Analysis Topic: Stock & Financial Markets
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Friday, July 08, 2011
A Financial Permanent Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
As the financial world breathed a collective sigh of relief as the Greek Parliament voted to impose further austerity measures on the people of Greece, I wondered aloud to no one in particular how many times we’d have to see this movie before people finally realize that this crisis is a permanent one. There are many analogies that we could use to illustrate what has gone on, but probably the best is a trauma patient coming into the hospital with a severed carotid artery. Instead of performing surgery and repairing the wound, doctors throw the unlucky fellow on a gurney with a piece of gauze taped over the incision. Every so often they check back in, throw another piece of gauze on it and walk out, never fixing the problem. That is precisely what is going on with regards to the Eurozone mess. And America’s too. Lots of tape and gauze with precious little in the way of real solutions has been the norm for quite some time now and there is no reason to think that this will change unless it is out of dire necessity.
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Friday, July 08, 2011
Investor Portfolio Preparation for the Coming Crises Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
“I’m Certain we will (experience another Crisis – Ed). It will come again.”Treasury Secretary Geithner, 5/17/11
“Wall Street banks have cut back on small business lending… [by] more than double the cutback in overall lending.… [Small business] options just keep disappearing.”Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the TARP Congressional Oversight Panel
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Friday, July 08, 2011
A Rare VIX Pattern is Appearing Again... / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Today's 12 month VIX chart shows a pattern that is fairly rare. This chart pattern has appeared a number of times in the past and has been pretty accurate. The pattern is where the VIX's support level is the bottom of a circle and the touch points follow the bottom of the circle. The difference I see is that the older patterns occurred over a longer period of time within the circle area.
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Thursday, July 07, 2011
How Antimicrobial Copper Could Save Thousands of Lives, Billions of Dollars / Stock-Markets / Healthcare Sector
David Zeiler writes: In less than two hours this material can kill 99.9% of most of the bacteria on its surface, including E.coli, influenza, staphylococcus and H1N1.
A recent four-year trial has shown that using it on such frequently touched hospital items as bed rails, IV poles, tray tables and nurse call buttons reduces infection rates by more than 40%.
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Thursday, July 07, 2011
What the Greek Debt Crisis Mean for Investors? / Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis
Kerri Shannon writes: With Greece on the brink of default - and hanging over the global economy like a financial sword of Damocles - investors the world over are asking themselves the very same question, day after day: Just what is the Greek debt crisis, and what does it mean to me?
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Thursday, July 07, 2011
The Macroeconomic Picture And The Stock Market, Massive Rally Wipes Out Losses / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
A massive stock market rally has wiped out a month's losses in a week, and is nicely represented by the below straight up move in % stocks above their 50MA from oversold to approaching overbought.
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Wednesday, July 06, 2011
Stock Market Staying Overbought.....Making Sense Of It All..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
It's not often you stay this overbought in a market on the short-term charts. There have been many attempts to sell things off, but once the RSI's get under 70, the buying starts right back up. This is only a once in a long while occurrence. The reasons for it are simple really. You're in a primary bull market until we can lose 1249 on the S&P 500 with some force. The bulls were able to defend this level a few times, and they have now cleared back over the critical 50-day exponential moving averages. Once you clear back over this critical resistance level turned support, the bulls get more aggressive on the buying due to the feeling of insurance that the 50's will hold. Only if they got taken back again by the bears would the bulls get less aggressive. In fact, with the reality that the bears lost the battle thus far, the bulls are feeling pretty good about themselves, and thus, will get back in new plays any time there's some decent selling, or even if it's not that decent it seems these days.
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Wednesday, July 06, 2011
Greek Debt Crisis Stock-Market Survival Strategies / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
If you want some stock-market-survival advice, pull up a chair and spare us a couple of minutes.
From late April to mid-June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted more than 900 points. That 7% stock-market decline - which included a six-week losing streak - accelerated talks of a new bear market and a double-dip recession.
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Wednesday, July 06, 2011
What the Stock Market Volatility Index, VIX is Telling Investors / Stock-Markets / Volatility
Shah Gilani writes: In the early ‘80s, when I was running a hedge fund from the floor of the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE), I was a market maker in OEX options. The OEX is the Standard & Poor's 100 Index. The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) was born from trading options on the OEX and from our desire to more accurately price risk.
The stock market volatility index (VIX) - or "fear gauge," as it's often called - has been giving off unexpectedly low readings in 2011.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Stock Market Remarkable Bounce From Oversold Levels / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Obviously last week was one of those you will remember for a long time, as the scope and ferocity of the bounce - light volume or not - was quite remarkable. While the front end of the week was a predictable oversold bounce on light volume heading to the end of the quarter, the action at the end of the week was more surprising.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Stock Market Rally Shows Bull Market Still Has Some Kick Left / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Jon D. Markman writes: U.S. stocks ripped higher every day of the past week following positive news on U.S. manufacturing, Greek sovereign debt and an absolutely epic amount of short-covering.
The past week's rally has shown at least that the spirit of the bull market still lives. It rarely pays to be bearish for more than a few weeks at a time, and even then only very selectively. So long-term investors need to keep their eyes on the on the horizon until sellers can prove their moxie.
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Tuesday, July 05, 2011
Stock Market Rally Overbought, Correction Likely / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Very Long-term trend - The continuing strength in the indices is causing me to question whether we are in a secular bear market or two consecutive, cyclical bull/bear cycles. In any case, the very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.
Long-term trend - In March 2009, the SPX began a move which evolved into a bull market. Cycles point to a continuation of this trend for several more months.
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Monday, July 04, 2011
Stock Market Flashing A Buy Signal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
I hope you fellow Canadians had a great Canada Day long weekend and Happy Independence Day to those south of the boarder!A couple weeks back on June 19th I posted my analysis on how the stock market was bottoming and that we needed a couple key sectors to participate before we would get a solid bounce. You can quickly review the charts here if you like: http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/....
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Monday, July 04, 2011
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis, Bear Rally? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
That is the question. Is this a Wave 2 or Wave B or a deeper or much deeper correction, or is this the beginning of a Wave 5 that will take us to new heights. My bottom line position is that this is the beginning of Wave 5 that will take us to a new high. I base this in part on looking at other indices, but will show you both sides of the argument.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
Stock Market New Uptrend ... Higher Highs Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
An eventful week as the US market had its biggest upsurge since early July 2010. Economic reports ended the week with a positive bias too: positives outpacing negatives 9 to 6. On the negative side: the monetary base, WLEI, construction spending, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence all declined.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
Stock Market On a Roll, FX Correlations / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Impressive is the best word to describe the rally, in what has became one of the biggest 5 days rallies in history, I had to go back to Nov 2005 to find anything remotely like it, although I was actively looking for the reversal. (read the last 2 articles) to see such a huge rally like that, I think blew most traders away, hence the word impressive gets randomly used, but in this case it fits well.
Unless you have been living in a cave for the past few days, the market has made mince meat of traders that never respected the trend change, its only after 3-4 days that traders are finally accepting the trend has changed.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
Stock Market Climbing Against The Herd....... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
Markets have a way of making everyone look bad or foolish. Just when you think one trend is firmly established, and there's no hope for the other side of the game, things turn. Euphoria can turn to despair and despair can turn to euphoria in the blink of an eye. Literally! When the market was pulling down hard, seemingly every day, the negativity could be felt everywhere by everyone. You could see it in people's faces and you could hear in their voices when confronting them on how things were going. The first thing they'd bring up is things look bad for me as my 401k, etc., is getting annihilated. They had a long look on their faces as if they just lost a dear one. People take the market seriously, and when it goes against them, they feel the pain. In the last two weeks the looks have changed as has the sense of well being. No longer in desperate straits they are now feeling a bit more euphoric, although cautious for sure.
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Saturday, July 02, 2011
Stock Market Summer Rally Arrived On Schedule! / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
It’s remarkable how consistently the market moves in seasonal patterns.
For example, it tends to make most of its gains in the winter months and experience most of its corrections in the summer months, as expressed in the old adage ‘Sell in May and Go Away’.
Friday, July 01, 2011
How A Credit Market Prices In Economic Recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2011
In a prior post I compared the 2007 SPX topping pattern to the current May 2011 high. The assumption being the US economy is on the verge of an economic recession now as it was in December 07 when the recession officially began. The similarities were unquestionable (chart below). The unknown is are we building point E. Those believing recession is at hand will say yes, those saying it is a soft patch will say no.
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Friday, July 01, 2011
Derivatives: A Capital Markets Gong Show For Whom The Bell Tolls / Stock-Markets / Derivatives
Back in early March, 2011 – PIMCO’s Bill Gross were calling for much higher rates and telling the world that they were selling U.S. Government Bonds.
PIMCO's Bill Gross Says to Sell U.S. Treasuries Now
03/03/2011
……To wit, he predicts that when the Fed’s QE2 bond-buying binge ends at the end of June, there will be nobody to take the Fed’s place as last-resort buyer of U.S. Treasuries at artificially low rates. Treasury yields will need to ramp up sharply by 1.5 percentage points to attract private buyers. Given that the ten-year U.S. Treasury is currently yielding only 3.5%, a 1.5 percentage point jump would equal a 43% increase in interest rates (1.5/3.5). That’s a big move in interest-rate land and would have a significantly negative effect on bond prices.
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