Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Dollar Rallies on Flight to Quality as Fundamentals Continue to Weaken

Currencies / Forex Trading Mar 30, 2009 - 07:25 AM GMT

By: ForexPros

Currencies Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe USD firmed up overnight as follow-on selling found stops in the majors. Overnight news that Spain will offer its first bailout during the current financial crisis pushed EURO into stops under the 1.3200 area and below keeping the rate under pressure throughout the evening. Bids ahead of 1.3150 offered initial support but traders note more stops under the 1.3150 area are building. High prints in Asia at 1.3287 were offered by a US bank traders say. Adding weight are lower equities; markets reacting to news that the US government will not support the current plans by GM and Chrysler and may be looking for a bankruptcy. Traders note that investor confidence will likely take a hit on the news and expect further declines in equities during the day.


GBP fell through stops layered under the 1.4200 handle with low prints at 1.4109; high prints at 1.4300 and the rate is holding 1.4150 area at the New York open. Traders note that UK mortgage approvals hit the highest levels since May of 2008 and are providing a bit of support from larger names.

USD/JPY is lower as high prints at 98.33 went offer from exporters; low prints at 95.94 before finding bids. Traders note stops at 96.60/80 were in size suggesting the rate was heavily long from recent trade.

USD/CHF continued to firm into the 100 day MA with high prints at 1.1517 just under the resistance level around 1.1520/30 area; low prints at 1.1439 in early Asia.

USD/CAD rounds out the firmer USD this morning with high prints at 1.2539 and is holding firm around the 1.2490 area; low prints at 1.2382 above support around 1.2380 area.

Attention now turns to the Thursday G-20 meeting this week and the ECB meeting. Traders are expecting a 25-50 BP cut from the ECB but do not expect any real help from the G-20; technical factors are likely to drive trade ahead of US data this week as well. Stops are noted below the current levels in the majors suggesting that the USD will remain bid into the end of the week. Aggressive traders can sell rallies in the USD but it is advisable to wait 24 hours to see how initial bulls react to the start of the week when the USD has firmed to start.

In my view, the markets are still trading on news and potential flight-to-quality as the underlying fundamentals continue to favor a weaker USD. Regardless of how likely the Greenback is to weaken over time the market continues to price in fear enough that the USD is continuing to trade in a wide topping range. Look for the majors to remain under pressure today and into US data on Tuesday.

GBP/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.4440/50, Resistance 2: 1.4380, Resistance 1: 1.4300

Latest New York: 1.4204, Support 1: 1.4100/10, Support 2: 1.4050, Support 3: 1.4020

Comments

Rate falls through stops into support around the 1.4100 handle overnight; traders report more stops waiting under 1.1400 with bids around 1.4050 for the day. Bulls need to be on the sidelines at this point. A close back under the 1.4250 area argues for more losses. Traders report large names on the dips last week but they may have been whipsawed out to start this week. Overhead resistance now drops to 1.4380 to 1.4440 area; overhead target of the 1.5000 area likely to be on hold with a test of the lows first possibly creating a range. Traders feel the 23-year lows will likely remain secure. The shorts have taken control of the market above the 1.4440 area for now and if a range is forming a test under the 1.3900 handle is likely; traders report stops in-range adding for two-way action.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m

9:00am GBP MPC Member Tucker Speaks

EUR/USD Daily

Resistance 3: 1.3380, Resistance 2: 1.3330, Resistance 1: 1.3280

Latest New York: 1.3207, Support 1: 1.3150, Support 2: 1.3100, Support 3: 1.3080

Comments

Rate fails at support and clears large stops under 1.3200; rate likely has stops building in both directions but shorts have taken control of the market as the rate gives back gains over the 1.3400 area last week late. Action remains two-way; stops under 1.3150 area said to be building in size suggesting the rate has another leg lower coming near-term. That dip would be a buy opportunity in my view. Overhead resistance of 1.3350 area now back in play; expect sellers in that area on a rally. Asian sovereigns seen selling rallies last week and a US bank seen leaning on the rate at the open; no doubt momentum traders from Friday’s close. Long-term bulls are likely still in control of the market and this significant pullback is a buying opportunity in my view but the timing needs another day or two to work through. Expect two-way action.

Data due Tuesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)

3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change

4:00am EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m

5:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y

5:00am EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m

Join us for the Morning FOREX Briefing daily at 7:45 AM Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis by: http://www.Forexpros.com - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Forexpros offers the most definitive Forex portal on the web. It contains industry leading market analysis, up-to-the minute news and advanced trading
tools which provides brokers, traders and everyone involved in the financial market with an all-round guide to Forex.

Copyright © 2009 by ForexPros.com All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

ForexPros Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in