AMAZON the Dark Horse Stock
Companies / Amazon Apr 06, 2022 - 05:13 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Blasted off into space on strong earnings just as I was getting ready to gorge on it's post earnings corpse Facebook style. Still I had built a sizeable stake via dozens of small orders in the lead up to the earnings report which painted a picture of a stock that looks set to put earnings (profits) before reinvestments, or it could be just a one off, i.e. cashing on the Christmas trade boosted by the last pandemic wave of any significance.
My current exposure has fallen a little to 1.7% from 1.9% of the week before as I took the rally to and ABOVE $3,200 to take profits in advance of further buying opportunities in Amazon later, especially if it comes anywhere near filling it's distant buying levels. The PE drops to 48.7 but on the EGF basis the PE falls to 28 hence why the stock popped higher so strongly.
The stock price short up like a rocket which acts as a timely reminder that most investors, perhaps 99% should NOT short stocks! This is what happens! Amazon looked like a sure bet for a earnings induced drop and look what it DID! DO NOT SHORT STOCKS because SODS LAW ensures you WILL LOSE BIG! Right now I am a seller above $3,200, the higher the stock goes the more I will sell, maybe not to the point of selling all or even most of my position but I could easily reduce it to 1% of portfolio from current 1.7% if I see it the stock trade above $3,200. The stock price 'should' succumb to gravity which means it should trade below $2900 once more. Though given the price action it's a tough call for Amazon to fulfill it's far distant buying level of $2288 which is what I was expecting Amazon to achieve., Still I continue to retain that distant limit order in case it eventually comes good.. However, I will be accumulating a series of small buys sub $2900, with the objective of building my exposure to 2% of portfolio, and further towards max exposure of about 4% of portfolio . The chart clearly shows that there are too many buying levels clustered together, therefore one can skip 2642 and go straight for 2526 and $2288, with the baby buys remaining at between $2832 and now down to $2642.
So to recap I am selling (taking profits) above $3,200 with a view to buying SMALL BELOW $2800 to build up my position to 2% from the current 1.7% (or less if I sell more today), with my big buys to take place below $2600, in fact my one and only large limit order is in place at $2288. So apart form small buys I may just hold off buying big altogether and see if $2288 gets filled or not. After all Amazon remains a borderline Primary AI stock.
This article is an excerpt from my recent in-depth analysis that mapped out how low AI tech stocks could trade during the stock market panic of 2022.
Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Content:
m = f - Everything is Waving!
How to Invest in Stocks 20202 and Beyond
Stock Market Calm In the Eye of the Storm
Stock Market Forward Guidance
50% DRAWDOWNS ARE THE NORM!
Current State of Draw downs
Quantum AI Stocks Portfolio Current
AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels
Earnings Growth Factor
GOOGLE TO BE SLICIED INTO 20 PIECES!
FACBOOK MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Whilst CNBC Clowns Buy the TOP and SELL the BOTTOM!
MICROSOFT Short and Sharp
Still Waiting to Take a BITE out of APPLE
NVIDIA is ARMless - To Buy or Not to Buy, that is the question.
AMD - The Chip Master
TSMC - The World's Supreme Chip Fabricator
AMAZON the Dark Horse!
ARKK SARK SHORT FUND
That was first made available to patrons who support my work.So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Also access to my most recent analysis focused on continuing to capitalise on the downward spiral in stock price in response to first Inflation Panic and now added to by War Panic.
World War 3 Phase 1 - Putin WINS Ukraine War!
What Putin Plans for Ukraine
JRS.L Capitalising on Russia's War CRASHED Stocks
THE 2020's INFLATION MONSTER!
Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State
Stock Market FOMO Gives Way to FEAR of Buying the Dip
AI Stocks Portfolio Current State With Updated Buying Levels
FACEBOOK Stock 45% CRASH - Game Over for META?
FACEBOOK RINSE AND REPEAT
INVESTING LESSON - HAVE A PLAN AND THEN EXECUTE IT!
HIGH RISK STOCKS - INVEST AND FORGET
High Risk Stocks Portfolio Revised Buying Levels
GROWTH STOCKS TO CAPITALISE ON THE PANIC OF 2022
1. XXXX - RANK 1 - $121.8, PE 7.8, EGF 38%
2. XXXX - RANK 1 - $58.5, PE 9.9, EGF 30%
3. XXXX- RANK 2 - $16.7, PE 8.7, EGF 33%
4. XXXX - RANK 2 - $89.5, PE 17.2, EGF 23%
5. XXXX - RANK 2 - $49.7 - PE 196, EGF 188%
And gain access to my recent timely analysis lays out how to invest in during the panic of 2022, to be soon followed by scheduled analysis that continues my trend forecast into the end of 2022.
HOW TO SUCCESSFULLY INVEST IN STOCKS During 2022 and Beyond
CONTENTS:
1. UNDERSTAND WHAT INVESTING IS
2. INVEST IN GOOD COMPANIES
3. UNDERSTAND THAT WHICH ONE IS INVESTING IN
4. STOCK PRICES
5. EARNINGS CATCHUP TRADING RANGE TREND PATTERN
6. EMOTIONAL INVESTING
7. MONITORING AND LIMITING EXPOSURE IS MOST IMPORTANT
8. BUY AND SELL on the Basis of VALUATIONS
9. INVESTORS BIGGEST MISTAKE
10. BEST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
11. WORST TIME TO BUY STOCKS
12. BUY VOLATILITY
13. INVESTING TIME
14. FUND MANAGERS
15. OPTIONS
16 . INFLATION
17. INVEST AND FOREGET
AI Tech Stocks Draw down and End of Year 2022 Price Targets
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
My analysis schedule includes:
- UK House Prices Trend Analysis, including an update for the US and a quick look at Canada and China - 65% done
- Stock Market Trend Forecast into the End of 2022
- How to Get Rich! - 90% done - This is a good 6 month work in progress nearing completion.
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
- Gold Price Trend Analysis - 10%
Again for immediate access to all my work do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $4 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Your analyst capitalising on stock market panic selling
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 35 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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