US Economic Trends - GDP, Inflation and Unemployment Impact on House Prices 2021
Housing-Market / US Housing Feb 23, 2021 - 05:22 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
GDP
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
Whilst it is a bit early to suggest an economic boom for 2021, still everything is pointing towards at least a 2.5% gain for the year, where the US housing market is LEADING the recovery, which given potential momentum of 10% implies US GDP for 2021 should easily exceed 3% and could nudge above 4% by the end of 2021. Which means that the US will have more than recovered from the pandemic crash by the end of 2021.
US Unemployment
Official US Unemployment should continue to recover from the pandemic collapse, though as my earlier graph illustrates momentum has greatly slowed which means it's going to be tough going to get to pre-corona levels. At best US unemployment could reach 5% by the end of 2021, so still supportive of rising house prices.
US Inflation
CPI, the highly doctored official measure of US inflation stands at just 1.2% for November 2020. Real inflation is far higher, probably quadruple the official rate i.e. at above 4% hence why the likes of US house prices are rocketing higher as the real value of money falls as a consequences of rampant money printing. Still official US inflation of just 1.2% gives the Fed cover to continue printing money and for the Biden administration to go on a socialist spending spree which is supportive of rising house prices. Whilst the expected post Pandemic spending boom will push CPI inflation higher during the second half of 2021. However, this time round one key element is lacking in sustaining any rise in prices which is a tight labour market. And 2021 will be yet another year that the deflationistas' will get very badly wrong.
Therefore high real inflation with rising GDP are BULLISH for US house prices for the duration of 2021.
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
Here is the updated chart for what has transpired since my forecast of April 2019.
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
This article is an excerpt form my recent extensive in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for US house prices into 2021.
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021, AI Stocks and Coronavirus Pandemic Finale Catastrophe
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- US Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US House Prices Trend Forecast Review
- The Inflation Mega-trend QE4EVER
- US House Prices Trend Forecast 2021
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- Intel Fights Back!
- AI Stocks at Start of 2021
The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Including my latest which concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 -
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
- UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
- The Stock Market Big Picture
- Post Covid Economic Boom
- GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
- FED Balance Sheet
- Dow Short-term Analysis
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
- Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
- Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion
Analysis Schedule :
My analysis schedule includes:
- AI Stocks buying levels update
- UK house prices trend forecast
- Bitcoin price trend forecast
- How to Get Rich
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
* AI Stocks Buying Levels for 2021
After the bonanza of 201 it's time for a significant reorganisation of my AI stocks portfolio for 2021 and beyond.
* UK Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021
Will the UK follow the US inflationary lead or has Brexit and Covid combined to press the pause button on the UK housing bull market for 2021?
* Bitcoin trend forecast 2021
Everyone's now bullish on bitcoin at $50k, well my patrons got to buy it at under $10k!
Last two updates forecast conclusions -
17th Sept 2019 Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to hold support at $9,400 in preparations for an assault on $12k, a break of which would target a break of $14k. However if support at $9.4k fails than Bitcoin could trade down as low as $6k BEFORE heading higher.
31st March 2020 - Coronavirus Parabolic Pandemic, Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to mark time by trading down to as low as $7,500 before basing for a run higher to resistance of $10,500 that 'should' break to propel the Bitcoin price towards the next resistance level of $12,000. Thus the bitcoin price could drift lower for the next couple of months or so before resuming a bullish trend as illustrated by this chart.
Your analyst wishing all my Patrons a happy and prosperous covid free 2021
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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