Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022 Aug 13, 2022 - 12:16 AM GMT

QCOM illustrates how the bottoms will tend to play out for most of the AI tech stocks, for if you are not already invested then you will likely end up waiting for the second chance to buy near the bottom all the way towards new all time highs. For instance I would be surprised if we see anywhere near $118 on Qualcom again, I may be wrong but I am assuming there are a lot of investors now wishing they had bought near $120 and are thus eager for another bite at the cherry.

The higher the current Qualcom price swing travels then the higher will be Qualcom's next swing low. Of course there is the chance of a lemmings induced panic event that results in the so called CAPITULATION, as if CAPITULATION is a magic word! Abracadabra the bottom is in! Yes, maybe in hindsight after stocks have bottomed and rocketed higher, which is the problem with technical analysis in that it tends to be EXCELLANT when used in hindsight, but the present is always deemed to be a near coin flip, i.e. so called analysts nearly always resolve in that the market form where could go either higher or lower. That's what TA delivers, a COIN FLIP going forward but which is crystal clear in hindsight! Instead there needs to be a road map of sorts against which one can at least have a measure strength or weakness without the benefit of hindsight.

Late last week the S&P briefly managed to nudge above 4000 before closing Friday at 3962, which as of writing is where the S&P futures remain little changed pre open. The bear market rally is now getting a little long in the tooth and so despite setting a new swing high it clearly does not want to go significantly higher ahead of Big Tech earnings, FED Meeting AND Q2 GDP data, so a busy and probable volatile week ahead.

In terms of the impact of earnings (see below) the stock market should see the bear rally continue early week, probably into Wednesday to deliver close to my S&P target of 4080, after which the market is going to be buffeted by earnings and economic data with likely Thursday and Friday being rough days for the market following release of what I expect to be BAD Apple and Amazon results that will act as fuel to deliver the next swing down, unless both stocks deliver positive earnings surprises (which I doubt).

This article is an excerpt from my recent analysis on the state of the stocks bear market and more Qualcom Harbinger, AI Predicts Future Stock Prices 3 Years Ahead, China Bank Runs was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Most recent analysis includes -

Whilst my recent in-depth analysis is - UK House Prices Three Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025, where I pealed away every layer of the UK housing market I could think of to arrive at a high probability of trend forecast, no following of the consensus herd here! Whilst completion of my extensive analysis of the US housing market is imminent.

UK House Prices Trend Forecast 2022 to 2025

THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND
WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING
High Inflation Forecast for Whole of this Decade Due to Rampant Money Printing
Fed Inflation Strategy Revealed
Russian Sanctions Stagflation Driver
RECESSION RISKS 2023
UK Debt Inflation Smoking Gun
Britains' Hyper Housing Market
UK Population Growth Forecast 2010 to 2030
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis
UK Over Crowding Ratio
Overcrowding Implications for UK House Prices
UK Housing Market Affordability
UK House Prices Real Terms Sustainable Trend
UK House Prices Relative to GDP Growth
UK House Prices Momentum Forecast
UK House Prices and the Inflation Mega-trend
Lets Get Jiggy With UK INTEREST RATES
Is the US Yield Curve Inversion Broken?
UK house Prices and Yield Curve Inversions
Interest Rates How High WIll they Go?
Work From Home Inflationary BOOM?
Formulating a UK House Prices Forecast
UK House Prices 2022 to 2025 Trend Forecast Conclusion
Peering into the Mists of TIme
Risks to the Forecasts
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2022-2024

So if you want immediate access to a high probability trend forecast of UK house prices, with US and global housing markets analysis to follow soon then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

My Main Analysis Schedule

UK House Prices Trend Forecast - Complete
US House Prices Trend Forecast - 85%
Global Housing / Investing Markets - 60%
US Dollar / British Pound Trend Forecasts - 0%
Stock Market Trend forecast into End 2022 - 0%
High Risk Stocks Update - Health / Biotech Focus - 0%
How to Get Rich - 85%
Gold and Silver Analysis - 0%
State of the Crypto Markets

Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your watching the British pound burn at the official rate of 9.4% per annum analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.