicators signaling a breakout is imminent.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
Leveraging Silver Investments with Silver Stocks / Commodities / Analysis & Strategy
By: Robert_Watson
I talked a couple of weeks back about how silver could be used to leverage the price of gold but what about silver mining stocks leveraging the price of silver? In that previous article a four-year rolling leverage of silver over gold was calculated to show how silver either out-performed or under-performed gold as bull markets waxed and waned. Applying the same principles, we have the following 4-year leverages for the mining companies that make up The Silver Analyst Stock Composite Index. The stocks are listed according to performance. The record maximum leverage is given to the right as well as the date on which it occurred.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 20, 2007
. / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Joe_Nicholson
Even after last week's rally, there is still talk about the run in commodities being finished. If you watched CNBC, you heard over and over that money had rotated out of commodities and into tech and, later, into retail. But, as we proudly boasted last week, even in the midst of this so-called "collapse", gold and silver never broke their psychological $600 and $12 support levels. And the action since last weekend's update fit the proscription very closely.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 19, 2007
Commodity Markets Strategic Review - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Copper / Commodities / Forecasts & Technical Analysis
By: Clive_Maund
As an investor, what matters to you more than anything, what is of paramount importance, is determining whether what you have invested in, or are thinking of investing in, is going to go up, down or sideways. If you are long you want the market to go up, if you are short you want it to go down, and if you have written both Call and Put options, you want it to move sideways. All consideration of fundamentals is subordinate to this Prime Objective.
Gold, Silver and Precious Metals stocks have been trading sideways for about 9 months now, following their strong advance to the April - May peak of last year, with many smaller stocks having slithered down a "slope of hope" to plumb low levels in the recent past. Understandably, many investors in the sector are growing increasingly fed up and frustrated with this situation, especially as every time the sector looks set to break higher it has suffered a smackdown. The purpose of this essay is to assess the current situation and to discuss effective tactics for dealing with it.
Read full article... Read full article...