Category: Stock Markets 2013
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, August 06, 2013
Be Very Afraid Of The Stock Market, Amongst Other Things... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
We live in the Land Of Oz where the Wizard is in total control, and just as in the story of Oz, the Wizard behind the corporate federal government is just as hollow. The problem is twofold. 1. Most do not know they live as a fictional entity, [14th Amendment "citizens"], within a fictional government. All corporations are fictional entities, created by the State, and that, ironically enough, includes the State, at every level. 2. If 1. is somewhat on the radar of knowledge, those who reach level 2 still do not know that the Wizard is a phony, all-powerful, but in essence, powerless if people would only wake up.
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Tuesday, August 06, 2013
Bifurcated Stock Market, Still No Topping Action..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Sometimes you have to recognize that there's not much to add or say when doing this report. The reality is that things just aren't changing very much. The market is refusing at this time to throw a classic topping stick in our direction. We are so overbought with the potential for negative divergences on many time frames, thus, the market is truly at extreme risk for a very intense and sudden breakdown for a period of time. Only one problem. Again, there’s no topping stick and or massive gap down to set the top. It will come and probably not far out in to the distant future, but if you're a bear, you don't want to get aggressive too soon as that strategy has caused nothing but heartache for quite some time now.
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Monday, August 05, 2013
Stock Market Decline May Come With Warning / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The SPX is in day 42 of its Trading Cycle beginning at the June 24
low. Instead of 45 days from low-to-low, it appears that this cycle may be more like 60 days in duration. That gives us an approximate 17 calendar day decline from today/tomorrow, should the high come in on the next two days. The alternate probability takes us to Thursday, Aug 8 as the high, with the subsequent decline following.
Monday, August 05, 2013
Why You have to Be Invested in the Stock Market Right Now / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Our friend and frequent Money Morningcontributor Frank Holmes put together a chart of S&P 500 gains that you have to see.
The index closed July with a monthly gain of 4.9%. This is the 14th month since 2009 that the S&P 500 has gained at least 4%.
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Monday, August 05, 2013
Time for Caution, Stock Market Intermediate Top Within Days / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. After a brief consolidation, the bull market has resumed its uptrend and has already created new highs in the leading indices.
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Sunday, August 04, 2013
US Stock Markets Reach a Cross Road, Time to Start Looking for a Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
I have been targeting a move into the 1700SPX for a while, to the dismay of the bears, the bulls finally stuck a nail in the coffin of the bears, no matter how many times the bears keep getting run over they just seem to enjoy picking tops and loosing $$, it seems the bears just don't learn their lesson. I wonder if these perma-bears that keep picking tops have any $$$ left.
There is time to be bullish and time to be bearish; Elliott Wave helps us in that regard, if Elliott Wave is used correctly. Fortunately for us, we use it well enough that it is a tool for us, not a hindrance.
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Sunday, August 04, 2013
Can the Stock Market Get Any Better Than This? Korean Black Swan? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
What in the world is going on?! As I write this letter from the Maine woods, the S&P 500 has just cleared 1,700 for the first time. The German DAX continues to set all-time highs above 8,400. The United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 is quickly approaching its 1999 record high of 6,930, and its mid-cap cousin, the FTSE 250, just broke through to its all-time level above 15,000. And last but not least, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is extending its gains once more, toward 14,500. This weekend I am sitting around with some of the smartest economic and trading minds in the country. At Leen's Lodge, where we're fishing and eating where our phones don’t work, the question on our minds is, how long can this run go on? The debates can get intense in a room full of strong opinions.
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Sunday, August 04, 2013
The Trader Stock Index Games Are Ending / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Traders shot for and managed to hit 1,700 on the S&P 500. At this point, there is no real reason for this other than trader games (start of the month buying).
The rising wedge pattern we’ve been tracking is essentially complete. This final jump in the S&P 500 has been a bounce from the upper trendline. But by the look of things, this is likely the final push.
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Saturday, August 03, 2013
Another Stock Market New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls for July came in a bit lighter than forecast, but the unemployment rate dropped from 7.6% to 7.4%. The devil, of course, is in the details. The market scratched its head over the report, as well as the BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays for June, which had the additional complexity of major historical revisions. Buried in the data was the fact the Real Disposable Personal Income Per-Capita is down 0.11% year-over-year.
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Saturday, August 03, 2013
Stock Market Bull Pullback.... Market Hanging Tough..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
The market has spent a lot of time trying to get back over 1700, and finally made the move, albeit barely, yesterday. It wasn't forceful by any means, nor was it followed today by anything to get excited about. Most of that caused by the Jobs Report this morning pre-market, but more on that later. The news was poor economically this morning which caused a gap down that did back test the breakout at 1700. The bulls fought hard and were able to save the S&P 500 from falling below the entire day. Not bad when you consider the bad news on jobs, but the problem still remains that we weren't able to pull away from 1700 to give the bulls a sense of safety for at least the short-term if not longer.
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Saturday, August 03, 2013
Massive Stock Market Wave B Top Appears Complete / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
It might be good to look at the big picture, since we are very close to the high in what may be the all-time largest correction in history. It’s been a difficult process to sort out the waves, since the pattern is somewhat irregular and sloppy. Here are the highlights of the analysis:
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Stock Market Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
We have continued to correctly project the wave patterns for months now at TMTF for our subscribers in the SP 500 Index. Our latest views were to look for a minor wave 3 top at 1698 with a pullback minor wave 4. We hit that on the nose with a 23.6% fibonacci retracement of minor wave 3 as we hit 1676.
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Can the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Continue Rising? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Sasha Cekerevac writes: With the S&P 500 at all-time highs, market sentiment clearly is in the bullish camp; this must mean that all of our problems are solved and the future is bright for everyone—
Hold on a minute: if this were true, why would consumer confidence regarding the future decrease?
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Stock Market New Intraday and Closing Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: The S&P 500 bolted from the blocks at the open, assisted by a good jobless claims report and reinforced by a surprisingly strong ISM Manufacturing update. The index opened at its intraday low, up 0.22%, and closed the day with a gain of 1.25%, just a bit off its 1.31% intraday high. Today’s rally was good enough to set all-time intraday and closing highs.
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Friday, August 02, 2013
Why I’m Cynical Toward This Unsupported Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: I hate to talk negatively and am usually not a doom-and-gloom type of guy like Nouriel Roubini, “Dr. Doom.” Roubini, an economist, is the Wall Street equivalent of the character Grumpy from Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs. Yet the more I see what is happening in the stock market and global economy, the more I’m becoming cynical on the stock market.
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Thursday, August 01, 2013
Why the Stock Market’s Heights are Unrealistic / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: Investors continue to view this market with an extremely bullish view.
The investor sentiment readings on the NASDAQ have been well above a bullish 90% for more than three weeks. This means stocks could move higher.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Light Stock Market Selling as We Wait on Fed FOMC in Suspense / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: The big week of economic data got off to a weak start, with the S&P 500 slipping 0.37% in a day of light trading within a relatively narrow intraday range of 0.54% (the 16th percentile of intraday volatility for 2013). The markets are in suspense, waiting on the really big news comes later in the week: Wednesday’s Q2 GDP, which will include major revisions back to 1929, and Friday’ June employment report. On Wednesday we also get the latest FOMC statement, although the consensus is for no market-moving news. Meanwhile today’s Pending Home Sales declined less than forecast. On the other hand, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing showed weaker growth than expected.
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Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Real Reason Why Fed’s Easy Money Isn’t Helping the Stock Market in the Long Term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
George Leong writes: I tell you, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is risking the future of America with his free-flowing don’t-worry-about-the-future-generations strategy of pumping money into the economy. The problem, as I have said many times previously, is that people and companies have become so accustomed to the cheap money that the tapering to come will surely be difficult.
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Monday, July 29, 2013
Is Stock Market Minor Wave 4 Really Complete? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the severe correction of 2007-2009 may have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - SPX continues to progress according to its structure. After a brief consolidation, the bull market has resumed its uptrend and has already created new highs in the leading indices.
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Monday, July 29, 2013
World Stocks Markets Mixed Bag with a Negative Bias / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013
Courtesy of Doug Short: After four weeks of a broad-based rally, during which a minimum of seven of my eight featured indexes posted a gain, last week was a mixed bag with a negative bias. The Hang Seng was the one outstanding performer with a 2.84% advance for the week. France’s CAC 40 was a distant second, up 1.11%, and the Shanghai Composite was a close third with a 0.91% gain. The S&P 500 finished the week fractionally below the flat line, but four indexes lost from one to three percent. The big loser was Japan’s Nikkei, the “drama queen” index of 2013.
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