Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Saturday, May 02, 2015
Stock Market Giving A Pass? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
There really is no other way to explain it. Earnings have been terrible this quarter. To go along with that theme almost all of the economic reports from retail sales to the ISM Manufacturing Report have been poor at best. So why isn't the market crashing out is the question many are asking. Before today we saw a recent sell off, which hit the Nasdaq to the tune of 199 points. That's good selling. 4%. Today we saw the market shoot back up off an oversold sixty-minute event from that selling. While some buying should have been expected based on oversold, the strong move higher caught many off guard.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 01, 2015
Stock Market 2015 Top May be in Cyclical Harmony with 1929 Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Do you sometimes turn a question over and over in your mind…and suddenly the answer comes to you? That was my experience as I kept asking the question…”Why did the market top come on April 27?”
I had done shorter-term calculations and arrived at the 7.525 year (90.3 months + 7 days) calculation from the peak in 2007. By the way, the 2007 high was also 7.525 years from the March 23, 2000 market peak.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 01, 2015
Stock Market Kondratieff Waves and the Greater Depression 2013- 2020 update / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
In February 2012 I wrote an essay on Kondratieff waves (K waves). At that time based on the teaching of Nikolai Kondratieff it appeared that the world economy was in the middle of a Kondratiev winter or “greater recession”. (See chart below).
The K wave is a 60 year cycle ( a year or so) with internal phases that are sometimes characterized as seasons: spring, summer, autumn and winter:
Friday, May 01, 2015
Stock Market Broadening Tops Hidden in Plain View / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Sometimes the traditional trendline analysis hides the unusual but valid crash formations. I must admit that I was slow in picking this up and only “saw” the formation after I had erased some of the other analysis.
What came out at me was the Megaphone formation that I had expected to be there at this juncture, but couldn’t see it. The Orthodox Broadening Top confirms the larger Broadening Wedge that has been there so long that you can easily miss it. In fact, I was beginning to wonder about its validity.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Why Stock Market Investors Are Ruining America / Stock-Markets / Investing 2015
Alexander Green writes: Economic inequality - the fact that a small percentage of Americans have so much more than the rest of us - has gotten a lot of press in recent months.
You are a big part of the problem.
I say that because this column is written by and for investors. Nothing exacerbates economic inequality like successful investing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Stock Market Sell Signal is Getting Stronger / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
SPX bounced off the 50-day Moving Average early today. Overhead resistance is now at 2100.54. Once the retest fails, the 50-day is also likely to fail. This will confirm the sell signal in the SPX. The signal is an aggressive sell here and a confirmed sell beneath 2090.72.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Is the Fed about to Ignite the Stock Market Sell in May and Go Away Trade? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
First and foremost most fed meetings are positive for the stock market. The fed usually gives the market what it wants and the markets keep going up and away. The last fed meeting stocks rallied after the fed successfully jaw boned the dollar into submission. Since then stocks have rallied and are encountering major resistance at the top end of their trading ranges.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 30, 2015
GDP...Germany... Corporate Earnings....Froth Again...And The Fed....... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
A busy day. Lots and lots of bad news hit the market since last night. There were some really poor earnings reports from the likes of Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN), Panera Bread Company (PNRA), Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS), Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD), Twitter, Inc. (TWTR), United States Steel Corp. (X) to name just a few. I mean some major league slaughters here. All saying business is bad and getting worse. Like I said, there were many, many more than just those. Enough bad reports from everywhere, it seemed, to kill the market.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
The European Stock Markets Trend Is Up. We're In. Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Brian Hunt and Ben Morris write: If you're on the sidelines, don't wait any longer...
One of the strongest uptrends in the world is gaining ground... And it's making some investors lots of money. If you're following DailyWealth, you should be one of them.
We're talking about the uptrend in European stocks...
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
What's going on with The Dow Jones Transportation Index? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The best way we can describe the Dow Jones Transportation Index is that it is in a short term up trend, but in the lower half of a six month trading range.
The Transportation Index has been in a trading range since the end of last October (see the boxed in area). The Index is not very strong at this time, so it is in a higher-risk condition.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
The Stock Market and FED Day: What Next? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Last time I wrote that I believed that the market would fall into my next cycle projection low due on the FOMC meeting announcement day, April 29. It came early today and forced us to cover our short positions and go long (this market will keep you on your toes for sure). More than half the battle trading the market is recognizing when you are wrong.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate Financial Hurricanes Headed Our Way - No Where to Hide! / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
There are three financial hurricanes hurtling towards our country and most people are oblivious to the coming catastrophe. The time to prepare is now, not when the hurricane warnings are issued.
Hussman makes his usual solid case that stocks and bonds are as overvalued as they have ever been in the history of investing. People are under the false impression that bonds are always a safe investment. The fact that you are already getting a negative real return on bonds doesn’t seem to compute with math challenged Americans. Over the next ten years you will absolutely lose money in bonds.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Stock Market Delayed Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
The recent forecast for a high on April 15 looked good as the Dow stalled out the next day and then dropped almost 280 points on April 17. But according to the forecast for the next low the “tax-day top” was supposed to precede a decline into late last week. Instead, the market has rallied from the low on April 17.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
China’s Whacky Stock Market: How Long Can They Keep This Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
On April 16, the Shanghai Composite stock index rose 4.4% and Hong Kong’s market went up 7.9%.The next day, China’s exports got reported down 15% year-over-year… while the stock index rose another 2.9%, crossing 4,300. The news hasn’t changed, but now it’s over 4,500!
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Stock Market Valuations - Maybe I am Crazy / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
Relative vs. Absolute Value
As I watch valuations on stocks soar higher and higher into the stratosphere, I keep asking "where is the value?"
The problem for most is confusing "relative" value vs. absolute value. Stocks may be "cheap vs. bonds" but what does that matter if bonds are ridiculously overpriced?
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Why You Could Make ANOTHER 100% in China Stock Market Starting Now / Stock-Markets / China Stocks
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "Six months from now, China's market could double," Peter Churchouse wrote recently. "Or it could be down 50%."
The market could double... or it could fall in half. What's the use in that?
But Peter is making an important point...
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Big Moves Coming in the Stock Market! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
After reading today’s market action, I realized that we were due a bigger move down this week than I originally had anticipated. I have been short the market somewhat from last week from near 2120 SPX, but not heavily so. I sold my leveraged long positions I picked up around 2073/78 on April 17 at 2118 Thursday for a nice 8% profit (all verifiable). The reason I’m writing is to update what I’m seeing going forward, not to gloat over my recent market gains.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Still No Stock Market Breakout...Another Failure....AAPL Huge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
I am writing this report before the Apple Inc. (APPL) earnings report this evening. The market gapped up today and broke out above 2119, yet, again, this time reaching near 2126. It looked like the day was finally upon us, only to see those bears come in yet again to take the market below 2119 on a closing basis. Another good try by the bulls, but short-term very overbought conditions put the bulls back to sleep for now. They were excited. Folks were certain that the market had finally made the move, but it failed again. The failure doesn't have to be big picture. It can rock back up tomorrow on a solid AAPL report, or even if it's not and we fall some, the market can try again after things calm down for a bit.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 27, 2015
Stock Market Positive Expectations Ahead Of Apple's First Quarter Earnings Release / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, April 27, 2015
Stock Market SPX Index at Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - Bull Market
Intermediate trend - Is the 7-yr cycle sketching an important top?
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which ultimately indicate the course of longer market trends.
Read full article... Read full article...