Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Squid Game Stock Market 2025 - 5th Jan 25
Stock Market Bubble Drivers, Crypto Exit Strategy During Musk Presidency - 27th Dec 24
Gold Stocks’ Remain Exceptionally Weak Even as Stocks Rise - 27th Dec 24
Gold’s Remarkable Year - 27th Dec 24
Stock Market Rip the Face Off the Bears Rally! - 22nd Dec 24
STOP LOSSES - 22nd Dec 24
Fed Tests Gold Price Upleg - 22nd Dec 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Why Do We Rely On News - 22nd Dec 24
Never Buy an IPO - 22nd Dec 24
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gauging the Turn in Dollar, Gold & Crude Oil

Commodities / Financial Markets 2009 Mar 20, 2009 - 12:48 PM GMT

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe FOMC announcement of March 18, December 16 and September 16 each produced an interventionist surprise at the expense of the dollar. But unlike in the announcements of Sep 16 (AIG bailout) and Dec 16 (Fed's surprising zero interest rate announcement), Wednesday's announcement to buy long term treasuries and expand the purchase of MBS and Agency securities may continue to extend the dollar's retreat, beyond just a few days.


My warning for a turn in the dollar emerged shortly after the dollar index failed to break above 89.62 (euro equivalent low at $1.2455), which was a trend line resistance prevailing since the February 2002 high (peak of USD bull market).



So why is it different this time?

1. The Eastern/Central European story haunting the euro was clearly a negative theme for the currency, but such a story would only prove detrimental for the euro in the event of a bankruptcy/implosion of these banks. Absent those events, those fears were confined to grading watch from credit rating agencies, thereby, not justifying prolonged selling in the euro towards the October lows.

2. It is not enough to make the case for the dollar simply based on the premise that the Feds aggressiveness renders the US economy most likely to recover the soonest. The fact that US credit market strains and ongoing macroeconomic spill-over show no signs of abating, justifies that intensity of the US central bank measures as they reflect the critical situation of US markets/economy. Also, recall that part of the Feds liquidity measures have been aimed at shoring up liquidity for foreign central banks.

3. Technically, the ensuing positive correlation between the USD and global equities suggests an acceleration of the dollar sell-off as equities extend their recovery (albeit still deemed a bear market bounce). Indices would have to rally by more than 27%-28% from this months lows to 845-855 in the S&P500, 4,460-4,500 in the FTSE-100, 4,680-4,700 in the Dax-30 and 9,000-9,100 in the Nikkei-225.

These are some of the factors most likely to make yesterdays major Fed action different from the previous two by extending USD weakness (commodity strength) beyond just 2-3 days, and into mid end of April-Mid May. These conditions are especially facilitated by oils' break to 2-mth highs above the 100-day MA for the first time since August and a rally in resource metals (copper at 4-month highs).

What About Gold?

Golds uptrend was bolstered by its ability to hold above the bottom of the 4-month channel pf $880, its ability to limit periodic declines to no more than 10-11%, as well as holding above its 50-day MA. These technical criteria were first brought up on March 6 th . Having passed all these tests, I re-iterate the near term target of $1,050.

By Ashraf Laidi
AshrafLaidi.com

Ashraf Laidi is the Chief FX Analyst at CMC Markets NA. This publication is intended to be used for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. CMC Markets (US) LLC is registered as a Futures Commission Merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

Ashraf Laidi Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in