Bitcoin BTC Trend Analysis

Currencies / Bitcoin Aug 12, 2021 - 03:09 PM GMT

Bitcoins price action during the first half of 2021 was a classic distribution pattern that had the smart money (you and me) SELLING out of Bitcoin and other crypto positions.

The chart shows a lower high followed by a break of the 48,000 low which resulted in a measuring move to $36k, around which Bitcoin has been gyrating as it works off an over sold state i.e. so that the scared crypto investors after the May blood bath can start to feel bullish once more, hence if you go online you are going to see a lot of chest pounding going on out there in the crypto world that each passing day proclaim that the bottom is in, Bitcoin withstood it's test and thus it's a Wyckoff to the moon! $180k by October and more!

When instead all Bitcoin has done is to gradually undo an oversold state all without having gone anywhere in price which should mean that Bitcoin is preparing for another leg lower that could be on par with the decline from $65k to $31k off of about $44k, so technically Bitcoin price could trade as low as $10k! No I don't expect $10k to be probable but it is possible, nevertheless trend analysis so far continues to suggest that significantly lower prices than $31k are more probable than not. Though the moves will be very volatile because there are a lot of technical traders out there, trading on margin and reacting to price triggering moves thus magnifying the price trends in either direction that and exchanges running stops to their own advantage.

Elliot Wave - Suggests that we have seen the first ABC of a probable 3-3-5 wave pattern. Which means the current pattern is corrective, that could even extend higher back towards the Mid $40,000. That I am sure would lull many crypto maniacs into a false sense of security before the REAL bear market begins in percentage terms i.e. the move from the high ($44k?), will likely exceed the 52% drop from $65k. Anyway gaming a 52% off 44k would suggest a target of $22k. Which I would equate as to the upper end of a bear market target for Bitcoin.

Support - In terms of where a falling Bitcoin price would gravitate towards and find support we have $29k, $23.5k, $20k, $18k, $14k, and then heavy support at $11.5k. At this time I can not imagine Bitcoin could trade lower than $11.5k, but it could, just that sitting here at $40k it seems pretty far fetched.

So in terms of trend analysis bitcoin is WEAK. The obvious target is the previous highs at 20k. and even below that we have support all the way to $14k, that should act as the key target range to accumulate Bitcoin in should such a decline materialise.

Price Pattern - Mega head and shoulders pattern (weak pattern), where a a break of the neckline would measure all the way down to $4000! But it is a weak pattern.

The rest of this extensive analysis of the crypto markets including a detailed Bitcoin price trend forecast has first been made available to Patrons who support my work:

Bitcoin Bear Market Trend Forecast 2021 and Model Crypto Portfolio Buying Levels

Investing in the Tulip Crypto Mania
Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast Review
Lessons Learned
Cathy Crypto Wood's View on Bitcoin
BITCOIN HALVINGS TREND TRAJECTORY
Stock to Flow Infinity and Beyond!
Bitcoin, Crypto's and the Inflation Mega-trend
Black Swan 1 - Will Crypto's Get Banned?
Black Swan 2 - GOOGLE
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BLACK SWAN 4 - Bitcoin 51% Network Attack by China?
Black Swan 5 - Bitcoin is Already Obsolete
US Trending Towards Hyperinflation
BITCOIN TREND ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Bear markets analysis - How low could she blow?
Bitcoin Trend Forecast
Bitcoin Long-term probable Next bull market price target
Alternative Scenarios
My Crypto Bear Market Investing Strategy
Crypto 1 - Ethereum (ETH) $2600
Crypto 2 - Bitcoin $40,375
Crypto 3 - Ravencoin $0.078
Crypto 4 - Cardano $1.59
Crypto 5 - Pokadot $25
Crypto 6 - ChainLink $26
Crypto's 7 to 10
Creating The Perfect Crypto
How to Invest in Crypto Without Getting SCAMMED
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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