Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, June 23, 2010
DJIA's 200-Day Moving Average: Will the Dow stay above or below this demarcation line? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Moving averages are one of the most widely followed indicator in technical analysis. Simply put, when the price of an index or stock stays above a particular price moving average line on a chart, that price level serves as support -- a level where buyers reside. If the price falls below a moving average line and "can't" break through from the underside, this price level is a line of resistance -- a price level where sellers hover. That's an easy explanation of moving averages for you.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Which Way Wednesday - Fed Interest Rate Decision Edition / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
FOMC rate decision at 2:15, that’s all that matters.
Sure no one on the planet expects anything other than the Fed holding steady but it’s what they say when they do nothing that matters. On April 28th there were a grand total of 17 different words from the March 16th statement but they were, apparently, the wrong words and the market fell over 10% in the next 30 days. The big changes in April were the Fed seeing improving labor markets (data later refuted that) and they gave no indication that rates would rise this year UNLESS the data improved. We’re still down 8% from 11,200 and our Omega 3 pattern tells us today will be an up day, which kept us from being too bearish yesterday even though most of our downside levels were broken.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Stocks Wait for US FoMC Meeting, What to Watch For… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
US equities closed weaker Tuesday, losing 1.6% to close at 1095. This is a significant fall but there could be worse to come. My technical analysts chums assure me that unless the S&P500 closes above 1126 tonight, the 50 day moving average will stab through the 100dma from above. If you believe in such things, and there are many who do, this is a rare bearish stocks signal (last happened in 2008). Even if it doesn’t happen tonight, unless S&P climbs at least 200 points it is inevitable by Thursday night they say.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Stock Market Next Two Weeks Will Set Up the Next Two Months / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Our call since the beginning of the year has been for a...
...August and October double bottom in the market in our 2010 Forecast. And while the future is sometimes predictable, that can all invert here - resulting in higher highs. So we're very cautious here as we're seeing sufficient energy in the market to produce more upside, we just need the market to release that energy.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Housing Numbers Burst the Recovery Bubble... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Don’t Give Up on U.S. Stocks Just Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: There's no denying that bearish investors have made their case in recent weeks. They are legitimately afraid that the economies of the United States and Europe will fade so much in the next few months that they will sink back into recessions punctuated by credit blowups and a resumption of a bear market for U.S. stocks.
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Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Stock Market Follows Through After 50 day Failure Yesterday.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Yesterday we saw the market gap up through 1119 or the 50-day exponential moving average. This is normally where right shoulder go to die. You get a move to and through the 50-day and then it tails down and fails overall to stay above at the close. You normally would expect the next day to be a rough day for the bulls but it didn't start out that way at all. We opened pretty flat and then moved up nicely with the Nasdaq up over 20 points. Surprising, but we all know what happens intra-day is truly meaningless.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Stock Market Ominous Signs! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
“Regulation was the obvious method of keeping corporations answerable to democracy, and not the other way around – but why trust public officials to regulate if they were all on the take?... The power of the railroads (today, banks) gave rise to demands for a stronger government to control them, yet this same power aroused fears that they would simply corrupt a strong government, and grow still more powerful.” --- T.J. Stiles in “The First Tycoon,” regarding the life of Cornelius Vanderbilt in 1860
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
European Stocks Trade Lower as Familiar Concerns Return / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
China’s de-peg from the Dollar over the weekend initially gave risk assets a shot in the arm Monday. But on closer examination the markets were seriously underwhelmed. Investors will want to see more evidence that China’s FX policy is taking a true turn rather than just a tactical ploy to get the G20 off their back and stop being called a currency manipulator in the US . Disappointing stock market action in late US hours suggested that China has provided too few details so far.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
China will allow Yuan to appreciate... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Five Financial Crisis Disasters Ahead / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes: Back when I had more time, I would occasionally play Oblivion, a video game. A game so addictive, it's been known to contribute to flunking out of colleges and the failure of marriages.
When persevering in a sword fight, your computerized opponents were prone to angrily muttering the phrase "Why won't you die, damn it!"
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Stock Market Nasty Reversal! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices suffered a very nasty reversal for Monday and closed not far off the session lows. Only a last 15-minute snapback rally brought the indices off the afternoon spike lows.
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Stock Market Failure At The 50's.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
And a nice head fake it was indeed. The Yuan news from overnight out of China got the futures rocking much higher than that news seemed to be worthy of, but hey, who is to argue with good futures when you're long on the market. The futures held all night and right up until the bell rang to open trading for the day. Once we gapped up the show was over for the bulls. A nice huge breach above that 50-day exponential moving average at S&P 500 1119. Sweet indeed, but if you looked at the daily charts such as I did, there was a major red flag sitting there in the form of extremely overbought stochastic's. Reading in the upper 90's is not where markets usually continue to rise from.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Summer Sun Beats Down on Wall Street / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
One good day in the equity markets covered an otherwise listless week as investors get a jump-start on the summer doldrums. While exciting, the 200+ point Dow rally did push the averages above some critical overhead resistance that needs to hold in the coming weeks to be genuinely an important change in psychology. The drama for the week was putting the CEO of BP in front on Congress to explain the company’s response to the spill.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
A Classic Stock Market “Fade The Gap” Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
“What’s so special about 1130? It’s downtrendline resistance and a 50% fibonacci level”
One look at the SPX chart below tells the story, all in a news driven pop based upon the Yuan.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Monday Stock Market Monetary Mark-Up - China Floats the World! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
I did not see this coming!
We have a major bump in the futures and I’m trying to decide if it’s deserved just because China says they will float the Yuan. Asia came on like gangbusters on the news and Japan was, of course, super thrilled that one of their biggest customers was going to have more buying power (in theory) as were the other Asian countries that export to China.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Must Watch Stock and Commodity Market Signals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2010
A couple times a year I like to give you what I call my roadmaps of the markets. They are charts based on actual signals from my computer models.
I watch these signals very closely because they tell me when a fork … speed bump … or U-turn is coming in the markets. They are critical signals, and they should not be ignored.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
China; Equities More Flexible Friend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
On Saturday, the Chinese central bank the PBoC issued a statement on exchange rate policy which has moved the goalposts & spawned today’s rally. In essence what the announcement boiled down to is an equity abandonment of the 2 year old peg to the Dollar and the resumption of exchange rate reform through a more flexible approach to the yuan by letting it gradually appreciate in a managed manner rather than a once off big bang revaluation. Global equities are rallying hard today on the prospect that any Chinese yuan appreciation will tame inflation and reduce the need for interest-rate increases.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Quadruple Witching and Dividends... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Trade Recommendations: Take no action.
Daily Trend Indications:
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Monday, June 21, 2010
Four Factors to Consider Before Determining Your View on Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: Stocks rose worldwide over the past week -- ranging from +2% in U.S. big caps to +6% in gold -- as investors swelled with sudden courage in response to positive reports on Chinese economy and glimmers of hope that European governments can get their financial houses in order.
The week's results erased four weeks of losses, including the despairing session that ensued on June 7 after a disappointing report on U.S. employment. Meanwhile, the result of the past 35 trading days, or seven calendar weeks, are still largely negative, ranging from a loss of 5.5% for U.S. stocks and -8.5% for Europe. Only gold stocks have eluded the smoke monster, rising 7% in the span.
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