Financial Markets Analysis: Surviving Deflation
News_Letter / Financial Markets 2009 Feb 07, 2009 - 08:31 PM GMTBy: NewsLetter
February 2nd , 2009 Issue #6 Vol. 3
The stocks bear market reasserted itself by the end of last week in response to across the board bad earnings reports and economic data accompanied by revised IMF forecasts of marked slow down in global economic growth. The stock market trends are in line with the forecast for 2009 that targets new stocks bear market lows for the Dow of 6,600 and FTSE 3,400 as per my earlier newsletter and associated syndicated article of 22nd January.
Financial Markets Analysis: Surviving DeflationDear Reader, The stocks bear market reasserted itself by the end of last week in response to across the board bad earnings reports and economic data accompanied by revised IMF forecasts of marked slow down in global economic growth. The stock market trends are in line with the forecast for 2009 that targets new stocks bear market lows for the Dow of 6,600 and FTSE 3,400 as per my earlier newsletter and associated syndicated article of 22nd January. Other markets also continued to move inline with the forecast trends for 2009, with Gold breaking back above $900 to target $960, and the U.S. Treasury Bonds continuing to trend lower by targeting $120. Financial Market Forecasts for 2009
The global economies continued to fall of the edge of a cliff in the face of real deflation that has made itself visible in CPI inflation data, as mainstream economic forecasters continued to play catchup and revise GDP forecasts lower for all major economies as witnessed by the IMF's latest revision for UK GDP for 2009 from -1.3% barely 2 months ago to now -2.8%, which is inline with my expectations for UK GDP contraction of 3% for 2009, but more on that in the UK Recession Watch to be published later this week. The primary concern amongst investors is the implications of deflation on portfolio allocation for primary asset classes of cash, real estate, stocks, bonds and commodities during 2009 and beyond, with that in mind Robert Prechter has made available for free to our readership his in-depth 60 page Deflation Survival Guide e-book. Your deflation investing analyst. Nadeem Walayat Editor, The Market Oracle Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of the Week
By: Mike_Shedlock There are numerous YouTube videos, articles, and references to Peter Schiff being "right" rapidly circulating the globe. While Schiff was indeed correct about the US imploding, most of the praise heaped on Schiff is simply unwarranted, and I can prove it.
By: Eric_Chevrette After it was definitely assumed on Jan 4 (see “Why 2009 deleveraging stock market and commodities crash is ripe”) that an 8 week liquidation leg was about to be ignited for commodities and global stocks by a renewed bull for the US $ and the YEN-Euro cross-rate, we can gather from the global market table below how accurate EWS methods can be when properly applied.
By: James_Quinn Every day seems worse than the previous day. Five hundred thousand people are getting laid off every month. Our banking system is on life support. Retailers are going bankrupt in record numbers. The stock market keeps descending. Home prices continue to plummet. Home foreclosures keep mounting. Consumer confidence is at record lows. You would like to close your eyes and make it go away.
By: Peter_Schiff My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context.
By: Rob_Kirby Borrowing from the axiom that, “a picture is worth a thousand words,” today we are going to view the incredulity of recent macro-economic events with the aid of charts and graphs. First up is a chart of the price of gold [POG] over the past year with a few “milestones” pasted in for good measure:
By: Martin Weiss The time has come to issue one of my sternest warnings to date: Bank of America and Citigroup could fail despite the most radical government rescues of all time. Right now, after recent close calls with instant death, these two megabanks are on life support, receiving massive transfusions of government capital. But they're still hemorrhaging, and no one in Washington has found a cure.
By: Mark_OByrne Reuters Precious Metals Poll 2009
By: Larry Edelson I haven't always been bullish on it. In fact, for about 20 years between 1980 and 2000, I was mostly bearish on this investment. I believed the end of the Cold War had largely done it in from a geo-political perspective. I also believed that a new wave of technological innovation and stock market performance was going to give way to a slew of IPOs and a stock market boom in just about every asset but this one.
By: Ty_Andros As economic activity and PONZI finance fall off the face of the earth, we enter the stretch run of the CON game known as the Bond and FIAT currency markets. Although both are headed for their ultimate demise, the path will be quite different. In 2009, these challenges will be headed your way. Prepare properly and thrive, or fail to do so and fall to your demise.
By: Shah Gilani Frighteningly, like the rush into tech stocks, then the rush into real estate, and then the rush into commodities, the rush into U.S. government bonds has created a Treasury bubble. In a cruel twist of economic fate, passage of an aggressive Obama administration stimulus plan could further inflate that bubble - before popping it.
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