Monday, July 03, 2017
Are Advanced Economies Ready for Recovery, Really? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Or Global Reflation As China Begins Tightening
Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that China’s contribution to global reflation would be increasingly accompanied by those of the US and Europe. Yet, the realities may look grimmer than anticipated.
Usually, the term ‘reflation’ is used to describe the first phase of economic recovery after a period of contraction. More recently, ‘global reflation’ has been deployed to refer to the post-crisis past decade, which has been characterized by lingering recovery from the global crisis, despite ultra-low rates and quantitative easing.
Monday, July 03, 2017
Gold: Are We All Dead Wrong? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: The_Gold_Report
The natural resource sector is the most volatile sector to invest in, says Lior Gantz, editor of Wealth Research Group, and he discusses factors to take into consideration when investing.
The fact remains that the natural resource sector is the most volatile sector we can invest in.
In your brokerage account, if you see reds and not greens, as you did between January 2016 and August, then make sure you read today's piece thoroughly.
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Monday, July 03, 2017
Copper New Intermediate Cycle : Bullish / Commodities / Copper
By: SurfCity
Copper confirmed a new Intermediate Cycle this week with a breach and close above my Red Yearly Cycle Down trend line (see first two charts). Given that this last Yearly Cycle was extremely Right Translated, cycle methodology would indicate we should expect Copper to make new highs in the year ahead of us.
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Monday, July 03, 2017
Kuwait Stock Exchange Index (KWSE): Watch out below! / Stock-Markets / Middle East
By: MarketsToday
The Kuwait Stock Exchange Index (KWSE) is sitting on the edge of a cliff. We may soon see a decisive reversal of the uptrend begun from the January 2016 low. Following the January 2016 low the KWSE advanced as much as 44.4 per cent as of the 7,091.46 peak reached in early-April. That high completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term downtrend.
During the rally the index moved well above the pivotal 40-week exponential moving average (ema), and as of January broke out above the long-term downtrend line. This is all bullish behavior for the long-term.
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Monday, July 03, 2017
Is this the Stock Market Top? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: Uptrend continues with a serious loss of upside momentum in weekly indicators.
SPX Intermediate trend: An ending diagonal appears to be forming.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
Central Bankers Just Lit the Fuse on a $217 TRILLION Debt Bomb / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017
By: Graham_Summers
As we noted yesterday, the world’s Central Banks have begun sending signals that the price of money in the financial system (bond yields) is going to be rising.
Why is this a big deal?
Because globally the world has packed on $68 TRILLION in debt since 2007. And ALL of this was issued based on the assumption that bond yields would be remaining at or near record lows.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
Are Central Bankers Going to Intentionally Crash the System? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Graham_Summers
Since 2007, the world has packed on a truly staggering amount of debt. That year (2007) is now commonly referred to as a debt bubble. And at that time, global debt was $149 trillion.
Today, 10 years later, it stands at $217 trillion.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
UK Election 2017 Disaster, Fake BrExit Chaos, Forecasting Lessons for Next Time / ElectionOracle / UK General Election
By: Nadeem_Walayat
During Mid April everything appeared to be going smoothly for Britain, Article 50 had been triggered without any political opposition apart from Sturgeons shrill cry's for another Independence referendum from north of the Scottish border. But then Theresa May made the fatal mistake of believing the tripe that calls itself Britain's polling industry, that convinced her that a snap general election would yield a landslide victory, thus strengthening her hand in the about to begin BrEXIT negotiations.
Sunday, July 02, 2017
The China-EU-US-Triangle Déjà Vu / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
The new rapprochement between Brussels and Beijing involves converging economic interests between Europe and China – and diverging strategic interests between Europe and America.A day after the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, Le Monde declared that “we are all Americans.” But the honeymoon of shared suffering ended quickly when US military revenge raged across Afghanistan, Iraq, and elsewhere. Instead, a deep and broad transatlantic rift emerged, thanks to bitter disagreements about President Bush’s foreign policy revolution.
Today, many feel an odd sense of déjà vu.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
Janet Yellen Just Said The Most Ridiculous Thing We’ve Heard All Year! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Jeff_Berwick
Of all people, the last person you should ever ask about what is going to happen in the economy is a central banker or a Keynesian economist.
They are, after all, communists trying to centrally plan the economy. Commies are always clueless about economics.
And, their track record of predicting the economic future is almost perfect in that they almost always say “this time things are different” just moments before another crash happens.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
USD Intermediate Cycle Update / Currencies / US Dollar
By: SurfCity
Cycle Status/Outlook: Long term I believe the USD found a 15 Year Super Cycle top in early 2015. To confirm this we need to see the USD find a Yearly Cycle Low soon and bounce high enough to break the YC down trend line on my first chart, a three year weekly that shows Price has dropped below my Blue 2014 uptrend line and now the 30ema is starting to roll over and should start to cap rallies acting as resistance rather than support.
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Sunday, July 02, 2017
Gold Price Trend Line Broken / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Gary_Savage
Gold has closed below its intermediate uptrend line. This is the first confirmation that a larger intermediate degree decline has begun.
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Saturday, July 01, 2017
US Stock Market Correction Appears to be Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Tony_Caldaro
The market started this volatile week at SPX 2438. After a gap up opening on Monday the market rallied to SPX 2450 before reversing into a 2419 low of Tuesday. Wednesday provided another gap up opening as the SPX hit 2443. After retesting that high early Thursday the market sold off to SPX 2406 before reversing into the close. Friday had another gap up opening as the market rallied to SPX 2433, before declining to 2423 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 0.40%, and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.35%. Economic reports were slightly positive. On the downtick: durable goods, Case-Shiller, pending home sales, the Q2 GDP estimate, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims rose. On the uptick: consumer confidence/sentiment, Q1 GDP, personal income/spending, the CPI and the Chicago PMI. Next week, shortened by the 4th July holiday, we’ll get reports on Payrolls, the ISMs, and the FOMC minutes. Best to your weekend!
Saturday, July 01, 2017
Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Michael_Noonan
One thing certain of all politicians, no matter where in the world, they all lie. The US federal government, that captive political body beholding to Wall Street interests, also a subsidiary of the international bankers that controls the West and all fiat-issued currency, is one of the worst when it comes to lies and deceit, primarily because Europe can only play a poor second fiddle to federal US dictates. South America can offer no resistance, nor can South Africa.
China is beginning to flex its overblown might, and Russia, while in opposition, remains under attack by the West, led by the Neocons [Nazi-types] from the US Deep State trouble makers. The only thing the federal US government does is start wars, and if there is a war going on anywhere around the globe, the US is either directly or indirectly responsible. Wars feed the [fading but still formidable] military might as a means of keeping the fiat Ponzi scheme, aka the “dollar,” alive as the [diminishing] world reserve fiat currency.
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Saturday, July 01, 2017
Gold is Weak in Real Terms / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Intermarket analysis is a rather new field in technical analysis but one of my favorites because it is critical in understanding Gold. Asset classes like stocks and bonds are enormous and aren’t as influenced by as many factors as Gold. Trends in stocks, interest rates, commodities and currencies impact Gold in one way or another. We have written many articles over the years analyzing Gold with respect to its outlook and standing in real terms. Gold, when in a true bull market outperforms against all currencies and the global equity market. Unfortunately that is not the case at present. In real terms, Gold is weak, getting weaker and it could be a reflection of the metal’s worsening fundamentals.
Saturday, July 01, 2017
Sovereign Debt Jubilee, Japanese-Style. The US National Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017
By: Ellen_Brown
Japan has found a way to write off nearly half its national debt without creating inflation. We could do that too.
Let’s face it. There is no way the US government is ever going to pay back a $20 trillion federal debt. The taxpayers will just continue to pay interest on it, year after year.
A lot of interest.
If the Federal Reserve raises the fed funds rate to 3.5% and sells its federal securities into the market, as it is proposing to do, by 2026 the projected tab will be $830 billion annually. That’s nearly $1 trillion owed by the taxpayers every year, just for interest.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Stock Markets Hyper Risky / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: Zeal_LLC
The US stock markets have enjoyed an extraordinary surge this year, shattering all kinds of records. It’s been fueled by hopes for big tax cuts soon from Trump’s Republican government. But such relentless rallying has catapulted complacency, euphoria, and valuations to dangerous bull-slaying extremes. This has left today’s beloved and lofty stock markets hyper-risky, with mounting potential for serious selloffs erupting.
History extensively proves that stock markets are forever cyclical, no trend lasts forever. Great bulls and bears alike eventually run their courses and give up their ghosts. Sooner or later every secular trend yields to extreme sentiment peaking, then the markets inevitably reverse. Popular greed late in bulls, and fear late in bears, ultimately hits unsustainable climaxes. All near-term buyers or sellers are sucked in, killing the trend.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Has Gold Production Peaked? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
We often hear about ‘peak gold’, i.e. the maximum level of the global production of the yellow metal. According to some analysts, the gold supply already peaked in 2016 or it is likely to peak very soon, offering hope for gold bulls. We do not agree with them. The notion of gold peak is flawed and should not be a basis for investing in gold.
And here is why. It’s extremely difficult – or even impossible – to determine the peak in gold production, as the level of mining depends on many factors, including future discovery of new deposits and technological breakthroughs. Look at the chart below.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Grant Williams Warns Get Out of Stocks Before Boomers Are Forced to Sell Them / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017
By: John_Mauldin
BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : Last year, the first baby boomers turned 70 and that spells trouble for investors.
Speaking at the Mauldin Economics Strategic Investment Conference, Grant Williams, Co-Founder of RealVision TV, warned investors about the wave of forced selling by millions of retirees and the impact it will have on their portfolios.
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Friday, June 30, 2017
Half Of S&P 500 Earnings Growth Can Be Attributed To One Sector, Which Can’t Keep It Up / Stock-Markets / Sector Analysis
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : US stocks hit new all-time highs this month. Despite rich valuations, buyers think they’ll still go higher.
One reason for this exuberance is the rise of passively indexed ETFs.
Rather than go to the trouble of picking individual stocks, people dump their cash into index ETFs. The ETF sponsor then buys every stock in the index—even the ugly ones.
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