Human Brain vs High End Desktop PC in 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Where do we stand on the path towards your desktop computer becoming more intelligent than you! Currently the best retail desktop GPU is the Nvidia RTX 3090 that carries an MSRP of $1500, though the crypto boom means right now it is very difficult to get hold of and even then prices start at $2000 typically rising to $2200. Still it is easier to obtain then the lower skew RTX 3080 that us supposed to sell for $699 but instead available supply is typically being sold on on ebay for $1200-$1400!

Nevertheless how does the processing power of an RTX 3090 GPU compare to that of a human brain. The RTX 3090 has 10,496 parallel processors and operates at 1.7ghz. That converts into 36 teraflops of raw processing power.

The human brain has 80 billion parallel processors (neurons) and operates roughly at 30hz that converts into roughly 1 exoflops of processing power.

Which means the human brain has about 27,778 times the processing power of an RTX 3090 GPU. Though of course this is not taking into account -

a. Energy usage, the human brain operates at about 25 watts per hour whilst the equivalent number of RTX 3090 GPU's would require 9,722 kwatts of power per hour! That's enough to power about 10,000 homes!

b. Memory, an RTX 3090 has 24gb of GDDR6X memory against the human brain which likely has more than 1 million times that!

So we are some way from the point when a high end desktop is going to come anywhere near matching the processing power of a human brain. In fact looking at the above numbers, I think sooner rather than later we will start seeing biological computers, where parallel processing at low power wattage is done trough the use of human neurons. In fact there are already startups such as Cortical Labs working on such solutions.

Meanwhile the primary route towards post human level intelligence remain the super computers where today's top dog is Japan's Fugaku that is twice as powerful as the next system on the list (Oak Ridge Summit) and has 7,630,848 cores with processing power of 442 peta flops, or about HALF that of a human brain!

Back in 2016, I concluded in a video that super computers would start passing the processing power of the human brain during 2021, we'll that forecast will soon become a reality which coupled with Deep learning (AI) means we are soon going to be living in a world where machine intelligence exceeds human understanding and ability to control, and that the trend is exponential from half to equal to ten times within a few short years, so we are fast approaching the point of no return.

And don't forget the impact of Quantum Computers which are pending several breakthroughs such as room temperature super conductors, and multi million qubit machines, where my best guess will start to deliver on what they promise in about 12-15 years time, though given the amount of money that is going to be thrown at the sector could happen sooner, say in 10 years time.

Nevertheless the time to invest in Quantum Computers is NOW, and NOT AFTER the breakthroughs, for the more one researches quantum computing the more one realises how great the potential is of QC has to change every aspect of our lives in terms of modeling that which cannot be modeled accurately today such as the behaviour of molecules hence why I am not worried about the lack of stock performance to date by the likes of IBM and Intel because I know what's coming down the road.

For instance Google in 2016 simulated a pair of Hydrogen atoms using their 56 qubit chip, in 2017 IBM simulated Lithium Hydride (Li-H), and IONG in 2019 simulated water (H2O).

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

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