Stock, Commodities, Futures and Forex Markets Analysis 27th January 2009
Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 27, 2009 - 07:37 AM GMTBy: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 50% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1154.62. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is still possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1097.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.48 would confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1203.48. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1222.25. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 1132.00. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 1123.08.
The March NASDAQ 100 was up 2.00 pts. at 1181.50 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends last week's trading range above the 62% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 815.75. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the November-January rally crossing at 788.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 868.03 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 849.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 868.03. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 797.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 788.40. The March S&P 500 Index was up 3.40 pts. at 834.20 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were higher due to light short covering overnight as they consolidate some of last week's decline but remain below the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 126-12 is the next downside target. Trading could be subdued ahead of this afternoon's interest rate decision by the Fed. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-08 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 132-31. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 134-08. First support is Monday's low crossing at 128-14. Second support is the 50% retracement level crossing at 126-12.
ENERGY MARKETS
March crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.78. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally, the previous reaction high crossing at 54.74 is the next upside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 54.74 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place. If March renews this month's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 48.59. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 54.74. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 44.17. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 39.11.
March heating oil was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 154.69 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 123.96 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 146.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 154.69. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 130.39. Second support is December's low crossing at 123.96.
March unleaded gas was steady to higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 127.84 are needed to confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 106.80 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.84. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 131.83. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 106.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 94.25.
March Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, monthly support crossing at 4.160 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.270 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.724. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.270. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.355. Second support is monthly support crossing at 4.160.
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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.62. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.40 are needed to confirm that the corrective rally off December's low has come to an end. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the November-December decline crossing at 88.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.62. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 87.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.40. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.04.
The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally above the 10-day moving average crossing at 130.726. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.845 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 126.441 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 133.190. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133.845. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 127.550. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 126.441.
The March British Pound was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4477 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.3245 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4175. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4478. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.3492. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.3245.
The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .8992 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline the 87% retracement level crossing at .8370 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8802. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8992. First support is the 75% retracement level crossing at .8555. Second support is broken resistance marked by the reaction high crossing at .8495.
The March Canadian Dollar was mostly steady overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.79 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If March renews thismonth's decline, December's low crossing at 76.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 82.56. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 78.30. Second support is December's low crossing at 76.93.
The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, monthly resistance crossing at .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .11077 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .10964 would greatly increase the odds that last week's high marked a double top with December's high. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at .11496. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at .11500. First support is the overnight low crossing at .11109. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11077.
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PRECIOUS METALS
April gold was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally, October's high crossing at 938.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 855.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 918.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 858.60. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing near 855.50.
March silver was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains but remains above broken resistance crossing at 11.770. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If
March extends the rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.210 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 12.285. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.264. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.210.
March copper was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 162.25 would renew the rally off December's low. If March renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 125.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 163.10. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 147.72. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 137.30.
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this month's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 11.270 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cocoa closed lower on Monday due to profit taking but not before testing resistance marked by December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above December's high crossing at 26.16 are needed to renew the rally off October's low. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 25.16 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March sugar closed higher on Monday as it extended this month's rally and spiked above November's high crossing at 13.00. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13.14 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.95 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Monday and posted a new high for the year as it extended the rally off November's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. If March extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of last year's decline crossing at 54.53 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 45.58 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
March corn was lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.94. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 4.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4 is the next downside target. Lower expectations for Argentine's corn crop combined with lower expected U.S. corn acres this year could create shortages for the 2009-10 marketing year that support higher prices. This has shifted end users buying habits as they are moving to a buy breaks attitude that has pushed prices up against resistance around $4.00. A breakout above $4.00 is needed soon to avoid another round of speculative selling that would test underlying support crossing near 3.50. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.94. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.07. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.58 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 3.52 3/4.
March wheat was fractionally lower overnight due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.92 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.38 is the next downside target.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 11 1/4-cents at 6.21 3/4.
Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.17 1/2 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. Profit taking tempered early gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's rally, December's high crossing at 6.70 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 5.79 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook in the market.
March Minneapolis wheat was fractionally higher overnight as it extends the rally above the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short- term low might be in or is near. If March extends the overnight rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.85 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above this resistance level are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 6.24 1/2 would confirm that a double top with the early-January high has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness into early-February.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were lower overnight due to light profit taking as they consolidate above the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.00. Increased producer selling continues to stall rallies as they reached the top of this month's trading range crossing at 10.40. Additional selling pressure overnight was triggered as private weather forecasts increased rain chances for this week in Argentina.
However, no dramatic change in the weather pattern is expected however; traders remain skittish by the wetter forecast. The low-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.24 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 9.57 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's rally. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 321.50 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 292.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March soybean oil was steady to slightly higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 32.00 is the next downside target. Closes above last Tuesday's high crossing at 35.20 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
LIVESTOCK
April hogs closed down $1.62 at $62.77.
April hogs closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If April extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 60.63 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.42 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.69. Second resistance is gap resistance crossing at 67.05. First support is today's low crossing at 62.65. Second support is weekly support crossing at 60.63.
February bellies closed down $0.15 at $80.60.
February bellies closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline and tested December's low crossing at 79.30. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a double bottom with December's low might have been posted. Closes below December's low crossing at 79.30 could prove to be a bear trap due to the oversold condition of the market. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
April cattle closed down $0.20 at 85.60.
April cattle closed lower on Monday as it consolidates below the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.32. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.
If April extends this month's decline, December's low crossing at 82.45 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.76 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
March feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $91.72.
March Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday due to profit taking. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends last week's decline, gap support crossing at 87.95 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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