Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Big Profits in the Big Difference Between a Correction and a Stocks Bear Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Michael E. Lewitt writes: The current downdraft in stock prices has understandably sent the happy faces on CNBC running for cover as they try to figure out what went wrong.
After all, the U.S. economy is growing and the Federal Reserve has made it clear that interest rates won't be raised until the middle of next year. How could stocks have the temerity to sell off?
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Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Stock Market Just Not Excited....Rocks Lower.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
It's now one of those times when the market has decided it's time to unwind froth that has been built up over an eight-month period. When a market wants to unwind it finds a way to do so, but it's never going to be straight down. We are down approximately 6% off the top but a lot of it has been merciless selling without allowing the bulls to breathe. That's the best way to get those who are agnostic to turn bearish and for those who are bullish to turn at least agnostic. It removes the bullishness we've been seeing for too long. Ultimately we need to get more bears since we have seen a strong move down in bulls, but nothing even close to removing the bears. Coming in to last week the bears were still near historic lows.
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Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Investment Myth - Wars are bullish/bearish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: EWI
Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market
You may remember that after the 2008-2009 crash, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did they fail?
And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?
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Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Suddenly, We Have Problems / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: John_Rubino
A rising stock market, like a rising tide, can cover a multitude of interesting and/or scary things. If the finance guys who really know what’s going on are buying, then the disturbing stories that lead each evening’s news must be manageable. And we, in general, must be okay.
But let the market fall a bit and those headlines suddenly begin to seem both oppressive and really, really numerous. And maybe we’re not okay after all.
To take just a few of the issues that, in the wake of the recent equity correction, now loom large:
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Monday, October 13, 2014
Stock Markets Get Ugly – and May Be Getting Uglier / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Understanding what happened to the stock market last week is really, really important.
That’s because we’re at a place in time where it’s possible for time to go backward…
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Monday, October 13, 2014
Cycle Failures Point to a Stock Market Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Bob_Loukas
The equity markets are finally seeing action that has even the most hardened bulls running scared. In the past, I’ve been quick to dismiss selling periods – Cycle Lows – as natural regression-to-the-mean events. In a bull market, an oscillating Cycle pattern of two steps forward and one step back is what drives an asset higher. But this time is different…two steps back is completely out of character. So much so, that I now believe that the 3.5 years bull market is now in serious trouble.
Monday, October 13, 2014
Stock Market Corporate Q3 Earnings Horror Show / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Michael_Pento
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global growth forecast for both this year and next, highlighting among other things, the threat of weakening demand in the Eurozone and a slide into deflation. This comes after consumer price growth in the euro zone slipped again in September, coming in at just 0.3 percent.
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Monday, October 13, 2014
U.S. and World Stock Markets Chartology / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Rambus_Chartology
I'm going to divide this Weekend Report up into two parts, the stock markets and the precious metals complex. Both of these markets are on the move right now so we need examine them for clues to see if this is just a short term trading strategy or something more long lasting. Lets start with some US stock markets that had a rough week with many indexes breaking below their 200 dma.
I was first able to build out this rising wedge on the Dow Jones when it put in the August low that formed a small inverse H&S bottom at reversal point #4. It then rallied back up to the top trendline of the rising wedge at 17,300 where it found resistance. As you can see, Friday's move, closed below the bottom rail and the 200 dma. This is negative price action. We now have a clear line in the sand that is the bottom rail of the rising wedge. A backtest would come in around the 16,725 area which will represent critical resistance.
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Monday, October 13, 2014
Stock Market Extended Their Sell-Off – Will Downtrend Continue? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified at this moment. We will close our profitable short position with entry price of 2,000.5 (on August 27th, S&P 500 index) at the open of today’s trading session (cash market), as the S&P 500 is reaching our potential profit target of 1,900.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, October 13, 2014
Stock Market Intermediate Downtrend Confirmed / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - In 1932 and 1974, the 40-yr cycle was responsible for protracted market weakness. The current phase is due this year but where is the weakness? Has man (Federal Reserve) finally achieved dominance over universal rhythms or has it simply delayed the inevitable?
Intermediate trend - We are looking for the move from 1905 to end, after which a much more serious correction should start. (It has probably started!)
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Sunday, October 12, 2014
Is the Stocks Bull Market Over? Dow Trend Forecast into End January 2015 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market has had an nightmare roller coaster ride during the past 2 weeks that this week saw one of the best days of the year for the Dow (Wednesday +275) immediately followed by the worst day of the year (-335) the effect of which is to literally grind the strength out of the stocks bull market rally of 2014 with stomach churning moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over! Which has been regurgitated at length by the mainstream media and BlogosFear backed by supporting reasons coalescing around expectations that the U.S. Fed is to bring QE to an end this month and signal that interest rate hikes are just around the corner, all of this despite the FACT that stocks actually do quite nicely during the early years of a RATE hiking cycles! In fact its rate CUTS that stocks bulls need to worry about for they signal WEAKNESS ahead. Then there’s China weakness, Europe recession, ISIS and not forgetting EBOLA! So plenty of doom for the bears to play pick and mix with for reasons why End Time is here!
Sunday, October 12, 2014
Is a Recession Imminent? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2014
By: Christopher_Quigley
The stock market is at a facinating juncture at the moment. Currently there is a monumental battle going on between the bulls and the bears, as they both try to ascertain whether the American economy is going to go into a recession. This fear has been brought about by the official ending of the Bernanke policy of financial repression i.e. artifically induced low interest rates caused by the introduction of Quantitative Easing. To guage whether a recession is on the cards let us look at two of my favourite recession indicators: the Chauvet/Piger Recession Indicator and the NYSE Advance-Decline Line.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Stock Market Primary IV Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another wild and volatile week. The week started off calm enough, for this market, with a continuation rally gap up on Monday as the SPX hit 1978 in the first few minutes. Then the market declined to a slightly lower low for the downtrend at SPX 1925 by Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, however, the market rocketed to SPX 1970 just before the close. Then after a quiet opening on Thursday the market gave it all back and made new downtrend lows on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.9%, the NDX/NAZ lost 4.2%, and the DJ World index lost 2.8%. Economic reports for the week were light, but decidedly negative. On the downtick: consumer credit, export/import prices, the WLEI and investor sentiment. On the uptick: wholesale inventories. Next week we get the FED’s Beige book, retail sales, industrial production, reports on housing, and it’s options expiration Friday.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Can the Fed Come To the Rescue Again If Needed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
My concerns about high market valuations, excessive investor euphoria, the Fed eliminating its QE stimulus, growing economic woes in euro-land and so forth, became more serious when my firm’s technical indicators triggered a sell signal on July 31.
As readers know, we had been cautious, expecting a 15% to 20% correction at some point, to a low in the October/ November time-frame. With the July 31 sell signal on the technical indicators, we put 20% of our portfolio in initial downside positions in inverse etf’s.
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Saturday, October 11, 2014
Stock Market Gives It Up..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
In a big way. This was inevitable. The market couldn't stay up as it was forever based on the degree of froth it was dealing with on a daily basis for many, many months. Actually since late February. Froth can take a market higher than anyone thinks possible, but it is amazing how fast the carnage can come. How fast things actually fall. Months of upside can be wiped out in days or weeks. The grind to the upside seemingly never happened when you look at how fast those grinding gains are wiped out. This is how corrections and bear markets work. They are very intense. They create tremendous emotion. Fear ramps very quickly.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Looking for a Minor Pivot Low Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is still lower in the Premarket. I am referring to the daily SPX chart to show the next levels of support. They are the mid-Cycle support at 1911.38 and the 200-day Moving Average at 1904.86.
The original reason for calling for a bottom today is that the Trading Cycle (~60-64 days) is due. However, the SPX is in a Panic Cycle (43 days), so today’s low will be a lesser Pivot, not a major low.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Global Stock Market Shock as "Captured" System Starts to Crack / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: GoldCore
This week has seen some market volatility (see VIX Chart) reminiscent of the functioning market from days of old. The markets are spooked, bad news is overtaking good news and bearish views are becoming vogue. We are seeing a titanic battle taking place between the various bull and bear camps and they are starting to unleash some serious firepower.
The sleepy volumes of late have ticked up appreciably, and small investors are shifting in their seats nervously. The secret that no one really wants to admit (especially while they are making money) is that the recent stock market rally is a gargantous fraud. It has very shaky foundations indeed, propped up on pillars of monetary jelly. At its core is a massive money creation machine which is utterly unaccountable and unelected and a very select credit distribution system.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
The Stock Market Cycle’s Slippery Slope / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Harry_Dent
Will this bubble burst anytime soon? Will we have inflation or deflation? There are lots of questions being asked.
The inability for economists and financial analysts to understand the most basic principle of cycles is just beyond comprehension… especially since we’ve been in this bubble era since 1995. How could so many be arguing that we’re not in a bubble when we have seen one bubble after the next rise and then burst as they always do?
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Reset Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Recent evidence points increasingly towards global economic contraction. Parts of the Eurozone are in great difficulty, and only last weekend S&P the rating agency warned that Greece will default on its debts “at some point in the next fifteen months”. Japan is collapsing under the wealth-destruction of Abenomics. China is juggling with a debt bubble that threatens to implode. The US tells us through government statistics that their outlook is promising, but the reality is very different with one-third of employable adults not working; furthermore the GDP deflator is significantly greater than officially admitted. And the UK is financially over-geared and over-dependent on a failing Eurozone.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Forget What Stock Market Analysts Say, Both of These Omens Mean Big Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Sid Riggs writes: It's been 14 trading sessions since the financial media was abuzz with the fact that the Russell 2000 Index experienced a Death Cross. That is to say, its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) trended below its 200-day SMA. The coverage was all about why the Death Cross spelled impending doom for small-cap stocks and, by extension, the entire stock market.
In fact, in all of the Death Cross commentary I saw on television and read on the Internet there was no mention of historical performance after a Death Cross. None! Just a lot of hyperbole about why we should be concerned.
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