Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Is Salter Duck Water Power The Uranium Banana Skin? / Commodities / Uranium
By: Bob_Kirtley
Recently, we wrote an article on the possible threats to the uranium bull market and nuclear power in general. In this article we will explore what we believe is the biggest single threat to the long term position of nuclear power with uranium as a fuel.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2007
The London Gold Pool Revisited! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mario_Innecco
Back in the 1960s when the dollar was still fixed to gold at a rate of $35 per troy ounce the United States Treasury and the other financial “policy makers” of the time were having more and more difficulty in maintainig this fixed rate of $35 in the London and European foreign exchange markets.
From 1933 to 1975 gold could not be traded in the United States so there was no official market in New York. The major reason for this difficulty in keeping gold pegged at $35 per troy ounce was that the U.S. government was printing dollars with no corresponding increase in its gold reserves and as a result the participants in the market started exchanging these inflated dollars for real thing!
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Wednesday, May 16, 2007
GOLD THOUGHTS - The core CPI is the “WMD” of the Federal Reserve's inflation commitment / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Only the truly deluded believe that the core consumer price index released for the U.S. on Tuesday has any true meaning. Only those trying to rationalize the continuation of the hedge fund bubble in U.S. financial markets give it any consideration. The core CPI is the “WMD” of the Federal Reserve's inflation commitment. According to one of the pseudo gurus on CNBC that day, 40% of core CPI is the nonsensical housing measure. Did you buy or rent a house in the past month?Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Silver Market: May 2006 verses May 2007 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
Last May 2006, we saw the “sell in May and go away” crowd in action and wondered if we would see a repeat of this sell off in 2007. The truth is that we do not know what the herd will do but we do have a couple of observations that show that Silver is in a vastly different position this year to last year.
Taking a look at the chart for the time frame in question we can see a number of differences between May 2006 and May 2007.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
GOLD Analysis : May 2006 verses May 2007 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Bob_Kirtley
In May 2006 we saw the “sell in May and go away” strategy in action and wondered if we are to get the same again. The truth is that we do not know but we do have a couple of observations that we thought were worthy of your attention .
If we take a look at the chart for the period concerned we can see a number of differences between May 2006 and May 2007.
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Gold Market Update - COT Report Bearish / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
In the last update, published on or after 16th April, we expected gold to drop back from the $690 area due to the bearish COT structure, and that is what has happened. The latest COTs are not good news for bulls, with the Commercial shorts still at a high level - high enough to preclude a significant advance in the near future, and to maintain the risk of a substantial decline.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Silver Market Update - Double Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The silver chart should strike fear into the hearts of silver investors. There is no Ascending Triangle on the chart (from last May's highs), as some claim, instead the pattern is looking more and more like a large Double Top, with the second peak taking the form of a Head-and-Shoulders top.
Before anyone graciously goes to the trouble of enlightening the writer about the wonderful fundamentals for silver, let me say this - don't bother, I know about them - and so does the market, that's the trouble, they may already be fully discounted by the market.
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Sunday, May 13, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 13th May 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
It looked like gold just fell off the cliff on Thursday. On the two previous occasions that gold took such a fall we had a good several week rally within a day or two after. Are we getting one again?
GOLD : LONG TERM
Still no movement in the long term P&F chart despite the plunge on Thursday. So we wait another week before reviewing the chart.
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Sunday, May 13, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Precious Points: Don't Fear the Repo / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
Joe Nicholson writes “Even if the Fed ignites a rally on Wednesday, as it has in recent months, profit-taking, instead of frenetic new buying, is still the most probable ultimate result.” ~Precious Points: The Ennui on the Way , May 6, 2007
After starting off the week with a bit of a haircut, metals traded in a tight range until Wednesday afternoon, when the Fed statement sparked a rally that was soundly sold off the next day. Stocks ultimately closed roughly flat for the week, but on top of a rally that seems to have inspired new hope for Monday. The question is whether or not to believe the hype.
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Saturday, May 12, 2007
Inflation and Precious Metals, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Paul_Saxena
"In an ideal world with a stable monetary base (zero monetary inflation), prices of almost everything (with a few exceptions) would be in decline. That would be a sign of real economic progress…"
INFLATION/DEFLATION - Analysts and economists seem to be divided over this issue. According to some market observers (including me), we are living in a highly inflationary environment. After all, money supply growth is extremely strong in most countries (Figure 1) and this represents inflation.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
Gold Price Drop: A gift horse / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...This week's sell-off in gold was only to be expected. It opened Monday lower from 12 months earlier for the first time since 2001..."
WHAT TO MAKE of gold's 2.6% drop after failing to hold $690 for the third time in two months?
"The market sees a falling gold price as a gift horse," reckons Jon Bergtheil, head of metals at J.P.Morgan in London .
"The fundamentals are still very positive."
How positive exactly? Other than the price, nothing has changed since Monday. The gold market is still getting squeezed between tightening supply and rising long-term demand.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
“CORN BASED” Ethanol, part II the dominoes begin to fall! / Commodities / Ethanol
By: Ty_Andros
Eight to 12 weeks ago I penned a piece on CORN BASED ethanol in the “Fingers of Instability” series, it is a careful overview of the industry and its potential benefits (NONE) and pitfalls (you can access it at TedBits March 14, 2007 I strongly recommend you read it before beginning this commentary, it is time well spent), now in part two we take a look at the burgeoning problems we outlined in that piece. It is a disaster, written larger and larger like a boulder hitting water the waves emanating outward are killer waves to so much more. It is like a game of dominoes where once set in motion it is difficult to race ahead of the chain reactions to avoid further downfalls.
El Ninja, has emerged off the coast of South America . What does this mean? It means a wet spring and hot summer if history is correct. The wet spring has become a reality , we will see about the hot summer part of the forcast. Having grown up in the corn belt of Lincoln , Nebraska I understand corn fairly well. I still remember some of my earliest summer employment De tasseling corn. It was grueling work in the hottest part of the summer, but as a young boy I was very strong and it was always wonderful to finish the work and emerge with a POCKETFUL of cash. It was great money for me at the time.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
The Coming Explosion in Energy prices! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ty_Andros
NIMBY is defined as “not in my back yard” and is set to strike at your pocketbook “RIGHT NOW”. For decades the Democrats controlled Congress and in return for campaign contributions and support they worked with environmentalist, and trial lawyer constituents, passing laws and regulations which allowed them to manipulate the court system to basically block energy production in the United States, a refinery hasn't been built in over 30 years.
Energy discovery and development has been severely restricted in the United States . Internationally, Oil and Natural gas production have been nationalized, and the results are predictable, the more government becomes involved the less we get of whatever they get involved in. As they for the most part suck the life and money out of whatever they touch.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
China Buying Gold! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes : I have absolutely no doubt that someday, and soon, you're going to hear that China has been actively buying gold as part of its strategy to diversify its $1.2 trillion in cash reserves.
When you hear that news, every broker and analyst under the sun is going to tell you to buy gold and gold mining shares like crazy.
But don't listen to them because it will be too late. By the time the Chinese admit they have been buying gold, I can assure you, we will be much closer to the top of the gold market than the bottom.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Mining Merger Mania : Say it Three Times Fast / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Michael_K_Dawson
I was shocked last week when I read a report from Merrill Lynch stating that BHP Billiton could possibly be a target of a private equity bid. BHP Billiton is the largest mining company in the world. I have always envisioned it as the acquirer not the acquiree. However, with so much money at stake - anything is possible.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
GOLD THOUGHTS - Speculative Funds have created multiple buying opportunities for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Complacency over the demise of the U.S. dollar has allowed continued expansion of the yen and Swiss carry trade loans. Likewise, the imminent U.S. recession is being glossed over. This week the FOMC will confirm the ineptness of U.S. monetary policy by doing and saying either something or nothing, which may or may not be interpreted positively by some.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Global Economic Growth Outlook and Gold / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Neil_Charnock
It should be of some interest to the global investment community, in particular those that make money from the commodities boom and gold. I am referring to the performance of the global Resource Bourse - the ASX… because it is more heavily weighted in resource stocks than any other national stock market. Well that and banks too, very top heavy with BHP and RIO and some larger commodity producers.
This is a land of giant nuggets, massive mineralized belts and a disproportionate amount of mining activity, 3 rd highest global gold producer at present. See the chart below as an indicator, the ASX is booming and we enjoy a world class sovereign risk rating.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Is Apex Silver Mines a Buy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Roland_Watson
In the current issues of the Silver Analyst, we have been analyzing and ranking 63 stocks, which have been known, perceived or touted as silver plays in the last 4 years. Clearly some come out as losers while others look like being winners for the next surge in silver prices. One stock caught my attention recently for technical and fundamental reasons and that is Apex Silver Mines Ltd.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Miners Lobbied Department of Energy to Revive Uranium Prices / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
During the uranium bull markets of the 1950s and the 1970s, it was the United States Government’s policies which stimulated uranium production. Both actions were followed by multi-year rallies and brought about then-historical uranium price peaks. Each of the previous two bull markets ended when the federal government changed the existing policy.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2007
Commodities Market Wrap - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Gold gained $7.90 (1.16%) for the week, closing at $689.70. It was gold's highest close in 8 weeks. Its intraday high for the week was $693.20, and its intraday low was $670.00.
Below is gold's daily chart, which shows two support lines - the first is closest to the present price, and the second is further below.
Over the short term we are of the opinion that the first support line holding is the most probable scenario. If it holds then a test of the highs would be in order.
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