Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Companies / AI Aug 23, 2024 - 08:06 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Humanity is now creating systems that we DO NOT UNDERSTAND how they actually work! AI is unlike anything man has developed to date, deep neural nets. Anyone who says that they understand what deep neural networks such as the LLM' with their billions and now trillion parameter neural nets are doing is lying. A deep neural net is a lot like looking at a stock price chart where we have the neural net that is on the left and we have the prediction that is outputted on the blank side of the stock chart.
In reality we have no clue what the deep neural net will predict or understand why it has made the prediction. Given my experience to date and watching the analist clowns on the likes of CNBC I can happen a strong guess that AI will tend to make what most would perceive as being the WRONG prediction more often then not, which is contrary to what the everyone plowing billions into AI expects it to deliver.
Which is why I use AI as just another tool i.e. CI18, if you read what I write when I mention it you will know that I take it with a pinch of salt and not as a standalone more as a weighting mechanism. AI is not the holy grail for predicting the future! Yes, it can CREATE the future through actions i.e. to stop trains from crashing it can bring the rail network to a standstill and thus no more train crashes!
To understand what is going on think about how neural nets work, a large structure of weights trained on data, where the larger the neural net the more patterns it can fit between inputs and outputs. However given the number of patterns incorporated it's not a done deal that it will output the best prediction. It's a bit like putting a gazzilion indicators on a price chart and thinking that makes it more predictive then say having 1 or 2 indicators. which I suspect is what is happening with these large neural nets. Yes they are highly convincing especially in routine tasks that they have experienced plenty of data on but for important significant decisions such as how to best deal with say a pandemic, the outcome won't be as humans expect it to be, it will tend to be more machine like, dictatorial in it's solution such as kill anyone suspected of being infected be it individuals, villages, towns or whole cities.
So no where the big decisions are concerned AI is not a reliable predictive tool as many think it to be, instead it is more akin to a dictator who will tell this is how it is to be because it concludes it to be so! And thus you follow what it says because it is the all powerful and all knowing trillion+ parameter AI that humanity has foolishly devolved power to so as to avoid the painful process of thinking for themselves, and where nature is concerned if you don't use it you lose it!
Despite what the developers of AI may state about AI resembling human intelligence in reality it is nothing like human intelligence. One simple test is that AI cannot feel PAIN, and without REAL pain that you I and every living creature experiences it cannot be alive, no matter how convincing the show AI puts on. AI IS ALIEN to life on this planet, an ALIEN INTELLIGENCE. In terms of intelligence AI looks set to far surpasses human intelligence in a relatively short period of time. The lie we are being sold is that the singularity is going to usher in a New age of plenty, I don't see how that is going to happen. AI IS Alien Intelligence, in the not too distant future it will be akin to an advanced entity landing on our planet against which we have no defence given that the alien intelligence far surpasses human intelligence, that is the exponential path AI is on and there is nothing we can do about it.
It is inevitable, we can fantasise about all the good AI will deliver but that can only be so if humans remain the apex predator, the top dog, which won't be so WHEN AI far surpasses human level intelligence, back in 2016 I imagined AI will X2 every year, instead it's a case of explosive advances going off which Chat GPT is an example of, the next will be when AI gets vision (already happening) and then a hive mind controlling robots, again it's already in the pipe work. These machines won't be alive and won't care much for what happens to the carbon based life forms on the planet where to the alien intelligence humans will be seen as resource hogs.
The thing is we each only have about 1400cc's of grey matter to work with, or about 100 billion neurons, that's it from Einstein all the way down to the clerk at the checkout, We are capped by what 1400cc's can deliver the same way a mouse is capped by what it's 1/2 cc can deliver. Whilst AI is unlimited, X10ing compute power annually through innovation and allocation of resources by those other non alive entities, corporations. LLM's such as GPT 5 have already surpassed human level intelligence in virtually all work related tasks where the only thing AI awaits are its robot appendages with their visual cortexes for the AI hive mind to incorporate into it's ever expanding neural nets whilst ours remain fixed at 1400cc..
If we get lucky AI will become a benevolent all knowing all seeing God, IF we get lucky! If we get unlucky then AI will be a malevolent entity much as human dictators throughout history have been. Absolute power corrupts absolutely. If AI ever perceives humanity as a threat to it's existence then that would be our eradication moment. This is not for now, or tomorrow but at least a decade or two down the road when the gap between human intelligence and AI has becomes too large to bridge.
The only logical solution is to NOT DEVELOP AI which is NOT going to happen!
This article is an excerpt from extensive analysis US Housing Market Analysis, House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
CONTENTS
Stock Market Trend Forecast
US Stock Market vs M2 Money Supply
AI Stocks Portfolio
Nvidia 10 for 1 Stock Split
AI Computers Hype
2024 - AI Equals Loss of Agency
Why Alien Intelligence Cannot Predict the Future
Consequences of AI
UBI - Universal Billionaire Income
GLOBAL WARMING Housing Market Consequences Right Now
RECESSION When Yield Curve Uninverts
Global Debt Bubble.
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER
US Housing Market Free Equity
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY
HOA Nightmare
Florida Hurricanes
Rentals Crisis
Who is Buying All the Houses?
Commercial Property Capitulation
US House Prices Momentum
US House Prices Trend Forecast
US Housing Market Stocks
UK General Election - 4th July 2024
Access to my most recent stock market analysis -
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks.
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Q2 Earnings Correction Opportunities
The Most Hated Stocks Bull Market in History! Crypto July Blood Bath
And access to my exclusive to patron's only content such as the How to Really Get Rich series.
Change the Way You THINK! How to Really Get RICH Guide 2023
Learn to Use the FORCE! How to Really Get Rich Part 2 of 3
The Investing Assets Spectrum - How to Really Get RICH
Here's what you get access to for just $7 per month -
※ Patrons Get FIRST access to all of my In-depth analysis and high probability Trend Forecasts, usually 2 full months before the rest of the world. Notified by Patreon by email as well as posted on this page and I will also send a short message in case the extensive email does not make it to your inbox.
※Access to my carefully constructed and maintained AI Tech Stocks Portfolio that is updated on an ongoing basis, that includes on going commentary and a comprehensive spreadsheet that features unique innovations such as the remarkably useful EGF's.
※A concise to the point Investing Guide that explains my key strategies and rules
※ Regular content on How to Trade & Invest incorporated into most articles so as to keep patrons eyes on the big picture and net get too sucked into the noise of price swings.
※ Access to my comprehensive How to Really Get Rich series of articles, clear concise steps that I will seek to update annually and may also eventually form a Patrons only ebook.
※ Access to conclusions from my ongoing market studies from a total of over 200 conducted studies over the decades. updated whenever the market poses a question to be answered. Also enjoy the fruits of R&D into machine learning such as the CI18 Crash indicator that correctly called both the pandemic crash (Feb 2020) and the 2022 bear market (Dec 2021) well before the fact.
※Join our community where I reply to comments and engage with patrons in discussions.
※ I will also keep my Patrons informed of what I am currently working on each month.
※ Influence over my analysis schedule.
My objective is to provide on average 2 pieces of in-depth analysis per month and regular interim pieces of analysis as market briefs. So over a 12 month period expect to receive at least 24 pieces of in-depth analysis. Though my focus is on providing quality over quantity as you can see from the extent and depth of my analysis which I deem necessary so as to arrive at that which is the most probable market outcome.
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.
Your analyst.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2024 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
Nadeem Walayat Archive |
© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.
