Formulating a Stock Market Trend Forecast for 2023

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023 Dec 28, 2022 - 06:37 AM GMT

The character of this bear market has been changing since the June low, first came the break above 33.3k into the August FOMO peak. and then came the decline to 28.7k that whilst a new bear market low was weak in trend channel terms.

so what is going on?

ACCUMULATION is what's going on, Accumulating since the June low. It should be fairly obvious that there is a lot of buying gone on and market manipulation so as to allow it to happen. It's as though the wolfs of wall street are leading the retail investor lambs to slaughter as the retail crowd are dealt hammer blows in either direction aimed at fleecing them of their wealth.

The smart money is accumulating! All whilst MSM and the blogosfear literally paint a perpetual picture of DOOM and FEAR that they STILL sustain despite what we witnessed earlier this week! INVESTORS have been conditioned to expect the likes of S&P 3200 as a done deal, when the reality is NOTHING is a done deal!

Furthermore even thought the purpose of this analysis is to conclude in a Dow trend forecast, I consider the indices to be a red herring, as it's all about the stocks! Many great stocks are trading at huge discounts to the indices for instance Qualcom on a PE of 10! AMD 17, TSMC 14, AMAT 11, Micron 6, Lam Research 12 and so on. This is what investing is all about, identifying good stocks and accumulating them when they are cheap, the indices are a side show, but they remain the focus of most.

Having scoured this analysis a dozen times what sticks out the most in terms of weighting are

1. that valuations HAVE moderated and will continue to do so. So gone are the ridiculous P/E's of late 2021.

2. A recession is brewing, due to hit the US during the 2nd half of 2023 in advance of which the Fed will have completed it's rate hikes to probably well below the markets worst expectations i.e. they may not even make it to 4%.

3. This is not really a bear market, to me it does not feel like a bear market. Where is the PANIC? Okay so the uK did panic, but the decline in the indices has been orderly. The swings are orderly, muted even as though engineered, this is evident by the failure of the VIX to spike instead unnaturally has remained range bound.

4. Bond markets have done their worst and look like they are bottoming..

5. Seasonal analysis and the Presidential election cycle are painting a compelling picture for a strong 2023. After all a strong down year tends to be followed by a strong up year.

Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast September 2022 to December 2023

This article is an excerpt from my extensive analysis that concludes in detailed stock market trend forecast into the end of 2023 Stocks Bear Market Max PAIN - Trend Forecast Analysis to Dec 2023 - Part1 was was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock it in now as $4 per month as this rises to $5 per month in the new year.

Most recent analysis includes -

So for immediate first access to to all of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule:

UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
Stock Market Trend Forecast to December 2023 - Complete
US House Prices Trend Forecast - 80%
Global Housing / Investing Markets - 50%
US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
State of the Crypto Markets
Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
How to Get Rich - 85%

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat. Lock in now as this increases to $5 per month in the new year.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your mega-trend investing analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.