Although the market's reaction to this morning's inventory data triggered a 9% sell-off in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (NYSE: UNG), I consider the action as part of a larger developing base formation between 18.00 and 15.50 that must occur prior to the completion of the “equilibrium” period, after which Mr. Market will begin discounting a shift in the supply-demand dynamics that lifts prices. From a technical perspective, the 16.00 area provides excellent symmetrical support within the developing base, which should provide the platform for a recovery into the 17.50 to 18.00 initial target zone.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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