Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last SEP that was released in September.
And yet, the Deep State of Wall Street is busy telling investors that the Fed is almost done raising rates, hence, and a new bull market is right around the corner. But history proves this premise to be false. For example, during the preamble to the Great Recession, the Fed Funds Rate reached its apex in June of 2006 at 5.25%. It took 3 years for it to ascend to that level, up from the 1% starting level back in June of 2003. Ben Bernanke then began to cut rates in September of 2007; but the Great Recession began anyway in December of that same year. And, exactly one year from that first rate cut, the stock market went into freefall. This is another clear example of many throughout history that shows rate hikes work with a long lag.
Monday, January 02, 2023
CORSAIR CRSR Stock Analysis / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Price $18.2.P/E 57, EGF +56%, +27%
Corsair investors have paid the price due to bad company management, poor quality control of products where what one buys does not match the brand image, unfortunately when customers are once bitten they then tend to avoid that brand. On the plus side Corsair has been around for decades and has always had the potential to become something much bigger as we await the advent of Corsair Motherboards and perhaps eventually GPU board partners with the likes of Nvidia. In terms of earnings outlook then there are signs of life as EGF's suggest to expect earnings surprises ahead for both the next quarter and 2023, which is also evident on the stock price chart with most recent price action rising from a bone crushing low of $11 to approaching a doubling to $22 as the stock attempts to break above $18 resistance which would mark the END of Corsairs bear market.
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Monday, January 02, 2023
THE TWIN TOWERS OF BABEL ARE COMING DOWN EQUITIES AND BONDS / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Darryl_R_Schoon
When leveraged debt is money, what’s to worry?
For three hundred years, the banker’s ponzi-scheme of debt-based money brought wealth to the bankers and power to governments. Nothing lasts forever, however. In 2023, the dangers long dormant beneath the bankers’ debt-based markets are going to erupt.
BlackRock says get ready for a recession unlike any other and 'what worked in the past won't work now' – December 8, 2022
A worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before, according to BlackRock.
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world's biggest asset manager.
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Monday, January 02, 2023
Outrageous Gold Price Prediction for 2023 by Saxo Bank / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Gold will rocket to $3,000 next year – at least that’s what Saxo Bank says. Does this prediction make any sense though?Did you hope gold would break finally $2,000 in 2023? What if I told you that gold is going to soar to at least $3,000? Have I gone mad? No; that’s not my forecast, I only summarize the Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions for 2023.
According to the publication, next year, the markets will finally discover “that inflation is set to remain ablaze for the foreseeable future”. In the spring, China will fully pivot away from its zero-Covid policy, unleashing demand and a new surge in commodity prices. Inflation will soar again, but this time it will coincide with the Fed’s easy monetary policy amid elevated market volatility and a recession. It will then become clear that the US central bank will fail on its 2% inflation mandate, sending gold prices much higher. The yellow metal is said to be additionally supported by the rising global liquidity and “geopolitical backdrop of an increasing war economy mentality”.
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Sunday, January 01, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast Into End 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
What if someone told you where the Dow stocks index will be trading at in 3 months time and by that time the index was within 1% of where it was forecast it would be. How much would you value such analysis, furthermore without the benefit of hindsight that forecast did not just end there but continued on for a further whole year, what's that worth? Given that many so called analysts can't even go beyond a trading day.
Well that is what you are going to be in receipt of in this the final part of my 6 part series that concludes in a detailed Dow stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 which my Patrons gained access to on 5th October 2022, that forecast that the Dow by now would be trading at 32,850 against actual last close of 33,147 (30th of December 2022), which represents a less than 1% deviation against the trend forecast.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold Is It Weird to Have Two Corrective Upswings Instead of One? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Here's how history rhymes in the precious metals market and what we can glean from recent movements in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
History tends to repeat itself. Not to the letter, but in general. The reason is that while economic circumstances change and technology advances, the decisions to buy and sell are still mostly based on two key emotions: fear and greed. They don’t change, and once similar things happen, people’s emotions emerge in similar ways, thus making specific historical events repeat themselves to a certain extent.
For example, right now, gold stocks are declining similarly to how they did in 2008 and in 2012-2013.
This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks, similar to what we saw in 2013 before the worst of the slide. This is an extreme underperformance of gold stocks – something that we’ve also seen in 2013 before the biggest part of the slide.
Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold Will Reflect Inflation 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold largely ignored inflation raging out of control in 2022. Despite the first inflation super-spike since the 1970s, history’s ultimate inflation hedge disappointed. But that unsustainable anomaly driven by extreme Fed rate hikes catapulting the US dollar parabolic won’t last. Inevitably prevailing gold prices will adjust much higher to reflect this red-hot inflation fueled by epic money-supply growth. That’s very bullish for 2023.
During this past year, the primary US inflation gauge recorded extremes not seen in four decades. The monthly headline Consumer Price Index averaged blistering 8.1% year-over-year surges, never printing lower than 7.1%. June 2022’s staggering 9.1% peak proved the hottest CPI since way back in November 1981, fully 40.6 years earlier! And the CPI has been heavily watered down since, lowballed for political reasons.
Such serious inflation should’ve lit a fire under gold, fueling massive investment demand. Gold got off to a strong start in 2022, surging up 12.1% year-to-date in early March. But that was a geopolitical spike on Russia invading Ukraine, which wasn’t sustainable. From there gold collapsed 20.9% over the next 6.6 months into late September. That left it down a shocking 11.3% YTD in the worst inflation year since 1981!
That gaping gold-inflation disconnect made no sense, leaving investors increasingly bearish. But gold’s brutal mid-2022 plunge was an extreme anomaly driven by the Fed scrambling to stuff that inflation genie back in the bottle. Between mid-March to early November, the Federal Open Market Committee hiked its federal-funds rate an astounding 375 basis points. That included a shocking streak of four monster 75bp hikes!
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Gold, Silver, & Platinum Had a Good New Year 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals markets are finishing out a choppy 2022 on an up note. A strong fourth quarter is pushing both gold and silver prices back up into positive territory for the year.
The yellow metal got off to a hot start in 2022, reaching as high as $2,050 an ounce in March. But it suffered a severe pullback in the second and third quarters. A rising U.S. dollar exchange rate amid aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes drove futures traders to dump precious metals contracts.
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve note dollar has begun trending lower versus foreign currencies – spurring the gold market to pick up some steam.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Silver: What Happened in 2022, and What Could Happen in 2023? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It was an especially intense year, and silver held on tight. If 2023 is even more intense than 2022, silver won’t have a choice but to rally.A lot has happened this year. Russia invaded Ukraine. North Korea fired off missile after missile. Latin America turned to the left. The United Kingdom lost a queen, gained a king, and saw three Prime Ministers in Downing Street. President Xi Jinping was re-elected for an unprecedented third term as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, cementing his grip on power. Protests have been raging across Iran. The world population crossed 8 billion. On a personal note, my favorite sportsman and probably the best tennis player in history, Roger Federer, ended his brilliant career.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Stock Market and 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yields - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Saturday, December 31, 2022
Cost of Living Crisis Hits Christmas Markets Across the UK - Sheffield - HIGH INFLATION / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
Nurses, postmen, railwaymen and many others are striking for higher pay due to the raging cost of living crisis as workers pay do not match the prices in the shop, FAKE inflation indices of 10% when real inflation is 20%! Even Santa has hiked his Grotto price by 60%! Making Christmas that bit more painful for many families - BAD SANTA! This is why Christmas markets up and down the land have done badly during the festive season as many visitors did an about turn when the saw the high prices.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Stock Market Cool as a Cucumber Despite Earnings and Fed Noise / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
I got my COVD AUTUMN BOOSTER JAB (Pfizer Biontech) Saturday afternoon, unfortunately I have since been paying the price in terms of side effects that kicked in some 12 hours afterwards with shivers and chills, and continue as I write some 36 hours later I am feeling like I have a light flu, lethargic, lack of energy, drowsy despite having slept for over 12 hours. some Brain fog. Still I will see this article posted even if it is the last thing I do!
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Friday, December 30, 2022
What Signals Do Gold, Silver, and Stocks Send to Investors? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: P_Radomski_CFA
While the statistics scream, investors, often blinded by emotions, do not hear them. However, since history seems to rhyme, what do gold, silver, and mining stocks have in store for us?
What a boring month!
At least for those who monitor the performance of junior mining stocks. It’s Dec. 29, and the monthly price change for the GDXJ ETF is $0.15 (0.41%). That’s how much higher the GDXJ is now than it was at the end of November. That’s next to nothing – almost a “statistical error.”
Friday, December 30, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis - Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Major Fed Myth: Debunked - Fed is Reactive in Setting Rates – Not Proactive / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: EWI
The days of near-zero interest rates are long gone -- at least for now.
As we look back on 2022, we know that it's been a year of rising interest rates, and many observers say it's all due to the Fed.
But it's a flat-out myth that the Fed determines the trend of interest rates. The market does. The Fed merely.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
Sheffield Peace Gardens 2022 Christmas Lights Giant Displays Fun / Local / Sheffield
By: Eliza_Walayat
Here's a look at the wonderful sights and sounds at Sheffield Peace Gardens, christmas lights 2022, giant ornaments which this year included a teddy bear, telephone box and a couple of fountains. So do visit Sheffield and check out the light shows as well as the sights and sounds of the Christmas market and Barkers Pool amongst other shows in our other videos.
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
How Stocks Bear Markets DIE! Technical Trend Analysis Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Dow is bouncing off a new bear market low of 28,700 having already broken above the preceding low of 29.7k that targets resistance at 31k. However given the degree of momentum behind this rally the Dow could easily continue climbing to target 32k which would represent a sizeable 12% advance in what I would consider as being a sub-swing i.e. not the whole move which implies that this rally that apparently is being dismissed by most as bear market rally could eventually retrace the whole disown move from the 34k high. But for now the Dow 1st targets 31k and then 32k before it is likely to correct towards 30.5k before RESUMING it's bull run.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.
so what is going on?
ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.
Read full article... Read full article...