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Investment Opportunity in Municipal Bonds

Interest-Rates / US Bonds Dec 29, 2008 - 03:40 PM GMT

By: John_Derrick

Interest-Rates Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe all know that 2008 has been a rough year for virtually all investors, and the municipal market has not been immune. Municipals, however, have weathered the storm better than most asset classes.


Over the long term, municipals have “provided strong taxable-equivalent returns with lower volatility relative to their taxable counterparts,” according to Barclays Capital. The chart below shows the relative risk and after-tax performance of major equity and fixed income asset classes.

Comparison of Taxable Equivalent Returns and Volatility of Municipals and Other Asset Classes

Tax-exempt municipals (marked as “TE Muni” on the chart) have provided higher levels of after-tax returns than Treasuries or corporate bonds over the past 10 years, and these returns have come with lower volatility, as measured by annual standard deviation of returns.

The current market environment has witnessed numerous market dislocations that have led to extreme moves due to fear and greed. These dislocations produce both opportunities and threats, but now a significant opportunity appears to be at hand for municipals.

The chart below shows the historical relationship between the 10-year Treasury and high-quality municipal bonds of the same duration. Since 1991, 10-year municipals have traded within a range of 70 percent to 100 percent of the equivalent Treasury, with the average around 83 percent. Historically, the lower yield of municipals compared to Treasuries is due to credit quality characteristics and federal income tax exemption.

Municipals as a Percentage of 10-Year Treasuries

Ten-year municipals are currently trading at roughly double the yields that can be found in 10-year Treasuries, and this is occurring in a safety-minded market in which they would normally trade at a discount.

As of last Friday, 10-year municipals were yielding 4.27 percent, compared to 2.13 percent for the equivalent Treasury. On a tax-equivalent basis, the municipal yield is comparable to a taxable bond yield of 6.57 percent for investors in the highest tax bracket.

We have witnessed many firsts over the past year, and this appears to be yet another one. For those who appreciate history and understand the current market dynamics, this unusual situation could represent an investment opportunity worth considering.

---------------

John Derrick is Director of Research at U.S. Global Investors, Inc., a boutique investment advisory firm based in San Antonio that specializes in the natural resources and emerging markets sectors. Mr. Derrick is also the co-manager of the Near-Term Tax Free Fund (NEARX) .

Mr. Derrick is also a contributor to U.S. Global's investment blog, “Frank Talk” .

Please consider carefully the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting www.usfunds.com or by calling 1-800-US-FUNDS (1-800-873-8637). Read it carefully before investing. Distributed by U.S. Global Brokerage, Inc.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. Gold funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The price of gold is subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in gold or gold stocks. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more of U.S. Global Investors family of funds as of 12-31-07 : streetTRACKS Gold Trust.

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