Category: Stock Markets 2011
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Greece Debt Default On Deck.... Stock Market Anxious... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
Late this morning, after the market started recovering from its early move lower to start the day, there was news from Germany that Greece was likely to default by some time next week. The Dow fell two hundred points in a very short period of time as traders and investors started removing themselves from long plays. Hard to blame them, of course, as this type of news, should it become fact, would be devastating for markets around the world. The market spent the rest of the day spinning and churning once we got to -300 on the Dow. There was no collapse past that initial move lower off the news, but no real rally either.
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Friday, September 09, 2011
Stock Market Bear Selling / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Zeal_LLC
Early August’s sharp stock-market plunge ignited an explosion of bearish theories. And with the headline stock indexes still grinding along near lows over the month since, fears of a new bear market continue to proliferate today. But interestingly, the fast selling velocity that spooked traders is not characteristic of young bear markets. Instead it is a bull-market-correction phenomenon.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Fed Can’t Twist Stock Market Sell Signals Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The Wall Street Journal’s cover story on September 8 boldly proclaimed “Fed Prepares to Act”. The article hinted that ‘Operation Twist’ may be in the works (more on that below). Can you imagine the market’s reaction to a headline like that in the late 1990s when the Fed was looked at as some kind of miracle worker? The S&P 500 futures would have popped in the morning and inflation-protection assets would have had a strong open. On the morning of said Wall Street Journal article, the markets barely took notice of possible Fed action. This is clear evidence the markets no longer place central bankers on the miracle worker’s pedestal. It also shows fear of debt-induced deflationary outcomes is now outweighing the fear of inflation. These are significant and dangerous shifts for the market’s risk/reward profile. If this shift continues, stocks (SPY) and commodities (DBC) may experience further, and rapid declines in the next six months, if not much sooner. We added to our short positions (SH) on August 8.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Stock Market Shorts May Prey On Serious Problems In Europe / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Bridgewater Associates is the world’s largest macro hedge fund firm, meaning they have a good handle on the problems in Europe. Some excerpts from a Bloomberg article on the firm’s current outlook:
Read full article... Read full article...These days, the view from Bridgewater is dour. They divide the world into two groups: developed debtor nations that are deleveraging and emerging creditor countries that are leveraging up. After years of overspending financed by borrowing, the former are being forced to lower their debt relative to their income levels, constraining spending levels and employment gains.
Thursday, September 08, 2011
Stock Market Sentiment At Extremes...Nearly Inverted... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
I started speaking about this phenomenon last week when the bull-bear spread got down to 4.3%. It was 7.6% the week before, and I must admit, I was surprised to see it drop to that 4.3% level. Then today the sentiment figures got even more bearish on the spread. Only a 1.1% spread between bulls and bears with the bulls at 38.7% and the bears at 37.6%. When levels get this low, and it is unusual that they do, getting sustainable downside action is not easy for the bears any longer. That doesn't mean there won't be down days because, of course, there will be. Some will be nasty. It just suggests that sustainable downside action will become far more difficult as the bear trade is full. When the bears are all in it gets too tough to kill the market. No different than when the bulls go all in. Upside action becomes more difficult. The bull-bear spread can invert negatively but that is rare.
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Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Stock Market Glass More Half Empty Than Half Full / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Richard_Shaw
The battle between bulls and bears is tense right now (as the attached cover image from this week's Barrons illustrates)
WHAT WE SAID BEFORE:
We have previously provided charts and data supporting the Bull case, showing high and growing earnings with historically "normal" range valuation multiples, at the same time that bonds offer little in terms of yield and must eventually go down when rates must eventually go up -- with many stocks (even the S&P 500 index) providing dividend yields competitive with 10-year Treasuries.
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Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Stock Market Odds Favour More Declines Ahead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into about 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The bull market which started on March 2009 at 667 appears to have ended at 1370. It is unclear if the first intermediate decline of the new bear market is over.
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Tuesday, September 06, 2011
The Stock Market Black Monday the Public Doesn’t Know About / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
I hope everyone had a fantastic Labor Day weekend. I truly enjoyed myself and was able to have some creativity with my 18 month daughter. I got some new office chairs last week and I finally had time to assemble them during the rainy and windy black Monday here in Canada… Just like a child on their birthday, I tossed the chair parts aside and played with the large boxes with Mirabelle.
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
Europe and Asia Stock Markets Labor Day Sell Off / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: George_Maniere
For years, Labor Day weekend was a time to take a break from work and celebrate the fruits of our labor. Sadly last weekend was a time when millions of Americans wished they had a job to take a break from. If you were awake or remotely paying attention last Friday September 2nd The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August 2001 jobs report and in a word - it was abysmal. The report showed that no jobs had been created in August. If this statistic was not so sad it would be laughable. What is even more telling then this report was that the prior two months had been revised down and I expect next month for the same thing to play out. The report will be revised down from zero to a negative number. There is no fudging the numbers. The jobs market is getting worse and fast.
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Sunday, September 04, 2011
No Jobs.....No Surprise... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
Even though there was supposed to be job creation near 100K, I don't think anyone should be shocked by the reality of absolutely no job creation. When we study the important economic reports that have come in recently, we see an economy that has consistently been heading lower towards recessionary numbers. The ISM Manufacturing Report stuck at 50 for the past two months. Anything below 50 is recessionary (contraction). The fact that we've spent two months at the save place after recently being as high as 61 can't be looked upon in a positive fashion. We've taken a plunge down in the past two months after stabilizing a bit, and now we seem to be on the road to further down side action economically. The saddest part being that there seems to be no way to cure what ills us all. Sure, the fed could give the economy of this country another blast of QE action, but we all know that the past two QE programs did nothing other than to create more inflation for those who simply cannot afford that type of outcome. Most of the fed governors are now totally against this type of program and have let it be known they'd vote against it if Mr. Bernanke wants it instituted.
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Friday, September 02, 2011
September Could Be Worse Than August for Stock Market Performance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Money_Morning
Kerri Shannon writes:
Investors beware - the dismal days of September market performance are here.
September notoriously often leaves markets in negative territory. Since the start of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 1896, the index has lost an average of 1.07% in September, with a 0.71% average gain for all other months.
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Thursday, September 01, 2011
Stock Market Traders Don’t Care About Long-Term Problems, But You Should / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Professional stock market traders manage risk very closely. In fact, stop loss levels tend to be set almost directly below entry points, meaning they are comfortable owning a position for a few minutes or a few days. If the trade does not work, they get out. Traders look at risk-reward ratios on much shorter time frames than investors. A good trading opportunity is not necessarily a good opportunity for investment.
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Stock Market Hesitation Or Black Candles After Recent Run Up..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
The market has been on quite the bullish run of late. Many factors acting in its favor from too many bears to oversold daily charts. Some very deeply depressed oscillators to say the least. This combination has seen the market go up in the face of mostly poor economic reports. Sometimes the technicals outweigh the fundamentals, but that's usually only for the very short-term. Like I just said, too many technical factors came together to provide a nice run up all the way to the 50-day exponential moving averages on the daily charts for the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq, and other indexes. We tailed off those 50-day tests today. Nothing horrendous, but we did tail off, and what's key about it is the fact that we gapped up today off this nice run up. But after that gap up we saw on balance sellers for the rest of the day with the DIA closing on a Doji, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closing with black candles.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Stock Market Sentiment...Daily Oscillators Lead To Rally... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
There are times when events take place that are predictable to some, but not at all to others. Take the stock market today, for instance. Not many understand the rally today, nor what will happen in the days to come. It's based purely on two events. The bull-bear spread, and the 21-day put/call levels, are bullish. Simply too much negative sentiment out there short-term.
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Monday, August 29, 2011
Europe, Bearish Technicals Drag Down Longer-Term Outlook for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Ciovacco
With Ben Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech in the rear-view mirror, the markets will most likely turn their attention back toward Europe. In the short-run, it is doubtful market-calming news will emerge concerning debt and slowing growth in Europe. Add in a bear-market-like technical back drop (see video below) and we have a recipe for continued stress-inducing volatility in the stock, bond, commodity, and currency markets.
Monday, August 29, 2011
After the Stock Market Peak / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Donald_W_Dony
The S&P 500, along with all global stock indexes, has started another bear market decline. The peak developed in April, after over two years of advancing (Chart 1).
Monday, August 29, 2011
What's Next for the Stock Market S&P500 and Gold? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Now that Mr. Bernanke’s speech is old news, what was the financial media thinking exactly? A significant number of financial writers have been anticipating discussion of QE III or QE III Lite which clearly were never even on the Fed Chief’s radar this week. The focus of the Jackson Hole Summit was how to achieve long-run growth, not conduct discussion of monetary policy.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 29, 2011
Are We Really In A Stocks Bear Market Yet? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Andre_Gratian
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014-16.
SPX: Intermediate trend - The 1101 low of 8/22 appears to be holding and may mark the bottom of the intermediate downtrend which started at 1370 on 5/02.
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Saturday, August 27, 2011
Stock Market New Uptrend Underway After Bernanke's Jackson Hole Speech? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Tony_Caldaro
The equity market reversed last week’s loses with equally impressive gains this week. After hitting a low on monday (SPX 1121) the market surged to 1191 early thursday, and then got struck by a selloff in Germany and concern about FED chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech. Then after hitting SPX 1136 the market rallied into the friday close. Economic reports were sparse and generally negative. Improving, were durable goods orders, FHFA housing prices and consumer sentiment. On the downtick, were new homes sales, Q2 GDP, the monetary base, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 4.5%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 6.0%. Asian markets gained 1.1%, European markets gained 1.9%, the Commodity equity group gained 1.9%, and the DJ World index rose 2.5%. Next week we have an abundance of economic reports: ISM, the Chicago PMI, PCE prices, the Case-Shiller index, and the Payrolls report on friday.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Stock Market Bear Flag Continues... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2011
By: Jack_Steiman
Try to understand why this may be taking place folks. The market had a tremendous move lower over only a two-week time period. Nearly 250 S&P 500 points in such a small amount of time. Markets only have so much energy from which to be able to make such a move before it needs a longer period of resting up. The bear flag (handle) is now three weeks old. It can get a lot older than that. I'll talk more about that later on in this letter. This extended period of time would allow folks to become more confused about what the market is about to do next. Within the bear flag there's a lot of whipsaw action. Totally understandable as the VIX is high, and folks who are confused are looking for other positions to act as protection. The whipsaw is dangerous to play from a trading perspective. The more you play the harder it'll be on up emotionally.
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