Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Global Vaccine Race Against Time and Variants

Politics / Coronavirus 2021 Mar 05, 2021 - 03:53 PM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Politics

Despite pandemic fatigue and complacency in too many countries, vaccine inequality will penalize poorer economies, which are also likely to prove more vulnerable to new variants.

In the past month or two, too many countries struggling with COVID-19 have been lulled into fatigue and complacency, despite holiday spikes. Since vaccination drives have begun, the assumption is that pandemic challenge is pretty much behind.

Both assumptions are flawed. Vaccine drives in emerging and developing economies will occur significantly later than in advanced economies. And by then, new variants may test vaccine effectiveness.


The net effect? When high-income economies will eventually open their borders, middle-income economies will be exposed to new strains that could prove more contagious, more protracted and more lethal. And the vulnerability of low-income economies will prove even higher.

Vaccine inequality penalizes poorer economies    

In early February, or two months into the global rollout of coronavirus vaccines, a handful of high-income economies in the West had hoarded 80 percent of the vaccination doses used thus far. There were almost 130 countries with 2.5 billion people that had not been able to administer even a single dose.

The disparity is far greater if China, an upper-middle-income nation, is excluded. In that case, middle-income nations represent nearly half of global coronavirus cases, but just 17 percent of doses administered.

In economies of more than 50 million people, two high-income economies, United States and United Kingdom, have been most active in hoarding vaccines, after each mismanaged the pandemic. They are followed by Turkey, Germany, EU, Italy, and France. Except for Turkey, most middle-income countries come only thereafter, including China, Russia, Bangladesh, Mexico, India and so on (Figure 1).

Figure 1       COVID-19 Vaccine Doses*

* Cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people Feb. 26, 2021

Source: Official data collated by Our World in Data

New variants could prolong the crises                   

Thanks to the failure of multilateral cooperation in the course of the global pandemic, the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths is far higher than initially anticipated. In turn, huge numbers contribute to the rising probability of adverse strains.

In recent months, new variants of the original virus have been spotted in several countries, including UK, Brazil, South Africa, and the US.

In December, scientists in the U.K. stated that the B.1.1.7 variant might be at least 50% more transmissible than the original one in Wuhan. Another variant of great concern is the mutation in South Africa because it seems to involve a genetic change that may help the virus evade the immune system and vaccines.

In January 2020, when the epicenter was still in Wuhan, the sequence 19A dominated existing cases. By March, new mutations had spread in the UK, US and elsewhere (19B and 20A etc.). After half a dozen other major strains, the British variant B.1.1.7 (also known as 20I/501Y.V1 as in the figure) is surging (Figure 2).  

Figure 2       Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus

Frequencies of viral clades of SARS-CoV-2, Jan 2020–Feb 2021

Source: NextStrain; DifferenceGroup.

The nightmare scenario  

In a few months’ time, the proportions may look very different, again. The British variant has surged in just two to three months. Even in countries that lead vaccination drives, critical mass will take months to achieve. Consequently, the frequencies of these viral clades may look very different by summer or fall 2021.

According to latest research, a Californian variant CAL2.0C has surged to account for more than half the cases in the state. By the end of March, it could cover 90% of Californian cases. Reportedly, infections from this variant, already detected in other US states, seem to produce a viral load double that of other variants.

The UK and California variants are each armed with enhanced capabilities. The concern is a nightmare scenario in which the two viruses could meet in a single person, and swap mutations. The outcome could be an even more dangerous strain.

The longer the global pandemic will last, the greater is the probability of more transmissible and lethal variants. Moreover, poorer economies are likely to remain more vulnerable to consequent human costs and economic damage.

Global COVID-19 cases exceed 115 million and deaths almost 2.6 million. Despite deceleration, daily new cases amount to 400,000 and daily deaths over 9,000 (7-day moving average).

The vaccine race is against time and variants - and time is not yet on our side.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served at the India, China and America Institute (US), Shanghai Institute for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see http://www.differencegroup.net/  

© 2021 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Dan Steinbock Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in