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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 9th January 2009

Stock-Markets / Futures Trading Jan 09, 2009 - 09:06 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe March NASDAQ 100 was lower in overnight trading as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1218.58 would confirm that a short- term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target.


The March NASDAQ 100 was down 5.75 pts. at 1243.75 as of 6:00 AM CST. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1278.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1321.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1230.45. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1218.58. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.

The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 892.11 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 947.60 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 942.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 947.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 902.58. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 892.12. The March S&P 500 Index was down 3.70 pts. at 903.00 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as they consolidate some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 130-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136-05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-11. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 131-23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 130-01.

ENERGY MARKETS
February crude oil was steady to lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline below the 10-
day moving average thereby tempering the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 35.13 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.38. Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 50.47. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 40.54. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 36.94.

February heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.06 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If February extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 185.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 166.88. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 185.16. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 145.76. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144.06.

#February unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight and is poised to extend Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 90.00 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 121.11 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 124.05. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 127.50. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 103.27.

February Henry natural gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February renews last week's decline, December's low crossing at 5.245 then psychological support crossing at 5.000 are February's next downside targets. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 6.240 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree rally during the first half of January. First resistance is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 5.738. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.845. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 5.550. Second support is last week's low crossing at 5.477.

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CURRENCIES

The March Dollar was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 80.43 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 84.98 are needed to renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 84.98. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 85.34. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 81.99. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 80.43.

The March Euro was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.193 would confirm that a short-
term low has been posted. If March renews this week's decline, broken resistance crossing at 130.680 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 137.923. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 138.193. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 132.830. Second support is broken resistance crossing at 130.680.

The March British Pound was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1.5544 is the next upside target. Closes below last week's low crossing at 1.4329 would renew the decline off December's high. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1.5356. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5544. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.4897. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4779.

The March Swiss Franc was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, broken resistance crossing at .8495 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9240 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9240. Second resistance is last week's high crossing at .9662. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .8872. Second support is the reaction high crossing at .8495.

The March Canadian Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 86.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 85.23. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.18. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.60.

The March Japanese Yen was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off December's high. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .11023 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the August-December rally crossing at .10331 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .11023. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .11162. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at .10567. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the August-December rally crossing at .10331.

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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rebound. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, trendline support drawn off the November-December lows, which crosses near 806.20 is the next downside target. If February renews this winter's rally, October's high crossing at 938.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 865.50. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 892.00. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 836.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 829.80.

March silver was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.902 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends last month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.430 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11.770. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 12.430. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.902. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 10.570.

March copper was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20-day moving average. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.84 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 173.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 162.25. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 173.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 143.44. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 139.84.

FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 12.335 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 10.605 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March cocoa closed higher on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that March is poised to renew the rally off October's low in the near future. If March renews the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 24.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March sugar closed higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.53 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 13.00 is the next upside target.

March cotton closed higher on Thursday as it extended this month's rally above broken resistance marked by November's high crossing at 48.00. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 51.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 46.57 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis

March corn was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a pause or setback from recent highs is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.96 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33 1/2 then November's high crossing at 4.38 1/2 are the next upside targets. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 4.33. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.09 1/2. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.96 1/4.

March wheat was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.123. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.81 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.60 is the next upside target.

March Kansas City Wheat closed down 3 3/4-cents at 6.33 1/4.

Kansas City Wheat closed lower on Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.29 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook in the market. If March extends the rally off December's low, the October 6th gap crossing at 6.91 is the next upside target.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up a 1/2-cent at 6.64 1/2.

March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Thursday due to short covering as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends December's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.97 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.57 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
March soybeans were sharply higher overnight and are poised to extend the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 11.13 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 9.81 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.

March soybean meal was higher overnight and has extended the rally off December's low. The high-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 38% retracement level of the July-December decline crossing at 311.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 282.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.

March soybean oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 34.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 38.04 is the next upside target.

LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $1.12 at $62.42.

February hogs closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 65.40 then November's high crossing at 67.10 are the next upside targets. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 64.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 65.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.88. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 61.60.

February bellies closed down $1.25 at $84.65.

February bellies closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 79.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 91.80 are needed to needed to renew the late-December rally.

February cattle closed down $2.62 at 83.15.

February cattle closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's breakout below the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.91. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, December's low crossing at 80.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.47 would temper the near- term bearish outlook in the market. Closes above this week's high crossing at 89.10 are needed to renew the rebound off December's low.
March feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $92.25.

March Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday and spiked below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.20. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 92.20 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off December's low, November's high crossing at 101.20 is the next upside target.

By INO.com

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