Stock Market Trend Forecasts for 2024 and 2025
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024 May 21, 2024 - 03:33 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Folk ask when will the S&P index correct? This is the problem when investors stare at the S&P they MISS the corrections in key target stocks! Google fell to $130. down 15% from it's high as I pointed out at the time as I accumulated more that it would likely soon reverse higher to target $160+, and then there is TESLA that traded down to a DEEP 47% deviation from it's $299 bull market high, with a dozen more opps to accumulate into, the likes of Redfin, Flex, Apple, ALB, BHP, CCJ, DIODE, GFS, Baidu, BDEV, Corsair, Unity and so on all whilst most remained focus on the S&O.... I keep saying to forget about the indices and focus on the individual target stocks but folk keep making the same mistake of waiting for the S&P to move before they decide to act. The S&P is just a cap weighted average, it does not reflect what most target stocks are doing and thus opps to buy and sell get missed by staring at the S&P nothing burger. The S&P should be treated as a stand alone market to trade or invest in..
Stock Market trend forecast for 2024 is for the S&P to target a trend to 5376 by the end of the year, along with to expect upto 3 corrections with target swing lows in March, June and October.
S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024
S&P 5149, index that is the focus of most is showing relative strength against the trend forecast despite many target stocks having experienced deep corrections i.e. Google 15%, Tesla 47%. which implies -
1. That the S&P looks set to surprise to the upside by trending to well beyond the target of 5376 to likely see a year high above 5600.
2. That the failure for a correction to materialise increases the probability for the subsequent two corrections i.e. last year there were 2 corrections, so the highest probability was to expect at least 2 corrections this year with a third correction being more probable than not and given that last year the June correction failed to materialise then this year implied either March or October could fail to materialise, well now we know which correction failed materialise.
3, Corrections being the operative word, remember we are in a BULL MARKET where last years two deep corrections in percentage terms spoiled us to some degree i.e. conditioned us to expect corrections of similar magnitude going forward.
The S&P's strength going into Mid March is in stark contrast to 2 months ago (Mid January) when many were panicking in the wake of the Church of the Almanac Trifecta nothing burger (Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's ), the January dip triggering much fear.
In terms for the immediate prospects, the S&P is very over extended both in terms of price and time, but it is NOT correcting, and so it could weakly continue snaking higher into early May which would chime well for Sell in May and go Away which tends to fail more often then not, i.e. it failed for 2023 and the 2022 bear market, AND for 2021 and 2020! That's four years in a row when the Sell in May and Go Away mantra FAILED to deliver! So four failures in a row should increase the probability for a hit thus year, especially as the INDEX failed to correct in it's Feb to March window and so is setting the scene for a correction during May and June.
(Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com)
Extrapolating the relative strength further out then preliminary analysis suggests that the S&P could blast through 6000 to trade to above 6100 before the end of next year. So all whilst most fear investing because a big drop could just be around the corner what they will actually witness is a relentless 2 year bull market ahead of them.
Swings Analysis
S&P swing topped at 5189 on 8th March, up 64 days from the 4th Jan swing low which suggests to expect short sharp minor down swing into late March, targeting 5040 before the next swing higher into early May to 5300+ for a more significant correction. during May and June. How deep? Depends on where the S&P tops out i.e. if the last high of 5189 manages to hold then I would expect the correction to target 4800 for an approx 7% correction, if from a 5300 top then targets a 7% drop to 4930 during May-June.
Bottom line we are in a bull market and in a bull market stock prices tend to go up, thus if you see a deviation from the high in target stocks. don't over think things because such price action is living in borrowed time as we saw with Google which I pointed out at the time that Google had corrected 14% down to $130, so even if the S&P did correct its more probable than not that Google will be higher than where it is now given that it has already corrected.
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Contents
Stock Market Trend Forecast
Swings Analysis
AI Stocks Portfolio
TESLA
Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger
Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun
Time to take the RED Pill
Crypto Correction
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bull Market Tops
Crypto's Exit Strategy
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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