Stocks, Interest Rates, Dollar and Commodities Mega-trend Forecasts 2009
Stock-Markets / Investing 2009 Dec 30, 2008 - 11:10 AM GMT
Tony Sagami writes: 2008 has been a very difficult year for investors. And most are eager to put it behind them while hoping for a better 2009.
I don't have a crystal ball. But I believe there are five powerful trends that can destroy or enrich your portfolio next year …
Powerful Trend #1 — The U.S. Stock Market Is Headed Lower. A Lot Lower …
I don't believe we've seen the last of the exploding, financial time bombs.
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| The Dow could tumble several thousand more points before it hits bottom. |
What's more, I expect:
- Real estate prices will continue falling,
- Unemployment will continue rising,
- Our economy will continue contracting, and
- Our stock market will reflect the deterioration of those long-term, systemic economic woes.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is below 9,000. And I believe the Dow could lose SEVERAL THOUSAND more points before it finally bottoms.
Your opportunity: Selling on strength is my #1 recommendation for 2009. That means taking advantage of rallies to pare back your U.S. stock holdings.
Powerful Trend #2 — The U.S. Dollar Is Headed Lower. A Lot Lower …
The cost of bailing out our county's financial institutions alone will be at least $5 trillion. And that's just the beginning of the trillions of dollars in loans, grants, guarantees, and other programs being cooked up!
So our politicians have a whole lot more spending to do. Those humongous spending plans, combined with our already swelling budget deficits, make the U.S. look like an irresponsible spendthrift to the rest of the world.
Smart international investors do not want to hold what will become devalued dollars. And one of the best moves you can make is to diversity into non-dollar denominated assets.
Your opportunity: Consider international bonds funds, such as the Prudent Global Income Fund (PSAFX) or the T. Rowe Price International Bond Fund (RPIBX).
Powerful Trend #3 — Interest Rates Are Headed Higher. A Lot Higher …
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| The Treasury Department will need to crank up its printing presses to an unprecedented speed to pay for all the commitments Washington is making. |
Inflation always has been, and always will be, a monetary phenomenon where too many dollars are chasing too few goods.
Our national debt is $10.6 trillion and going up by $3.49 billion a day. That's $34,723 in debt for each and every U.S. citizen.
To pay the interest on this debt and finance even more massive bailout plans, Hank Paulson will order the Treasury Department to crank up its printing presses to an unprecedented speed.
The consequences: At some point in the near future, the flood of newly created dollars is going to send inflation and long-term interest rates to the moon.
Your opportunity: Consider inverse bond funds that actually increase in value when interest rates are rising, such as the Rydex Inverse Gov Long Bond Strategy Inv Fund (RYJUX) or the ProFunds Rising Rates Opportunity Fund (RRPIX).
Powerful Trend #4 — Commodity Prices, Including Energy, Will Be Higher 12 Months From Now …
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| Energy prices will resume their upward spiral as worldwide demand outpaces supply. |
I used to spend $100 filling up my full-size SUV. So I appreciate falling energy prices as much as anybody. But I don't expect low prices to last for long.
The growing emerging market economies and the other supply/demand factors that sent oil prices to $150 earlier this year are still in force today. Perhaps not at the previous gangbuster pace, but certainly at a pace that is enough to steadily push commodity prices higher over time.
Your opportunity: The price of natural resource and energy stocks are down — way, way down. And companies with solid, tangible assets will be among the best performing stocks to own in the coming years.
That's why this is the time to start accumulating shares in commodity kings like Barrick Gold (ABX), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), CNOOC Ltd. (COE), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Cameco (CCJ).
Powerful Trend #5 — Asian Markets Are Headed Lower. But Will Bounce Like A Superball …
I don't care what part of the world you pick — Europe, North America, South America, or Asia — the short-term outlook is not good. The long-term outlook varies greatly around the globe.
And right now, it's the brightest in Asia in general, and China in particular, where I expect the rebound to be very powerful.
The Chinese economy is a multi-decade story. And there will be plenty of ‘ten baggers' to be found amidst the beaten down diamonds.
Your opportunity: Take advantage of any dips to add quality Asian stocks — like New Oriental Education (EDU) and China Mobile (CHL) — to your portfolio.
The bottom line of my end-of-the-year message: Success in 2009 will require both caution and guts …
Caution to keep your portfolio intact and to raise cash whenever possible. And the guts to buy when things seem the worst.
Best wishes for 2009!
Tony
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