Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Stock Market Rally is Running Out of Time / Stock-Markets / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Odds are running high that the retracement rally may be over already. SPX appears to have completed a 23.6% retracement and may be ready to resume its decline. Note the reversal in the RSI at 50. This is another possible signal of a strong decline (Waves 3 or C).

Confirmation is not yet in. We must see the 2-hour chart show the SPX price level stay below 1927.65 and below the daily Cycle Bottom at 1926.30.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

A Bottom in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Ed_Carlson

My December 15 commentary included a forecast for a high in equities near December 24. The eventual high which led to last week's big sell-off came two trading days late on December 29. In this week's commentary we turn our attention to forecasting a bottom to the current decline in equities.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Stock Market Retracement is Already Underway / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX Premarket is higher by 18 points at present. However, it had declined in the overnight futures to the cash equivalent of 2006.00, then rallied higher from there, fulfilling the requirement for Wave b and launching Wave c.

The current price at 2043.60 is only the Fibonacci 23.6% level. As mentioned yesterday, 1970.03 (at the same level as the 4.25-year trendline) is the 38.2% retracement level.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Stock Market Last Hour Rally Puts Indices Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The stock market indices started the week off on a very negative note with a pop at the opening, an immediate 5-wave decline, and by mid-afternoon they reached their lows at 4220 Nasdaq 100 and 1901 S&P 500. A bounced ensued, followed by a pullback retest that was successful, and then an explosive market rally late in the session, taking the Nasdaq 100 from 4230 to 4300, 70 points straight up in less than 25 minutes, and the S&P 500 went from 1905 to 1930. They pulled back a little into the close, but finished positive on the session.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Stocks Bull Market Hanging By A Thread..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

The S&P 500 uptrend line from 2009 is hanging on by a thread. During the day it went far below only to take it back late but barely. 1925 the level, and with a close at 1923 that's a hold. You need a strong, powerful close below to get the market to fail fully. We are close, but no cigar yet. In time I do believe the market will lose this key level with force, but we may be too oversold short-term, although that is by no means a guarantee. Bear market stays oversold, but the levels of oversold here are unusual. Near zero stochastic's on many index charts. Some as low as 0.59 today.

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Stock Market Correction May be Underway... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

I would be remiss if I didn’t report this observation, so here goes…

It appears that the decline from December 29 may have completed a five-wave impulsive decline in 56 hours (8 days). This matches the time that it took to decline from November 29 to December 14 and is 1.62 times the length of that decline.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Bulls are Rethinking Their Positions... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX just took out Friday’s low at 1918.46 and may be resuming the decline to 1880.00. What we witnessed on Friday was not a fourth wave pattern. The next alternative pattern may be an extended third wave. We must wait for the decline to give us more definition before labeling it, since there are several alternatives.

Monday, January 11, 2016

A Stock Market Bear Party Perhaps / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market

By: Bob_Loukas

This blog post is a continuation of the bearish theme I highlighted and posted for you back in December, titled: Game Changing Action

Maybe 2016 will be the year when equity bears finally get to celebrate. Although I wouldn’t call an end to the “buy the dip” era quite yet, the current market has a different type of feel and vibe to it. Many people believe – and there is supporting historical evidence – that as January goes for equities, so goes the year. Bulls should hope this axiom doesn’t hold in 2016. The month is still young, but the first week of January ushered in the worst 5-day start to a year in the S&P 500’s history. The last time the market started a year this poorly was 2008, and we know how that turned out.

Monday, January 11, 2016

SPX, TNX are Challenging their Cycle Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is higher but not critically so. There are five waves down from the underside of the 4.25 year trendline, but the middle wave is the shortest, suggesting a correction is underway and not the fifth wave. So we may expect a sharp, but short sub-Minute Wave (c) to resistance at the Cycle Bottom at 1954.03.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Mixed Expectations Following Last Week's Sharp Decline - Reversal Or Just Pause? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Short Term Bottom at Hand? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Last week, I was looking for a nasty down week in the stock market, but up in GDX, GLD and NUGT into Jan 7th. GDX made a sudden reversal down on Jan 8th and is likely confined within a slight downward trend within an upwardly tilted bull flag until around Jan 21st. The stock market has either already bottomed or likely to do so no later than mid Monday Jan 11th.

Overall, I think we are in the early stages of a bear market that could take the SPX down to near 1000 or slightly lower by October. We are in year 8 of the commodity cycle low (last seen 2008, 2000, 1992, 1984, and 1976).

Monday, January 11, 2016

Stock Market Crash - Last Week was The 2nd and Final Warning... / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Clive_Maund

Many were talking about the market crashing last week and the mainstream financial press were waxing hysterical, but as we will now see the crash hasn't even started yet. If the press got like that last week, imagine what they will be like when it really does crash - last week was just a "warmup", the 2nd and final warning, the 1st warning was the plunge last August.

On the 10-year chart for the S&P500 index, we can see that while the market did indeed drop hard last week, it still has not broken down from its Head-and-Shoulders top, the lower boundary of which is shown by the thin black line. When it does break down from the top area, there is an awful lot of air below it - it has a long, long way to drop, and the decline is likely to be precipitous.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Stock Market Nearing A Phase Target / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Still the Bull Market in jeopardy?

SPX: Intermediate trend – The index made a secondary top at the 2116 level and started another decline of intermediate duration. 

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Odds Favoring the Stock Market Bears This Time / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

After 1,200 points down on the Dow over six trading days, it made sense for the market to try and rally hard for a few days. After all, the daily charts were oversold with a 30 RSI, a number from which the indices have typically blasted off during sell-offs in this bull market.

Plus, the market got some good news out of China, which blasted up 2 percent overnight. Then came the jobs report, which was shockingly high. S&P 500 futures were already up, and jumped another 10 points on the news, as the market appeared ready for a big day.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Stock Market Rally Dies....1925 The Bull/Bear Line.....Slight Close Below.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Jack_Steiman

After 1,200 points down on the Dow over six trading days it made sense for the market to try and rally hard for a few days since the short- and long-term charts, or the 60 minute and daily charts, were oversold. 30 RSI on the daily index charts is where this market has blasted off from. It did hit 20 RSI on the last nasty plunge a few months back, but this bull market has laughed at the bears when it gets anywhere near 30 RSI on the daily charts except that one time. So what could be the solid catalyst for this rally was the question folks were asking.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Stocks Bull/Bear Market Inflection Point Approaching / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Tony_Caldaro

Volatile week ends with a steep selloff. The week started at SPX 2044. Monday’s gap down took it to SPX 1990, before rallying with a gap up on Tuesday to 2022. Gap down openings on Wednesday/Thursday took the SPX to 1939. Then after a gap up opening on Friday to SPX 1960, then market dropped to end the week at 1922. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 6.10%, the NDX/NAZ lost 7.15%, and the DJ World index lost 6.10%. Economic reports for the week were mostly negative. On the uptick: the ADP and Payrolls, plus the trade deficit and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, wholesale inventories, consumer credit, the WLEI and GDPn. Next week we get reports on Industrial production, the FED’s Beige book and Export/Import prices.

Friday, January 08, 2016

China Stock Market Crash Impact on Global Markets 2016 - Video / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Chinese stock market already weak going into the end of 2015 has started 2016 off with a BANG, literally crashing on a near daily basis by hitting the 7% circuit breaker daily limit moves prompting a closure of the market, only to resume to the free fall the following morning as investors panic sold on the open attempting to sell before the circuit breaker kicks in resulting in a market that locked out most retail investors. This daily 7% limit down crashes prompted the Chinese authorities on Thursday to suspend the circuit breaker which should have the effect of alleviating the panic selling going forward.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Fed’s Stock Market Distortions Unwind / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

The world’s financial markets changed dramatically entering this young new year, led by sharp stock selloffs and a mounting gold rally.  These are major reversals from recent years’ action.  The immediate catalysts were China’s plummeting stocks and ongoing yuan devaluation.  But the far larger underlying driver is the Fed’s first tightening cycle in a decade, which is just starting to unwind years of gross distortions.

Just a few weeks ago on December 16th, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee chose to hike the benchmark federal-funds rate for the first time since June 2006.  This was widely hailed as bullish for stocks, since it implied the US economy had improved enough to weather a new tightening cycle.  The flagship S&P 500 stock index (SPX) surged 1.5% that day, as traders rejoiced at the Fed’s gradualist approach.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Stock Market Retracement Appears Over / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It appears that SPX has completed its retracement just 2 points above the 5-year trendline at 1960.47. This amounts to only a 26% retracement of the last decline. The decline must resume today, since this is only a minor Pivot day.

ZeroHedge reports, “This week is simply the worst we had in recent history for markets, RBS exclaims, the worst ever start to the year for The Dow, the worst since 1999 for S&P and the second-worst for credit since 2008. Worst still is, they think there’s more weakness ahead and that many fundamental risks will continue to haunt markets. Why? Simple! Investors drank too much policy kool-aid last year.

Friday, January 08, 2016

Silver and S&P Stocks Index Similarities – Tops and Bottoms / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the 30 year log scale chart of the S&P 500.  What I see: