Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Do Tumbling Buybacks Signal Another Stock Market Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Mike_Whitney
Since the end of the recession in 2009, investors have borrowed a record amount of money to finance their stock acquisitions. According to the Financial Times, margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) peaked in February, 2014 at $466 billion and has only recently dipped slightly lower. That’s $85 billion more than 2007 at the peak of the bubble. (Below: Margin debt tends to trace the trajectory of the markets fairly closely, although it’s a poor indicator of a market “top”.)
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Has the FTSE Stock Market Index Put in a Major Top? / Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market
By: WavePatternTraders
The strong decline on the FTSE over the past few weeks may have come as a surprise to many traders but for us it was expected. It really could not have gone any better for members. I have been warning members for a number of weeks to expect a strong reversal and a crash style move, although we have been preparing for a strong decline; members have also been trading the upside, as before members could trade the downside we need to see the 6900 area tested.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
Stock Market Primary IV Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
One impressive rally this week! The week started off at SPX 1887. After a notable pullback to SPX 1882 the market rallied straight up to 1949 by Wednesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 1927 on Wednesday, the market rallied to 1965 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 3.35%, the NDX/NAZ gained 5.60%, and the DJ World index gained 3.10%. On the economic front things were not as rosy, as positive reports nudged out negative ones. On the uptick: existing home sales, the CPI, the FHFA index and leading indicators. On the downtick: new home sales, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is FOMC week! Plus we get reports on Q3 GDP, the PCE and the Chicago PMI.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Ebola Has Nothing To Do With The Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Austin_Galt
The stock market recently experienced a big fall and a lot of this was attributed to the Ebola virus entering the United States for the first time. This is nonsense. Absolute nonsense! Ebola has nothing to do with the market. It is moves in the market that require a reason. Whatever reason we attribute to a market move is just something to make us feel all warm and fuzzy inside. This time it was Ebola's turn.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
The Gallery of Crowd Behavior: Goodbye Stock Market All Time Highs / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
By: Doug_Wakefield
"Complex Systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks and accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth, May/June 2011 issue of Foreign Affairs.
Saturday, October 25, 2014
Stock Market Do Or Die Dead Ahead.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
When a market corrects hard there is only one normal way retrace the move back up to unwind oversold conditions and test lost 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages. You take weeks to do it, and you do it slowly and gradually without any large gap ups. The S&P 500 now has three gap ups with two of them over a ten handle. Very unusual for a back test and makes you wonder just what's going on. It's basically almost a v bottom for now. On top of that we have MACD crosses on the daily-index charts from very low positions, which, of course, is far from a bearish set-up. With all of this I remain open. I thought for sure there would be another large, hard move lower in the market and that may very well still be the case.
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Saturday, October 25, 2014
Stock Market Buy the Dip or Sell the Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
I’ve been around a long time, through many economic and market cycles, and I don’t recall a time when the bull/bear debate had such strong arguments on both sides.
The bullish case:
· The economic recovery from the Great Recession continues.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market Fear and Panic Fractal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Late yesterday afternoon I wrote an email entitled “Panic Cycle Shift.” Make sure you read it if you haven’t yet done so.
Early in September I suggested that the market would have 43 “up days” followed by 43 “down days”. That is still correct. Remember that I am referring to calendar days. Now convert that to market days and the result is 30-31 trading days, depending on the placement of weekends and holidays.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market and Reality Disconnected / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The behaviour of financial markets these days is frankly divorced from reality, with value-investing banished. Markets have become distorted by Rumfield-knowns such as interest rate policy and "market guidance", and Rumfield-unknowns such as undeclared market intervention by the authorities. On top of these distortions there is remote investing by computers programmed with algorithms and high-frequency traders, unable to make human value-assessments.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
US Stock Market Top Is Now In Sight / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Submissions
Dr. David J Harris writes: SUMMARY:
- In June, the DJIA index signaled that a significant US market top is near and will be reached in the next few weeks or months.
- In July, a new market timing model calculated that the market top is likely to occur in either, the last two weeks of July, a seven week window covering the last four weeks of October and first three weeks of November, or the four week window covering the last two weeks of December and first two weeks of January.
- Analysis of previous market tops and market bottoms shows that these windows of opportunity are close to 100% accurate.
- The market timing model determines that the resulting market drop is likely to be at least 12% and could be as much as 33%.
- Price projection analysis indicates that a rally is possible in late December and that the likelihood of a market top at year end is slightly greater than the likelihood of a market top in October or November.
Friday, October 24, 2014
Institutional Investors Fish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Large and/or institutional investors, your pension funds, your market funds, you name them, have one glaringly obvious and immense Achilles heel that they very much prefer not to talk about. That is, they MUST invest their funds, in something, anything, they can’t NOT invest. They are trapped in the game. They have to roll over debt, investments, all the time.
In today’s markets, they can move into Treasuries, as we see bond funds (and undoubtedly others) do recently, and while that’s already a sign of unrest in the ranks, at the same time it exposes the funds. And not only because everyone knows it won’t allow them to meet the targets they must meet. Oil, gas and gold are unattractive alternatives.
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Friday, October 24, 2014
Stock Market Panic Cycle Shift / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
You may recall that earlier this year I had identified several panic cycles. These cycles occur in discreet intervals divisible by 4.3 and multiples of 10.
For example, I had identified the panic Cycle from April 12 to July 5 (86 days) as a panic buying cycle. The next panic buying cycle occurred from August 7 to September 19 (43 days).
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Friday, October 24, 2014
SPX Stock Market Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
This afternoon at 1428 hours the SPX peaked and reversed. What is significant about this is that the turn from the bottom was at 1327 hours on October 15, giving us 6 market days in between. The grand total is 43 hours and this may be a print high.
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Thursday, October 23, 2014
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Sharp Rebound as Investors Take Short-Term Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,975 and profit target at 1,875, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Euro, USD, Gold and Stocks According to Chartology / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
Lets start off the Wednesday Report by looking at several currencies that broke out today. As you know the Eruo has been one of the weakest currencies out there. Today's breakout of a bear flag confirms there is more downside to come. This first chart is a daily look which shows the Euro formed a H&S top in the first half of this year and broke down sharply in late July. The Euro has been chopping out the blue bear flag for most of October which broke down today with a breakout gap.
Thursday, October 23, 2014
Why You Should Always Be Invested in the Stock Market (Even Now) / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: On the heels of the worst volatility in nearly 20 years, and more “crash talk” than we’ve heard maybe ever, it’s starting to look like a smart time to hit the eject button and get out of the markets altogether.
In fact, that’s probably the most common question I’m hearing these days:
“Do I really want to be in stocks right now?”
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
The Inevitability of QE / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Clif_Droke
A swan dive in commodity prices followed by the latest stock market correction has investors talking about the “D word” once again. References to deflation abound in the news while economists seriously discuss the possibility of a global economic recession. What, they ask, will it take to arrest the slowdown in the euro zone and China and prevent its coming to U.S. shores? Why central bank intervention, of course!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Stock Market Turn at Pi / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has broken beneath the lower trendline of its second (lower) Orthodox Broadening top, triggering that formation and giving us a lower target at 1493.80. It has also broken the Ending Diagonal trendline, giving us a minimum decline to 1820.66.
What is more interesting is that the rally turned at almost exactly 1885 minutes from bottom to top. Divide by 60 and we have 31.416 hours…Pi.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Currency War - How to Profit from a Stronger U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / US Dollar
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: The Fed plans to wind down its asset purchases this month, but Japan and the United Kingdom are still buying, full swing.
Meanwhile, the European Union is just looking to get started.
And, while the Fed is expected to begin raising rates next year, Europe and Japan recently pushed theirs below zeroas deflation appears to be the bigger threat.v
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Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Banks Hold Treasuries and Make Loans / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2014
By: BATR
Ever since the 2008 financial collapse, banks have reduced their lending while accumulating U.S. Treasuries. On the surface placing capital into the safest depositor may seem prudent. On the other hand, Why Big Banks Are Suddenly Interested in Talking to You Again? According to Inc, “After years of turning away small-business borrowers, the country's largest banks are now granting one out of five loan applications they receive. The 20 percent benchmark represents a post-recession high for big banks (assets of $10B+). Further, small banks have been approving more than half of the funding requests they receive.”