Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Bulls are Rethinking Their Positions... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX just took out Friday’s low at 1918.46 and may be resuming the decline to 1880.00. What we witnessed on Friday was not a fourth wave pattern. The next alternative pattern may be an extended third wave. We must wait for the decline to give us more definition before labeling it, since there are several alternatives.

Monday, January 11, 2016

A Stock Market Bear Party Perhaps / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Bob_Loukas

This blog post is a continuation of the bearish theme I highlighted and posted for you back in December, titled: Game Changing Action

Maybe 2016 will be the year when equity bears finally get to celebrate. Although I wouldn’t call an end to the “buy the dip” era quite yet, the current market has a different type of feel and vibe to it. Many people believe – and there is supporting historical evidence – that as January goes for equities, so goes the year. Bulls should hope this axiom doesn’t hold in 2016. The month is still young, but the first week of January ushered in the worst 5-day start to a year in the S&P 500’s history. The last time the market started a year this poorly was 2008, and we know how that turned out.

Monday, January 11, 2016

SPX, TNX are Challenging their Cycle Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is higher but not critically so. There are five waves down from the underside of the 4.25 year trendline, but the middle wave is the shortest, suggesting a correction is underway and not the fifth wave. So we may expect a sharp, but short sub-Minute Wave (c) to resistance at the Cycle Bottom at 1954.03.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Mixed Expectations Following Last Week's Sharp Decline - Reversal Or Just Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Short Term Bottom at Hand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, I was looking for a nasty down week in the stock market, but up in GDX, GLD and NUGT into Jan 7th. GDX made a sudden reversal down on Jan 8th and is likely confined within a slight downward trend within an upwardly tilted bull flag until around Jan 21st. The stock market has either already bottomed or likely to do so no later than mid Monday Jan 11th.

Overall, I think we are in the early stages of a bear market that could take the SPX down to near 1000 or slightly lower by October. We are in year 8 of the commodity cycle low (last seen 2008, 2000, 1992, 1984, and 1976).

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Clive_Maund

Many were talking about the market crashing last week and the mainstream financial press were waxing hysterical, but as we will now see the crash hasn't even started yet. If the press got like that last week, imagine what they will be like when it really does crash - last week was just a "warmup", the 2nd and final warning, the 1st warning was the plunge last August.

On the 10-year chart for the S&P500 index, we can see that while the market did indeed drop hard last week, it still has not broken down from its Head-and-Shoulders top, the lower boundary of which is shown by the thin black line. When it does break down from the top area, there is an awful lot of air below it - it has a long, long way to drop, and the decline is likely to be precipitous.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Stock Market Nearing A Phase Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Still the Bull Market in jeopardy?

SPX: Intermediate trend – The index made a secondary top at the 2116 level and started another decline of intermediate duration. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Odds Favoring the Stock Market Bears This Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

After 1,200 points down on the Dow over six trading days, it made sense for the market to try and rally hard for a few days. After all, the daily charts were oversold with a 30 RSI, a number from which the indices have typically blasted off during sell-offs in this bull market.

Plus, the market got some good news out of China, which blasted up 2 percent overnight. Then came the jobs report, which was shockingly high. S&P 500 futures were already up, and jumped another 10 points on the news, as the market appeared ready for a big day.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Stock Market Rally Dies....1925 The Bull/Bear Line.....Slight Close Below.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

After 1,200 points down on the Dow over six trading days it made sense for the market to try and rally hard for a few days since the short- and long-term charts, or the 60 minute and daily charts, were oversold. 30 RSI on the daily index charts is where this market has blasted off from. It did hit 20 RSI on the last nasty plunge a few months back, but this bull market has laughed at the bears when it gets anywhere near 30 RSI on the daily charts except that one time. So what could be the solid catalyst for this rally was the question folks were asking.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Stocks Bull/Bear Market Inflection Point Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

Volatile week ends with a steep selloff. The week started at SPX 2044. Monday’s gap down took it to SPX 1990, before rallying with a gap up on Tuesday to 2022. Gap down openings on Wednesday/Thursday took the SPX to 1939. Then after a gap up opening on Friday to SPX 1960, then market dropped to end the week at 1922. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 6.10%, the NDX/NAZ lost 7.15%, and the DJ World index lost 6.10%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: the ADP and Payrolls, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, wholesale inventories, consumer credit, the WLEI and GDPn. Next week we get reports on Industrial production, the FED’s Beige book and Export/Import prices.

Friday, January 08, 2016

China Stock Market Crash Impact on Global Markets 2016 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chinese stock market already weak going into the end of 2015 has started 2016 off with a BANG, literally crashing on a near daily basis by hitting the 7% circuit breaker daily limit moves prompting a closure of the market, only to resume to the free fall the following morning as investors panic sold on the open attempting to sell before the circuit breaker kicks in resulting in a market that locked out most retail investors. This daily 7% limit down crashes prompted the Chinese authorities on Thursday to suspend the circuit breaker which should have the effect of alleviating the panic selling going forward.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Fed’s Stock Market Distortions Unwind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s financial markets changed dramatically entering this young new year, led by sharp stock selloffs and a mounting gold rally.  These are major reversals from recent years’ action.  The immediate catalysts were China’s plummeting stocks and ongoing yuan devaluation.  But the far larger underlying driver is the Fed’s first tightening cycle in a decade, which is just starting to unwind years of gross distortions.

Just a few weeks ago on December 16th, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee chose to hike the benchmark federal-funds rate for the first time since June 2006.  This was widely hailed as bullish for stocks, since it implied the US economy had improved enough to weather a new tightening cycle.  The flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) surged 1.5% that day, as traders rejoiced at the Fed’s gradualist approach.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Retracement Appears Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX has completed its retracement just 2 points above the 5-year trendline at 1960.47. This amounts to only a 26% retracement of the last decline. The decline must resume today, since this is only a minor Pivot day.

ZeroHedge reports, “This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Silver and S&P Stocks Index Similarities – Tops and Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the 30 year log scale chart of the S&P 500.  What I see:

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Pop-N-Drop? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket appears to be challenging its 60-minut3e Cycle Bottom resistance at 1971.86, very near the 38.2% retracement level. However, the Employment Situation Summary came out above expectations with a reported 292,000 new hires in December. On the surface it looked good, but average wages posted its first drop since 2014, according to ZeroHedge. So the jobs report is a mixed bag.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Is this the Wile E. Coyote Moment for Global Markets? Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Mario_Innecco

Transcript excerpt: it's been very interesting for a few days for the stock market and the markets in general
for the year 2016 I mean the Dow Jones today dropped three hundred and ninety
two points the Chinese stock market is dropped 7 percent twice this year
already even though the jack Chinese central bank is injected about twenty
billion dollars into the market
yeah you know looking back at last three or four years you know you like relax
and say all this is just a correction you know and I think there's a lot of
complacency still but this use worse than that this fuse bad I think you know

Friday, January 08, 2016

Where Is the Chinese Stock Market Headed? / Stock-Markets / Chinese Stock Market

By: Austin_Galt

The Chinese stock market, the SSEC, has tanked out of the block in 2016 and has investment professionals across the globe running around like headless chickens. So, let's take a deep breath and check out the charts. We'll take it from the top beginning with the yearly chart.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Crash Potential - Video / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Gary_Savage

I strongly advise not trying to pick a bottom in the stock market right now. The market is trying to move down into the 7 year cycle low. There is risk this could evolve into an 87 style crash event. Don’t try to be a hero and risk getting caught in that if it were to happen.

Friday, January 08, 2016

China Stock Market Crash Terrorises Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chinese stock market already weak going into the end of 2015 started 2016 off with a BANG, literally crashing on a near daily basis by hitting the 7% circuit breaker daily limit moves prompting a closure of the market, only to resume to the free fall the following morning as investors panic sold on the open attempting to sell before the circuit breaker kicks in, resulting in a market that has locked out most retail participants as they watch their stock portfolio valuations evaporate. This daily 7% limit down crashes prompted the Chinese authorities Thursday to suspend the circuit breaker which should have the effect of alleviating the panic selling going forward.

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Bill Gross Warns China Stocks Will Drop Another 5-6% Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the state of the global economy.

Gross said China's stock markets are likely to drop 5-6% on Friday: "Based upon the ETF in the United States, China is predicted to be down 5 percent or 6 percent…But China is an artificial market. All global markets are artificially based. And to the extent that we have a catharsis, I think, depends upon central banks basically giving up in terms of what they do. I don't think that's going to happen."