Category: US Dollar
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
The US Dollar Crash of 2018 Has Begun / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – in previous analysis produced on the 21st June 2018, I called the high of the rally at 95.22. This was wrong. It traded marginally higher, 3 pips in fact, putting in a high of 95.25 on the 28th June. It now appears as if it is all systems go for the mini crash of 2018. This should, in my opinion, be confirmed next week with follow through to the downside.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 05, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical
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Friday, June 29, 2018
Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Troy_Bombardia
For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.
From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:
On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.
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Saturday, June 23, 2018
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements.
Friday, June 22, 2018
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – price has continued rallying right up to the previous swing high and I believe the 2018 top was made today at 95.22. The expectation of a mini crash in the second half of the year remains unchanged.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, June 06, 2018
USD IS POINTING HIGHER IN THE SHORT TERM / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Enda_Glynn
UPCOMING RISK EVENTS:
USD: Crude Oil Inventories.
EUR: N/A.
GBP: N/A.
JPY: N/A.
Thursday, May 24, 2018
The USD Index’s Outlook / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
While we regularly cover the individual currency pairs, in today’s alert, we’ll focus on their common denominator – the USD Index. The reason is that whatever happens to it, will have profound implications on what happens in the rest of the forex world. And it seems that quite a lot is going to happen, and it’s not going to be intuitive.
As one can see, there is a general tendency for a given market to move up until it is very overbought and then to correct or decline significantly. At the least - visibly and at the most - extremely and another way of describing the latter is to say that the market is going to become very oversold.
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Monday, May 14, 2018
U.S. Dollar Rally Is Doomed / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses movements in the U.S. dollar. There was an article written a few days back where the author vehemently denied that the U.S. dollar could go any lower and where the phrases "face-ripping," "face ripper," and "rip your face off" (as well as derivatives thereof) were mentioned no fewer than nine times in a fifteen-paragraph article. The reasons given were all highly subjective and based in Modern Portfolio Theory, but what was concluded is that, once again, the U.S. dollar remains the "least smelly shirt in the laundry hamper" with aromas emitted by the euro, yen, pound and yuan all significantly more pungent than the Yankee greenback. I whole-heartedly disagree and it has nothing to do with anything taught in the CFA course or at the Rotman School of Business but rather in The Academy of Common Sense and The Ballanger Institute for Non-BS Learning.
Monday, May 14, 2018
US Dollar One Reversal Too Many / Currencies / US Dollar
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Friday was the day when silver and mining stocks were likely to reverse based on their triangle-apex-based turning points and today is the day of gold’s apex-based reversal. Therefore, it seems likely that gold, silver and mining stocks are forming the final top for this short-term upswing, or that it is already in place. The problem with the reversal scenario is that the previous week was one big bearish reversal in the USD Index. Weekly reversals are significant and thus odds of a move lower in the USD increased substantially. This means more upside in metals and miners. What should one do with the profits from the current long position?
Saturday, May 12, 2018
The US Dollar Crash of 2018 / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Latest Price – 92.41
Price has rallied solidly over the last few weeks however absolutely no damage has been done to the overall downtrend and I believe a mini crash will occur over the coming months that sees price drop down to around the 80 level.
Monday, April 30, 2018
The Battle to Save the Dollar and Treasuries / Currencies / US Dollar
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund takes a look at the prospect of a growing interest rate differential between the U.S. and the rest of the world and what that means to the dollar.
The latest dollar Hedgers charts make clear that the dollar is unlikely to drop soon, and that it is more likely that the recent rally will continue. How can that be, given the U.S. has proportionally more debt than most other countries in the world?
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Friday, April 13, 2018
If Inflation is Just 2%-3%, Why is the US Dollar Dropping Like a Brick? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Graham_Summers
The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that inflation is in fact MUCH higher than previously believed.
As we noted yesterday, the official measure of inflation, the CPI, is now clocking in at 2.4%, well above the Fed’s so-called target of 2%.
This is really, REALLY bad news because the CPI is actually massaged to make inflation look LOWER than it really is.
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Sunday, April 08, 2018
US Dollar Index Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Pattern – price looks to be in a consolidating the downtrend. Once this consolidation is over, which I believe is imminent, the downtrend should resume and see price crack to new lows.Bollinger Bands – these bands clearly show the sideways action in play currently. Price looks like it has just turned down failing to reach the upper band. The lower band has already been hit three times during this consolidation phase and the fourth attempt is usually successful at breaking through.
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Saturday, April 07, 2018
U.S. Dollar: Why It Pays to Use the Elliott Wave Model / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
See the signs that could’ve helped you nail two junctures in the greenback's trend
The legendary football coach Vince Lombardi believed that a winning team is built on mastering the game's basics -- so much so that at the start of the season he would "remind" veteran players, "Gentlemen, this is a football."
Lombardi would even take them out to the field, discuss the boundaries and remind the players that the goal is to get the football into the end zone.
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Tuesday, April 03, 2018
China Moves to Neuter King Dollar in International Trade / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
Last Monday, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched the first futures contract for crude oil priced in Chinese yuan. It’s a major step forward in the process of international de-dollarization. Now Chinese and other international traders can buy and sell the world’s most important commodity in a liquid market without using U.S. dollars.
The “petro dollar” now faces the prospect of being rendered unnecessary as China – the world’s biggest oil importer – attempts to establish a “petro yuan.”
Friday, March 23, 2018
Blaming the Fed for Weaker Greenback US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although the Federal Reserve raised interest rates yesterday, the forecast for two more hikes this year (instead of three) disappointed market participants who turned their backs on the U.S. dollar, triggering quite sharp selloff. But did anything really change in the technical picture of the greenback?
Before we analyze our currency pairs, let’s check what changed (and what has not changed) in the short-term picture of the USD Index after yesterday’s news (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, March 05, 2018
US Dollar at the Start of Multi-Year Downtrend / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
Since the US Dollar trades freely in the 1970s, on average it has rallied and declined in a period of 7.5 years. The chart below shows short term and long term US Dollar cycle:
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Friday, February 23, 2018
Why Recent Lows Are Crucial for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Nadia_Simmons
Since Friday, the USD Index extends increases and makes up for lost points. Looking at the daily chart you can even conclude that the bulls use every opportunity to push away their opponents from the recent lows. Why are they so important to them? We took a closer look at the situation and we already know the Achilles’ heel of the bulls. Do you also want to know it? We invite you to read today's alert.
Focus on the USD Index
Before we analyze the recent changes in our currency pairs, we decided to take a closer look at the current situation in the USD Index as it is the key driver who generates the major changes on the currency market.
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Friday, February 16, 2018
U.S. Dollar Bull and Bear Markets / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The idea of endlessly repeated cycles is a very old one. This is how the ancients perceived time: not as linear sequence of events, but as replaying patterns of dark and golden ages. Although the Judeo-Christian culture changed the way we view time, we like to see the market as an area of constant struggle between bulls and bears, and the resulting upward and downward trends.
Since the end of the Bretton Woods system back in the early 1970s, the U.S. dollar has also moved in trends and cycles. Due to data availability, the chart below shows the trade weighted index of the greenback against the currencies of America’s major trading partners from 1973 until January 2018, with bull and bear markets marked with green and red arrows.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
“Strong Dollar,” “Weak Dollar,” What About a Gold-Backed Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The recent hullabaloo among President Trump’s top monetary officials about the Administration’s “dollar policy” is just the start of what will likely be the first of many contradictory pronoucements and reversals which will take place in the coming months/years as the world’s reserve currency continues to be compromised. So far, the Greenback has had its worst start since 1987, the year of a major stock market reset.
The brief firestorm was set off by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said in response to the dollar’s recent slide, “Obviously, a weaker dollar is good for us, it’s good because it has to do with trade and opportunities.”* Mnuchin backtracked a bit as international financial leaders criticized the apparent shift in policy while Administration officials sought to clarify the Secretary’s remarks. President Trump weighted in on the matter saying, “Ultimately, I want to see a strong dollar” and added that Mnuchin’s comments were “taken out of context.”
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