FSA to Regulate UK House Prices Lower
Housing-Market / UK Housing Mar 20, 2009 - 04:53 PM GMT
The FSA has proposed changes to limit the amount of money people can borrow for house purchases which includes minimum deposits of as much as 15% of the value of the property as part of the Chairman of the FSA, Lord Turners review into the banking crisis. The aim of the review is to put an end to the high risk mortgages that at the height of the housing boom had the likes of the now nationalised Northern Rock bank allowing mortgages of upto 125% of the value of property, far in excess of the X3.5 safe salary multiple which witnessed self certification mortgages of as much as X10 salaries with the accepted norm of more than X5 salaries.
I can imagine that the proposed changes will be met by much resistance from the financial industry as it will in one fail swoop bring a halt to the boom and bust cycle i.e. if loans are fixed at X3.5 salary then it would have been impossible for UK house prices to have risen to an average of £200,000 which equates to more than X6.6 salaries, which allowed those in the industry to bank huge commissions and bonuses amidst a speculative fever, only for the bust to have dumped all of the bankrupt banks bad debt liabilities that run to the hundreds of billions of pounds onto the UK tax payer. Whilst it is too little too late now, it will however prevent the next boom and bust from occurring as long as the proposals are actually implemented, which would point to a different type of UK housing market that may perhaps result in a sea change in public perception from that of becoming home owners to favouring renting as house price growth will effectively be regulated by the regulator inline with average earnings.
The average house price has now fallen from £200,000 to just under £160,000 for February Halifax data, which implies the maximum loan at X3.5 salary on the average £30,000 salary would be cut to £105,000, on top of this there is a requirement for a deposit of 15% which on £160k amounts to £24k. This therefore implies the maximum house price in a functioning market should be £129k or still nearly 20% lower than where house prices stand today.
However the Labour government has embarked on an programme of Quantative Inflation the consequences of which will be much higher inflation than any one can estimate at this point based on the existing deflationary trend as a consequence of debt delveraging as the government seeks to fill the gap with public debt monetized by printing money to force the long yield curve lower, which effectively means devaluing the value of the british pound and thus inflating prices such as wages and house prices to give the illusion of a market that has stopped falling in nominal terms, i.e. an attempt to fill the gap between £129k and £160k by inflating wages in nominal terms.
UK Housing Market Trend and Current State.
UK house prices peaked in August 2007 (UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth) The rate of decent peaked for December data at -19% and has now declined to -17.7% . The rise in UK house prices during January 09 brought a brief pause to the house price crash that resumed its bear market in February into its 19th month as the below graph illustrates which is per the updated house price forecast that covers the trend into 2012 which projects for a total drop from peak to trough of 38%. However, as I have warned many times over the past 19 months, the government has in its power the ability to print money to bring nominal house price falls to standstill, this money printing is now quaintly termed as "Quantative Easing" so as to hide the truth and mask the continuing crash in house prices that despite the opinion of the mainstream press by the likes of Anatole Kaletsky and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard HAS put Britain on the path towards bankruptcy, as explained in the depth analysis of November 2008 - Bankrupt Britain Trending Towards Hyper-Inflation?, and updated more recently - Gordon Brown Bankrupting Britain as Tax Payer Liabilities Soar- Update
As mentioned earlier, nominal UK house prices will be increasingly supported by the highly inflationary measures being put into action whilst real terms values continue to erode. This therefore increasingly points to a gradual decline in the rate of house price falls, and suggests a prolonged period of stagnation, which suggests that UK housing market is targeting a shallower rate of decline in the order of another 14%-16% over the next 2 years rather than the scare mongering headlines of recent weeks as the mainstream press ran with a dubious report that UK house prices could fall by another 55%. This in my opinion is not going to happen, not in the soon to become apparent highly inflationary environment of quantitative inflation that many of the worlds economies are moving towards as they seek to print money in the form of monetizing their debt by buying government bonds and thus artificially lowering long interest rates by increasing the amount of currency in circulation by the hundreds of billions if not trillions.
By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis specialises on the housing market and interest rates. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 250 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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