Bitcoin Price Swings Analysis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just as the 2021 Bitcoin bull market illustrated one can expect sizeable corrections during this bull market following a break to a new all time high in addition to the 10% intra-day swings where 2021 saw 3 major down swings of -31%, -25%, and -17% before the mini bear market ahead of the actual final high.

However, the swings to date averaging just -20% for THIS bull market have been a lot milder to date. So it's a choice between using the previous bull markets swings or this bull markets swings in attempts to extrapolate how the tops and bottoms will play out. However, given that most recent price action is more important than for this exercise I have gone with the most recent swings as likely to be more representative of what could come to pass.

Swings analysis suggests Bitcoin is targeting at least $75k before the halving, followed by it's first major post new all time high correction of -19% to take the bitcoin price down to $61k before we see Bitcoins epic post halving bull run to over $100k. Whilst peak to trough .corrections will tend to be about -20%.

I also include a projection for MSTR to coincide with BTC $75k that has already been achieved Monday at BTC $69k which thus warrants an additional study of MSTR Swings as to how high this Bitcoin proxy could go during the bull market.

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By Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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