Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Black Tuesday Stock Market Crash Anniversary and a Return to Big Government / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
October 29, marks the 80th anniversary of the Stock Market Crash of 1929, the event which most historians point to as the beginning of the Great Depression. On Black Tuesday, traders dumped 16 million shares in one day sending the markets into freefall. In the months that followed, stocks rallied--sometimes for long periods at a time--but the underlying economy continued to deteriorate as consumers curtailed spending and cut back sharply on credit. As a result, hundreds of banks were shuddered, thousands of businesses failed, and unemployment soared to 25 percent. Public confidence plunged and the economy slipped into a decade-long slump. Tariffs were thrown up, international trade slowed to a crawl, and shanty towns began to sprout up across the country.
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Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Stock Market Bears Dismantling the Rally Step by Step / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
That's how the bears will have to do this. There is no straight down free fall into oblivion coming to a bear market near you. Step by step as we take on each level of support. We get there and get oversold. We bounce. We fall again and we bounce Usually on the third try we get through, but we have so many levels of support close by it's hard for the bears to gain any real momentum. 1080/1074/1060/1047. An average of approximately 1% between levels of strong support. Not exactly what the bears want to deal with but that's the game we're playing here. What's truly amazing is that each level puts up such a strong fight. Not a single one just goes away on the first try. That's how strong this bull market is.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Goldman Sachs, Hazardous to Underweight Brazil, But Hold the Big Mac / Stock-Markets / Brazil
Despite a 73% increase in the Bovespa this year and the country raising taxes to try to keep out an avalanche of Western central bank liquidity [Oct 20, 2009: Ben Bernanke's Money Printing Parade Forces Brazil to Slap a Tax on Outside Investors], Goldman Sachs still says the shares are cheap. Certainly if EPS can grow 40%+ next year they might have a point, and who can argue against the fact this is one of the most attractive markets in the world.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Cautious on SPX Stock Market Index / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Although the equity markets really are not doing much, I feel very uptight right now. Why? Take a look at the enclosed daily chart of the S&P 500. Let's notice that today marks the third session of weakness, and the decline has pressed slightly beneath the rising 20 DMA (now at 1070) AND, more importantly, is testing -- perhaps leaning against -- the Jul-Oct up trendline (1061.80).
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
S&P Stock Market Index Has Topped Out for the Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?
There is compelling evidence that we may have seen a top in the S&P index. In my new short video, I show you the evidence that I have found which may point to the fact that we are going to see a correction in this index.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Rydex Stock Market Timers Buying The Dip / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
The Rydex market timer, as a representative sample of investors, was buying yesterday's sell off.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Stocks Almost at the End of the Rally Pattern / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
Do you see the rising bear?
I’ve show the below bearish rising wedge to my readers several times. If you’re unfamiliar with this chart pattern, it occurs when the trading range shrinks as stocks rise higher. Typically these patterns precede SHARP moves downward. For that reason it’s extremely important to note when they occur.
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Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Bears Trying to Break the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Not exactly blowing the bull's house down but trying. A start. They were successful in at least taking the S&P 500 below 1074, and they did it without a gap down, although, that is actually the weakest way to do it because there's no wall of resistance directly above. However, props to the bears for finally getting things going their way. The bulls now have to find the right tonic of news, and fast, to get this market back over the 20-day exponential moving averages and above the S&P 500 gap or they're toast for a while. A gap down tomorrow morning would put a nail in the coffin of the bulls for at least the near term. A loss of support today followed by a gap down that holds tomorrow and it'll be a short all rallies market. The bears are now more in control than the bulls so set up your trades that way.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Fall of the U.S. Dollar on G-20 Finance Ministers Agenda / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
The G-20 finance ministers meet in Scotland on November 6th and 7th, and they will all be bleating about the fall in the dollar. France started this week, and the others will follow. Their currencies are rising in value and they do not like it.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Closing the Doors on Return Chasers: Mutual Fund Inflows Create Problems / Stock-Markets / Investing 2009
Like a torrential downpour can overwhelm gutters, flood streets and generally create the kind of havoc only water can, too much money flowing into mutual funds can also leave a mark on both new investors and those of record.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Markets Sudden Plunge on Obama Economic Policy News / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
This morning's sudden sell off on no apparent news must have the Obama economic team in a furor. After 7 months of unrelenting buying, the stock market actually went down. It was a terrifying sell off as the S&P500 lost 2% of its value in less than 60 minutes. This put the 401 k's and IRA's of average Americans at risk. Something must be wrong. What that something was wasn't readily apparent, but the economist in chief was going to get to the bottom of it.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Morgan Stanley Says Stock Market Rebound Rally in Last Stage; Prepare for Fallout from Tightening / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
These words from Morgan Stanley's chief European equity analyst, Teun Draaisma are particularly interesting as we (the collective) sit awash in a world of government intervention and central bank liquidity, while ignoring the fact it is not endless. Fascinating chart below as well.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Market Fun, Pi, Phi and Armstrong Cycle / Stock-Markets / Cycles Analysis
Fun with market dates! I was reading Marty Armstrong today and decided to play with his 8.6 year cycle—3141 days to be exact.
Lets start our count from October 11th 2007 top.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Market Intra-Day Reversal Special Report / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Today's intraday reversal in the equities markets follows a pattern that has been established of late of selling into rallies. Key support levels have been broken to the downside and without a late day recovery a close below those levels will likely usher in a significant pullback.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Not Inflation Or Deflation Or Even Stagflation But Speculation / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Call it what you want, the primary condition our condition is in is not inflation, or deflation, or even stagflation for that matter, although it’s much closer than the other two definitions in describing the macro. Why would the term stagflation better describe macro-conditions? Answer: Because the mature state of globalization that guarantees us a constant state of overproduction moving forward, which depresses prices, is being countered by monetary inflation, which has increased certain prices, but primarily only those under government influence, leaving the rest of the economy sluggish. And it gets worse when one realizes our fiat currency monetary system is also mature from this perspective as well, with gambling now the backbone of non-government activities within aged economies (US, Europe, etc.), which cannot go on indefinitely.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Time for New Stock Market Leadership? / Stock-Markets / Economic Recovery
The market has rallied dramatically since the March 9 low, with the biggest beneficiary of this rally being low-quality companies.
This intuitively makes sense, given that companies with the most troubled outlooks are the ones most likely to have a strong recovery when the dire outcomes predicted at the bottom of the crisis failed to transpire.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Valuation 101: How Warren Buffet Does It; And Brooksley Born Wanted It Done / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Valuations
A while back I caught a clip of Warren Buffet being interviewed by a rather tiresome over-bubbly television star; who brightly asked him a really-really profound question that the scriptwriter had obviously spent all night dreaming up:
“So Mr. Buffet, how do you know if something’s a good investment or not?”
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Calling a Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bear Market
It ain’t over til it’s over, but as a speculating man, I’ve been betting that we’ve reached a market top in the U.S. and that that top may well be signaling the onset of a double dip U.S. recession in one to two quarters.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Stock Market Hits Major Resistance at Gap / Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading
Update on the SPY's one year gap ...
It was just a little over 1 year ago, October 3rd. of 2008, when the SPY gapped down sharply. That gapped remained open until October 15th when it was finally closed.
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Monday, October 26, 2009
Financial Markets Wedge Patterns Everywhere Means All Stocks May Sink / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2009
This is a follow on to my October 13th 2009 posting , British Pound A Major Disaster Just Waiting to Happen? and my market update on October 19th, and deals with the markets as they stood as of last trade Friday October 23rd.
USD – Cl 75.47 - Price moves on Friday suggest that the next couple of weeks will be important not only for the USD but for all markets. If the large downward wedges in the USD charts are indeed what they appear to be then we should soon see a sharp confirming break upside to at least 77 - 79 for the first move. Contrary to this, a break below the 75 support to say below 74 could change the whole scenario.